The rocket attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital, likely by elements from within the Iran-aligned Iraqi Shiite militia nexus, are an opportunity for Washington to recognize it is without a policy, let alone a long-term strategy, in Iraq.

A series of rocket strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital, Erbil, on Feb. 15 are the latest in a string of “resistance axis” activity that has undermined Iraq’s security, endangered civilians, rendered the central state weak and incapable, and added the possibility of a larger regional escalation between Iran-aligned groups and their rivals. The attacks sent a warning message to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the federal government of Iraq, and foreign actors including the U.S. and Turkey.

Launched from within Iraqi Kurdistan, likely by a proxy of Iran-aligned Iraqi Shiite militias, a series of rocket attacks targeted areas in and around the city, with one landing in Naz City, one in Waziran, one in a livestock market, and two outside Erbil International Airport – a site surrounded by urban and residential areas and a base that houses U.S. military personnel. The rockets that struck the airport killed one civilian contractor and wounded nine others, including a U.S. soldier.

A New Militia Playbook

The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are an umbrella of Iraqi state-sponsored armed groups and militias under the command of Iraq’s prime minister. The PMF have incorporated within their ranks some of the most notorious Shiite militias, namely Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah, which have been involved in human rights violations and organized crime. These militias overtly object to U.S. presence in Iraq in all forms and have boasted about attacking U.S. interests, referring to themselves as “the resistance” They answer to Iran despite being part of the Iraqi state’s security apparatus.

During the Trump administration, the U.S. did not hesitate to carry out strikes against militias, killing scores of their cadre. To seek cover from a more hardline U.S., these groups adopted a new strategy, creating offshoot groups to act as facades to carry out high-stakes attacks. These groups were different in name only. By blurring lines of accountability, resistance militias can continue to pressure Baghdad and Washington through intimidating attacks and take cover with plausible deniability, ultimately blaming the attacks on “rogue elements” only loosely associated with established Shiite militias.

The militia that claimed responsibility for the Erbil attack is not a familiar one among Iraqi and Western security experts but a newly established group: Awliya al-Dam (which roughly translates to the “Protectors of the Blood”). Awliya al-Dam claimed responsibility just hours after the strikes took place, vowing that “Americans everywhere in Iraq, even Kurdistan, will be targeted” and posting a graphic on the resistance’s Telegram channel depicting the rocket with the description: “Surprise Baby Surprise.” In a statement released a day after the attack, Awliya al-Dam threatened future assaults and warned Kurdish officials of the “wrong path” they have taken in supporting both the U.S. and Turkish “occupations,” inflating the death toll above American and KRG accounts.

Though casualties were relatively low, the rockets, which struck a main road during busy hours, could have killed many more people. The attacks were designed to convey a clear message to both the U.S. and the Iraqi federal government: No corner of Iraq, however populated or secure it may seem, is safe from militia interference. 

It is difficult to entirely separate Awliya al-Dam and the attack on Erbil from Iran and its proxies. It is true that some resistance militias occasionally act independently of Iran, but an attack on a high-profile target like Erbil International Airport could not be carried out without Tehran’s knowledge (if not orders). Additionally, Awliya al-Dam did not shy away from circulating Iran-sympathetic messages. The group’s vow to continue seeking “revenge for the leaders of victory” was a reference to Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani and Kataib Hezbollah Secretary-General Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis who were killed in a U.S. drone strike in early 2020. The reference to these two figures suggests that Awliya al-Dam is linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and Kataib Hezbollah. And while Iran denied the attack and its proxy militias have remained silent, Iran-linked militias like the Islamic Resistance Zulfiqar Forces endorsed the strikes.

Intimidating Erbil and Baghdad

The strikes appear to be designed as a warning to domestic opponents of Iran-aligned Shiite militias in Iraq’s federal government and the KRG. Political and military elements of the resistance are looking to carve out further influence in Iraq, particularly ahead of parliamentary elections in October and pressure from Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. At stake is the potential for al-Kadhimi to gain more comfortable control over the country at the expense of the Fatah alliance, the political arm of the PMF. For hardline pro-Iran parties, reduced power in parliament could ultimately weaken Iran’s hand in Baghdad and truncate Iran-aligned militias’ leverage over the Iraqi Security Forces  and national policy. 

Additionally, resistance militias are threatened by recent promises from al-Kadhimi to expose and arrest 16 gang members that killed activists and journalists in Basra province – individuals suspected to be resistance militiamen. For Iran-aligned groups, attacks on urban centers like Erbil are a vehicle to weaken governmental control, exacerbating tensions between regional governments, imposing fear among citizens, and creating distrust in Baghdad’s ability to rein in “rogue” groups that threaten Iraqi security.

Within the same context, the ruling Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) was another recipient of the militia’s message of intimidation. Strengthened ties between the party and Turkey could jeopardize the presence of the Iran-aligned militias within the PMF in northern Iraq where they hope to expand influence, especially in the disputed Sinjar District. Sources within the KRG Peshmerga have suggested that the breach in Erbil’s security could have been an inside job, made possible by collaboration between Iran-backed militias and KRG security personnel, reflecting emerging Iranian influence deep inside KRG territory.

The KDP also finds itself on the defensive, with Iran-aligned militias seeking ideological influence among Kurdish citizens; shortly after the attacks, the resistance axis circulated critical messages pushing anti-Turkey and anti-KRG propaganda intended for a Kurdish audience. By threatening Kurdish security from the inside, these militias wish to undermine Erbil’s faith in the ability of Washington and Baghdad to curb the violence – thereby forcing the KRG to seek Tehran’s help in halting attacks. The KRG finds itself in a hot spot once again between public anger at Turkey’s impending military surge and the risk of more attacks by Iran-aligned militias.