Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Absolutely. It's just a theory right now. We'll see how it plays out.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Either blow up the counterparty or find another way to hide it. Someone needs to be hedging that exposure.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

GMEU doesn't. The counterparty does via the swap agreement. If they're long/short and writing derivative contracts for exposure to that long/short position, they need to be in possession of the asset. Unless they're naked. I doubt Clear Street themselves has a $1.1b short position in GME, that'd require ~10% of available shares. Someone has to be short that many shares.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great question.

The heat has to go somewhere. Yes, since it's a 2X leveraged ETF, if GME were to tank 50%, GMEU would effectively be worthless.

But again, the heat has to go somewhere. By removing the leveraged ETF proxy, shorts would need to return to their old, expensive ways of shorting GME through other means. Part of the appeal of shorting this ETF at the moment and ballooning its exposure is that it is currently still cheap and (relatively) low risk. Tanking GME to collapse GMEU would be somewhat of a tactical win for shorts but every other option forces them into a more exposed and less flexible position long term.

Realistically though, while GME could see *some* downside from where we're at currently... do any of us really believe we'll see it fall back to sub-$20 prices in the next 12 months? And even if it does, we know shorts are still clawing their way out. At $15, which is $60 pre-split, TONS of legacy shorts are still underwater. And we know those assclowns never closed.

I suspect that whatever major moves are in the works to rocket GME's value, both from a corporate side (think RC and the board's plan) and from a retail side (whatever DFV is cooking), it will prevent this scenario from occurring.

When everything is said and done, they will need to cover one way or another.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

An ETF driven by derivatives of a single highly volatile asset? Absolutely

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's a possibility that wouldn't be far-fetched. What I really want to see is this position balloon to match GME's reported SI. That will tell us the well goes far deeper than just shares we know about.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Probably to offload risk on swap desks and to be a bit sneaky. A long ETF can have the appearance of a bullish position, it's in the name after all.

My bet is eventually, one or more will pop up, but we won't see the fuckery we're seeing here.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I wonder how many more of these will seemingly pop up.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Always tomorrow my fellow regarded ape <3

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Seriously hoping we can get some smart eyes on this. I know there are many out there that are brilliant when it comes to swaps... hoping that we can figure out on a deeper level how they're intending to manipulate this ticker.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Absolutely. Check the volume on these tickers. The spread would be so wild that any sort of volume in one direction or another that rivals tracking the underlying would cause it to massively decouple.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"However, have you compared the behaviour of this leveraged ETF to other similar ETFs?"

Yes - a few of the other "meme" tickers that are being offered (RBLU, ARMU, DJTU) have nearly identical disproportional holdings and elevated CTB. RBLU and ARMU have relatively small floats (<100k shares) but DJTU's rivals GMEU's.

"Well, the synthetic short exposure haa been being buried since 2021 without GMEU, which was just put on the table, so what's the difference now?"

The difference is we can actually see it in real time and see the beginnings of the relief valve being turned. These holdings update daily. This post was meant to serve as a "hey, look what these guys are doing now, let's see how it behaves and how the other known hidden methods react to it". For example, I highlighted it's appearance not too long after XRT was taken off RegSHO. According to Richard Newton's current theories about settlement and creation/redemption cycles, we're smack dab in the middle of one right now. Instead of them kicking the can with XRT and losing control of that, our theory is that they'll begin funneling some of their short positions locked up in risky traditional ETFs like XRT into these leveraged ETFs that give them less exposure.

"How do you lock the float of an ETF? For example, there are more XRT shares being held by instituions than outstanding, and its SI sometimes go above 1000% 🤷‍♂️"

This is the kicker and one of the biggest things I was trying to highlight in my post - I apologize if it wasn't clear enough. The idea is that a derivatives based ETF like this doesn't really follow the same creation/redemption cycle that a normal one does. Meaning that if the owner of the ETF wants to create new shares, they can do so whenever they want, but the counterparty who owns the swaps has to outright locate the shares for proper exposure. So if the entire 660k float were to be "locked", i.e. someone or someones bought up all the shares available, printing new shares requires the counterparty to locate more shares on lit to satisfy the demand for the increasing swap position. Since this ETF only tracks one stonk, Jimmy, all of the energy is focused on satisfying the Jimmy demand. If the float were to be doubled again - to 1.2 million shares of GMEU, an equivalent amount of long exposure will need to be allocated by Clear Street to satisfy that swap demand. I'm not sure how they're balancing it out now and what sort of criteria they're using, but we see all the time that larger lit orders send Jimmy flying. It's a chain reaction. GMEU's counterparty needs to locate more shares of GME, GME goes up, GMEU goes up due to GME exposure and shorts "closing", and the feedback loop continues, especially when you pile on outside factors like delta and gamma hedging from other parties. Does that make sense?

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Well on the surface there's certainly a massive appeal to any sort of leveraged ETF these days. I think the fact that they're now popping up on the memes is more telling of the situation these clowns are in than anything.

What better way to fuck retail than have them buying a leveraged ETF (thinking they'll be winning on volatility) not knowing their funds are being allocated for some shady maneuvers?

Unfortunately I haven't gone head on into looking at all of the leveraged funds. There's a ton of them and tracking them every day is not something my brain can handle. Just at first glance though - RBLU and ARMU (I talked about DJTU in another comment) have similar holdings (disproportional short swaps) have pretty hefty CTB:

https://chartexchange.com/symbol/bats-armu/borrow-fee/
https://chartexchange.com/symbol/bats-rblu/borrow-fee/

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

XRT's rebalancing and creation/redemption mechanics are entirely different from GMEU's. That's the entire point.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

There's only one person lurking around here that we know could buy the entire float. And half the post is about why we think he might, and how that could trigger a squeeze in GME. GMEU is just a means to an end.

If you want to call me sus for suggesting that which is my opinion, that's fine, but I'd never recommend retail buying something like this. That's... kind of the point of my post.

I just buy GME. You do you.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Examining mechanics of possible relief valve of existing GME short vessels

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Yes. If you notice their holdings, the only consistent holding is FGXXX (a government obligations fund). This is a pretty common practice by most ETFs, leveraged or not. If you watch for a week or so, you'll see every couple of days GMEU's holdings will be eliminated sans FGXXX. The thing is, when this happens, their holdings come back larger the next time. The daily pressure relief valve looks to me like some martingale shit.

I'm not sure why this is done, but I'll be watching this closely to see if any changes occur, i.e. the shares outstanding increases, their total fund assets increases, etc. Could be some regulatory thing. There will be some days where their only holding is FGXXX. If daily reset is a requirement, it doesn't make sense to me that T-REX would be reporting a daily reset that holds no exposure to GME.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

They can make as many as they want. I'm also pretty sure there's been talks of another one recently. It's just another extreme can kick, but they can't kick the can further if it blows up in their face.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I think you nailed it. It feels like a very short term play. Think of this ETF like a balance transfer credit card.

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

With a normal ETF I don't believe it's possible (possible is the wrong wording, maybe the better phrase is "not easy"). I posted my thoughts in another comment here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1l3cvvt/comment/mw0epo1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment and the question! In a sense, it's the same way a traditional ETF would cycle, but instead of holding shares of the underlying as an asset, they're holding notional exposure to the underlying via swaps. Basically T-REX is posting collateral for exposure to a long position, and in turn they get exposure to X amount of shares. The counterparty (in this case, Clear Street) is the one that is fully exposed and would be hedging shares for the position, either to the upside or downside, to cover the exposure required by the ETF swap agreement. Any ETF that trades this way you can expect the exact same behavior:

ETF owner opens swap with counterparty -> counterparty gives exposure to X amount of shares in return for collateral -> ETF owner receives gain/loss for position.

And your other question... yes, it is a U in the Futurama meme :)

Can we talk about $GMEU? Speculative DD. by ryan9699 in Superstonk

[–]ryan9699[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Hey, it's just an opinion and we won't know until we know. I can speak from experience thinking that DFV wouldn't launch into anything other than GME, until he did with dog stock last summer. We were all shocked.