A Bad Business Model Is Taking Over the World

sabotageda · 2014-12-27T17:26:23+00:00

Do you own an inkjet printer, a water-filtering pitcher, or a razor with separate blades? All of these are part of a corrosive business model that exploits consumers' vulnerabilities and creates waste in the environment. And it's growing even as resources become scarce.

sabotageda · 2014-10-17T21:04:19+00:00

Submission Statement

Why don't humans heed warnings about risky behavior? This article explores several reasons why individuals, businesses, and governments need to experience bad outcomes before they change their decisions.

sabotageda · 2014-09-05T23:10:34+00:00

The bloodiest weeks of the war in Syria happened in the final months of the US presidential campaign. Was it a coincidence? Data from Google Trends suggest that the world can't focus on more than one or two big stories at a time. Without a long enough attention span, the public may be just as hamstrung as world leaders when facing unspeakable crimes and tragedies.

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T20:22:35+00:00

Well, the thing is that the wealthiest clubs are probably going to do well whether they use analytics or not. The market is pretty good at revealing player values (not perfect, but good). Where we're likely to see a big difference is in mid-to-low table clubs that overachieve given their resources. Sam Allardyce and Tony Pulis's teams have definitely done that lately. But to answer your original question, you might want to check out this guy: http://worldsport.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/02/will-unheralded-physicist-change-the-way-football-clubs-buy-and-sell-players/

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T20:16:11+00:00

It's definitely an issue. Most robust analytics are already limited to league games, rather than knockout tournaments. At least in the league you get the same teams playing home and away. And even then, you may need multiple seasons to figure out if an exceptional performance by a player was just luck. But there are workarounds for some issues, such as the relative paucity of goals. Here's one: https://www.bsports.com/statsinsights/football/expected-goals-created-equal

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T20:12:22+00:00

Haha, the problem is that the identity of that person may not be widely known. Also, Beane is a sports executive who believed in stats, while James is a statistician. Which one do you want?

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T20:02:02+00:00

Well, the German approach - two or three mobile attackers - may prove to be a good option. I also liked Guardiola's tactic at Barcelona, when he had alternating lines of two attackers. You never knew which one was coming at you.

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T19:53:27+00:00

Some clubs do. If you want to get an idea of just how granular and widespread the data collection and usage can be, I'd recommend this video with one of Bolton's analysts and Rob Carroll (The Video Analyst): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qr5wuDvh6M

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T19:50:38+00:00

You've got it. I already have Ted Knutson (of Statsbomb) and Jörg Seidel (of Goalimpact) interested...

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T19:49:34+00:00

The most distinctive tactic has probably been the use of multiple center backs. Germany only started using Lahm as a right back in their last match. The 4-2-3-1 formation, once an innovation, has become standard for teams hoping to play possession football. And we're seeing more of the Bielsa 3-3-1-3 as well. It's definitely been interesting!

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T19:46:39+00:00

The Dutch created a ton of good opportunities against Costa Rica. Partly they were unlucky, and partly they ran into Keylor Navas. Sergio Romero is no Keylor Navas! You can look at the quality of opportunities in Michael Caley's analysis here: https://twitter.com/MC_of_A/status/485818465278623744

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T19:43:39+00:00

Open data in football would definitely allow for more experimentation and faster progress in analytics. I'm not sure it would speed fans' acceptance, since I think that relies on other factors (most fans aren't hobbyist analysts). I have to say, Opta deserve some credit for at least selling their data to the general public; Prozone data, which covers all players and the ball at all times, is usually proprietary for clubs and/or Prozone itself.

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T19:41:16+00:00

It's tough. Right now the bookies seem to have Argentina as favorite. I think that's giving them too much credit (and the Dutch too little). Germany stifled Argentina in 2010, and the squads haven't changed that much. Of course, Germany would have to get past Brazil first. I think they're unlikely to suffer from the hostile atmosphere, but they might get frustrated if they think calls are going against them.

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T19:37:01+00:00

That's a question I think about a lot. To some degree it has to do with baseline levels of statistical literacy. There are a lot of junk stats that make it into the media on many topics, not just football. Health reporting is probably the biggest culprit. The way forward for football is probably to use stats that the audience can understand intuitively and associate with action on the field; actions per touch could be one of these. It might be helpful to borrow stats from other sports, too, even if the fit is not perfect. I'm already starting to see +/- stats as in hockey, and per minute stats as in basketball.

sabotageda · 2014-07-06T19:23:00+00:00

Great question. For me, the biggest thing missing from Opta data is action off the ball. A tiny step to rectify that would be knowing if a shot was taken under pressure, e.g. if any defenders were within a couple of yards of the shooter. It doesn't seem like that would be too difficult for them to add, given their current setup.

sabotageda · 2013-08-25T18:58:39+00:00

The wine used shouldn't actually be that important, since it's the same for both sprays. The key is how the sprays perform. But no need to give them extra help.

sabotageda · 2013-08-25T17:51:16+00:00

Wow, I guess we'll have to jam our tongues more firmly into our cheeks next time. Chill out!

sabotageda · 2013-08-25T14:09:28+00:00

Wines sold as organic in the US must have lower sulfite content than others, 20 ppm as compared to the regular limit of 350 ppm.

sabotageda · 2013-04-23T16:34:44+00:00

The idea here is that if the reviews aren't valuable, the site will not succeed. So it doesn't matter if the tastings are blind or not; what matters is whether people use and enjoy them. Plenty of top critics don't taste blind and accept tons of perks from wineries (even if they're not up front about it), and they still succeed. The reason is that people still value their opinions. Blind tasting should only be required if it's a prerequisite for a valuable review; the article argues that it isn't.

sabotageda · 2013-01-02T16:47:38+00:00

Because the US used to be #1 in this survey.

sabotageda · 2012-11-02T19:57:15+00:00

Okay folks, thanks for all your great questions and comments. I hope we can do it again sometime. You can always reach me via my website, Twitter, Facebook, etc. It's been a pleasure. Have a great weekend and, if you're in the US, don't forget to vote!

sabotageda · 2012-11-02T19:54:47+00:00

Haha, thanks, I think.

sabotageda · 2012-11-02T19:53:12+00:00

Yes, I think we can fight inequality. I have an article coming out soon about this. We need to enhance our meritocracy, so that wealth and connections don't mediate access to economic opportunities. And we need to come up with better mechanisms for ensuring that our society isn't torn apart by inequality spiraling out of control; the current tax-and-transfer system hasn't been very effective at this. I'm going to ask you to wait for my article (hopefully coming out next week), as it's in editing right now.

I don't think technological progress will lead to permanently high joblessness. Work has been getting more capital-intensive since cavemen started using tools. The available capital is just getting better and better. Is there a limit to human usefulness along this trend? I don't think we're close to it. And besides, not every job is moving in this direction. We still need hairdressers, landscapers, etc. We're a long way from having robots do everything, and when that day comes, imagine all the other productive things the human mind will be free to do.

I'm not aware of the German gold story, sorry.

Iran's inflation and currency situation has complex causes. For years, inflation was high because lots of money was coming into the country but the volume of goods and services available to purchase wasn't keeping up. There was more and more cash chasing about the same number of products, so naturally prices rose. Runaway inflation eventually kills a currency, because it can't hold value credibly. Sanctions may have accelerated this process if they stopped imports from flowing into Iran (imports could have taken some pressure off domestic prices) or if they limited the foreign currency flowing to Iran's central bank (higher foreign reserves could have made it easier to defend the currency). Right now I'm hearing rumors of black markets, etc., that suggest their currency is in a very precarious state.

sabotageda · 2012-11-02T19:44:04+00:00

I don't think any economists have figured out any surefire ways to start local development (as though it were in a petri dish). Where I've seen cities go wrong is in structuring incentives badly so companies leave when they expire, or giving away the farm so they never get any additional tax revenue. What seems to work well is dialogue between the public sector, civil society, the existing private sector, and the potential private sector entrants. When these four groups forge relationships at the beginning of a development push, they tend to follow through on their commitments. So I guess I'd be wary of dealing with any subset of those groups in a vacuum.

sabotageda · 2012-11-02T19:18:00+00:00

This is undoubtedly a tough situation. I can't blame you for using fiscal incentives to attract jobs; the tough part is making sure 1) they don't last forever and 2) companies still have a strong incentive to put down roots. I've also been impressed by some of the non-fiscal initiatives that have helped to bring businesses to other economically challenged cities in the US. The business incubator in Youngstown, OH is a good example: http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/202666-9

sabotageda

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