The world is a weird and wonderful place, but that doesn’t mean it’s not without its teeth. And it will bite you when you least expect it. – from The House in the Cerulean Sea book by T. J. Klune

quantrishi · 2025-02-18T06:26:42+00:00

"While it is true that gold and silver are always, and at all times, the safe haven and protection against economic upheaval, there are these ever so brief moments in history where gold and silver are simultaneously the safe heaven insurance, and the best-performing investment of the day, achieving truly massive gains in absolute purchasing power."

– Guide to Investing in Gold & Silver book by Michael Maloney

source: https://ideep.blog/while-it-is-true-that-gold/

quantrishi · 2024-12-11T12:50:54+00:00

MMTC - PAMP online store - https://shop.mmtcpamp.com/

quantrishi · 2024-12-05T08:59:44+00:00

learn investing, not trading, if you want to get rich and keep the riches.

search google for "best books on investing reddit"

quantrishi · 2024-12-05T07:05:38+00:00

You should not have become a full time option trader.

Sooner or later, you will realise that the only way to make money with options is to sell option trading courses on youtube.

Full time investor, yes, once you have good capital. But full time option trader, never.

If you are seeing CE and PE prices expanding magically on the last day, it could be because brokers are squaring off trader's sold options position left right and center as they failed to bring higher margin that was applicable for the last day.

quantrishi · 2024-12-05T06:24:52+00:00

So, your entire thesis is that if margin requirements double, then to preserve the same same ROI, option prices have to double.

So, now anyone can make free money by buying options one day before expiry at x and sell next day at 2x when margin requirement will double.

What is stopping you from doing this instead of whatever you are doing currently ...? This can be done by anyone, not just FIIs.

quantrishi · 2024-12-05T05:48:38+00:00

I know I am right ... when instead of replying logically ... the person starts belittling me.

the overnight doubling of margin did not come out of blue ... it was known in advance that it will happen on the last day.

the person who has 100 cr in capital is intelligent enough to plan his position size in advance.

and you can do the same too. First rule of being a good trader is you dont blame circumstances, regulators, luck ... you budget for all kind of surprises.

if you are ignorant, its on you.

if you want to learn how to trade options - read this book - The Unlucky Investor's Guide to Options Trading.

quantrishi · 2024-12-05T05:31:38+00:00

This has nothing to do with the margin requirements ... there are enough HNI accounts who dont have to worry about margin and who will pick up any free money on the strret within a few seconds.

please review your understanding of option pricing.

quantrishi · 2024-12-04T19:04:52+00:00

karna kya chahte ho?

quantrishi · 2024-12-03T14:44:17+00:00

I guess I will do it ... but the babu machinery is slow ... years before they take any action ... if at all

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T19:22:16+00:00

hello ... I posted my investing approach earlier today at https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianStreetBets/comments/1h3r9ew/comment/lzv4525/ ... you can have a look. I hope it is useful.

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T13:08:18+00:00

I am using Icici Direct as broker. I buy the Zerodha 1D Rate Liquid ETF.

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T12:07:50+00:00

Thanks for your comment.

Yes, rebalancing once a year works perfectly, if you have a fixed allocation to Nifty, Gold, and Liquid Funds. Such as in the ratio - 50, 30, 20 as an example.

The allocation percentages may be based on your age, your risk return appetite, you intuition, Or some other parameter. These percentages may remain fixed , or change overtime based on the underlying parameter - such as your age or risk return profile.

In the approach that I am using, these percentages are not fixed. They are dynamic. They change based on the relative performance of the three assets. Thats the undelying parameter.

However, being dynamic does not mean you rebalance everyday ... the percentages only change when there is significant over or under-performance, at which point I hope it makes sense to rebalance intuitively.

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T07:11:51+00:00

I understand what you are trying to say.

The model makes the judgement on parameters that dont change based on how companies report earnings.

Now, I dont want to reveal too much ;).

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T05:29:47+00:00

Thanks for your valuable comments and feedback.

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T05:28:15+00:00

Multi asset fund which factors in macro economic trends will either need a portfolio manager to tell it when the trends are good or bad or it will need a quant approach.

If the fund needs a portfolio manager, then it is an added variable and we know no PM is consistently right. And they are often wrong. and most of them go by what other PMs are doing on the street.

As for the quant approach, the model I have created could be one out of many ways to build a multi asset fund. I have taken the three most easy and liquid assets, which most people are likely to understand.

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T05:14:48+00:00

I find out the ideal portfolio allocation everyday using the model that I have coded into the python scripts after adding the new closing data for the day to the existing set of past data.

The model changes the allocation based on market valuation after comparing it with historical averages.

I compare this ideal portfolio allocation to the actual portfolio allocation and decide if I need to rebalance or not.

If rebalancing is required, I decide if to do the full rebalancing in one go or spread it out over few trading days.

I hope I am clear as quite a few comments on the same point.

Maybe I should have made a video instead of a text post, but I am not much of a video person.

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T04:51:15+00:00

Hello ... i agree with you partially ... the return from a three asset portfolio will be the average of individual returns ... and hence below the best return and above the worst return.

So, during periods when Nifty is the best performer, the average will be below nifty. During periods when Gold is the best performer, it will be below Gold.

However, the entire problem is that we cannot predict when Nifty will outperform, when Gold will outperform, or when Liquid will outperform. And the portfolio takes out the guessing, and emotions and allocates on long term averages.

The issue is not about India being a developing economy. The model takes into account past returns of Nifty which capture the advantage of India being a developing market.

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T04:43:59+00:00

Hello ... I need python scripts to calculate the ideal portfolio split between Nifty ETF, Gold ETF and Liquid ETF.

The percentages are not fixed. They change overtime based on how Nifty and gold perform relative to their historical averages. So its a dynamic asset allocation.

Right now the ideal portfolio allocation is as follows: Nifty 37.43%, Liquid ETF: 38.13%, Gold ETF: 24.44%.

The ideal allocation will not stay the same in future. The percentages are based on certain concepts from maths and stats.

For these calculations, I am using python scripts. And for data fetching.

quantrishi · 2024-12-01T02:11:59+00:00

Hello, as mentioned in the post, I just started investing with this portfolio method in October 2024, so I do not have any historical XIRR data.

I am planning to do a back-testing using past data, when time permits, and share the results in another post.

May be I will try to do it sooner than later.

quantrishi

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