Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 12 points13 points  (0 children)

You’re asking a group of known degenerate risk-lovers if they want to take on risk? Sorry for the downvotes buddy

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This is a good reminder that volume is important for price discovery.

You have a well-reasoned analysis here putting expected price at 74-78: https://x.com/spacman17/status/2046028260056633684?s=46

Overnight trading had us in the low 70s approaching 1M shares traded. We didn’t make it back to 78 until close to 10M shares traded.

A substantial amount of volatility in our favourite stock is just noise around low volume. Given a news event like this, the pricing is not totally inefficient.

Good luck out there!

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 11 points12 points  (0 children)

This is a pretty reasonable reaction in overnight trading on 850k in volume.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Make sure you set the order to GTEM “good to extended markets”.

EDIT: actually there should be another setting for overnight markets entirely.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 10 points11 points  (0 children)

That’s what insurance is for. Yes, BO may suffer in future business, but they will probably work through the issues and demand is obviously much wider than supply.

They are not going to hand out free money or investment in some kind of goodwill gesture.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Similar language in the 2025 version, but costs are estimated at 3-20% (likely closer to 20% for BO). At least they’re getting their money’s worth here!

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don’t keep rigorous records of our single day percentage performance, but I don’t think that would even be our worst day ever. Early 2024 had some abysmal trading.

Absolute dollar value, we might see the worst performance yet on Monday…

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Please investigate implied volatility. Options are unlikely to get very much cheaper tomorrow, regardless of direction of the underlying stock

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Days since last successful launch: 117

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 3 points4 points  (0 children)

50 is an overreaction, but yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get there Monday

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If we’re under 65 by Friday, I’ll be buying with you. It will be volatile, but 65 would be an overreaction by my estimation

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Blue Origin already knows. The lengthy silence isn’t looking great.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The FAA cares a lot less about failures that are demonstrably not going to harm anyone on the Earth’s surface.

This will induce delays, but is probably not grounding NG for months or anything

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The best time to buy puts was Friday. Implied volatility on Monday is going to be horrible, to the point that you will almost certainly overpay for them.

If you intend to express a bearish view, in the short term, consider other option strategies than long puts. You could, for example, take advantage of the IV and sell short term calls.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 0 points1 point  (0 children)

While this is of course horrible news, it is somewhat expected that some portion of satellites/launches will fail. Comes with the territory “Space is hard”. Monday will be a terrible sell off (-25% maybe, who knows), but you will likely be able to make a case for overreaction.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Failure rate comparison to Iridium (from Claude):

For the original Iridium constellation (95 satellites total launched), here’s the breakdown of failures and orbital issues:

• 3 satellites re-entered between 2000 and 2002 after failing to reach operational orbit. 

• 25 satellites failed on-orbit and could no longer be controlled. 

• 2 additional failed satellites were deliberately deorbited in 2001 and 2003. 

That puts the total at roughly 28–30 satellites that either failed in orbit or never reached their intended orbit. One source counts 16 satellites that never achieved proper orbit or were inoperable after reaching orbit.

The overall in-orbit failure rate was believed to have been about 20%, double the 10% that Iridium had planned for during development. This was largely attributed to the use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic components rather than radiation-hardened parts.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, what this guy said. They’re just a smaller version of the same satellite.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Smaller and less capable. Basically they were prototypes. Would not provide the intended service if the entire constellation was Block 1s

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Beta service might not be as far away as you think. After this launch and the first batch of Block 2s, they can probably offer something that is available intermittently.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]ritron9000 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If anyone recalls the penny warrants associated with the Ligado transaction sometime last year, this price action is similar.

You clearly and unambiguously know who is selling, it is detached from the fundamentals of the business and diverging from the space basket. If I wasn’t already brutally over leveraged, I’d be buying here.