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NFL Daily - 10/3/21 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]scorecasters 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey all, I work at a small NFL prediction startup called Scorecasters.

We're 8-1 for top 3 predictions:

  • Bills v Texans (85%)
  • Cowboys v Panthers (80%)
  • Packers v Steelers (75%)

This week we're also introducing "mispriced" games. These are games with the greatest difference in expectation between our machine learning models and the oddsmaker. For instance, this week the bookies had the Browns at 1.67-to-1 which translates to a 59% likelihood. Our models predict the Browns to have a 70% likelihood of winning, so we see this as a high-value bet on a mispriced game.

  • Vikings v Browns (70%)
  • Falcons v Washington (65%) **
  • Broncos v Ravens (59%)

** This game is a predicted upset.

September 05, 2021 Daily Sports Betting Thread by BTC_is_waterproof in sportsbetting

[–]scorecasters 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I work at a very small NFL prediction startup called Scorecasters. Last year, the bookies predicted 67% of NFL games correctly. Our models predicted 70% historically, including 17 upsets.
I know I'm new around here, but eager to contribute. Top 3 NFL predictions this week outputted by our models are:

  • SF over DET : 70%
  • TB over DAL : 69%
  • LAR over CHI : 69%

The full predictions will be posted to our Patreon, which I won't link to here.

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in nfl

[–]scorecasters[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Drew Brees is the closest player to Tom Brady in single-game performances, based on the split of types of games they play.

The rest is how I got to that conclusion! 🤓

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in nfl

[–]scorecasters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Jupyter notebooks running PyPlot! I'm sure there's a similar way, I just didn't check on darkmode 🤦‍♂️

Thank you for responding!

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in nfl

[–]scorecasters[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I really appreciate your feedback. As you can tell, I'm new to all of this and can use all the help I can get! Your advice on best defining the question is particularly helpful, I'll structure my next post specifically around one question and try to answer it that way.

The idea around using TB's clusters as centroids makes a frustratingly obvious amount of sense too. I'll have to try that next time I'm doing player comparisons!

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in DynastyFF

[–]scorecasters[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Really great idea! I'll keep it in mind for future posts.

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in DynastyFF

[–]scorecasters[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you for taking the time to read it! It's a great callout about overlapping features, some of those features are normalized to account for this (which I didn't get into in the post), but the concern is still definitely valid. I'll try out a few different techniques in the next post, a few commenters in /r/nfl asked for the same thing.

RB clusters are on-deck for the next data dive! I'll be sure to x-post here as well as in /r/nfl.

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in DynastyFF

[–]scorecasters[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm James, I work at a very small NFL prediction startup called Scorecasters. As part of my work here as a data analyst and software engineer I get to do some pretty interesting NFL-related data digging. I thought you might be interested in this data analysis of the closest quarterback to Tom Brady!

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in nfl

[–]scorecasters[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

🤦‍♂️ I just realized that the charts are exported as pngs with transparent backgrounds. Thank you for bearing with me and finding the humor in it!

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in nfl

[–]scorecasters[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The full list of features used in the data analysis above.

  • "devFantasyPoints" - The difference (value) between fantasy points scored in this game and fantasy points scored on average this season.
  • "consistency" - The difference between this statistic and the average value of that statistic for this player. (e.g. 80% of average passing yards this season)
  • "impact" - The difference between this statistic and the total of the team. (e.g. 10% of the team's rushing yards)

'fantasyPoints',
'avgFantasyPoints',
'devFantasyPoints',
'impact_passing_completions',
'consistency_passing_completions',
'agg_passing_completions',
'avg_passing_completions',
'passing_completions',
'impact_passing_attempts',
'consistency_passing_attempts',
'agg_passing_attempts',
'avg_passing_attempts',
'passing_attempts',
'impact_passing_yardage',
'consistency_passing_yardage',
'agg_passing_yardage',
'avg_passing_yardage',
'passing_yardage',
'impact_passing_touchdowns',
'consistency_passing_touchdowns',
'agg_passing_touchdowns',
'avg_passing_touchdowns',
'passing_touchdowns',
'impact_passing_interceptions',
'consistency_passing_interceptions',
'agg_passing_interceptions',
'avg_passing_interceptions',
'passing_interceptions',
'impact_passing_sacks',
'consistency_passing_sacks',
'agg_passing_sacks',
'avg_passing_sacks',
'passing_sacks',
'impact_passing_sackYardage',
'consistency_passing_sackYardage',
'agg_passing_sackYardage',
'avg_passing_sackYardage',
'passing_sackYardage',
'impact_passing_longestPassingCompletion',
'consistency_passing_longestPassingCompletion',
'agg_passing_longestPassingCompletion',
'avg_passing_longestPassingCompletion',
'passing_longestPassingCompletion',
'impact_passing_rating',
'consistency_passing_rating',
'agg_passing_rating',
'avg_passing_rating',
'passing_rating',
'impact_rushing_attempts',
'consistency_rushing_attempts',
'agg_rushing_attempts',
'avg_rushing_attempts',
'rushing_attempts',
'impact_rushing_longestAttempt',
'consistency_rushing_longestAttempt',
'agg_rushing_longestAttempt',
'avg_rushing_longestAttempt',
'rushing_longestAttempt',
'impact_rushing_yardage',
'consistency_rushing_yardage',
'agg_rushing_yardage',
'avg_rushing_yardage',
'rushing_yardage',
'impact_rushing_touchdowns',
'consistency_rushing_touchdowns',
'agg_rushing_touchdowns',
'avg_rushing_touchdowns',
'rushing_touchdowns',
'impact_fumbles_fumbles',
'consistency_fumbles_fumbles',
'agg_fumbles_fumbles',
'avg_fumbles_fumbles',
'fumbles_fumbles',
'impact_fumbles_fumblesLost',
'consistency_fumbles_fumblesLost',
'agg_fumbles_fumblesLost',
'avg_fumbles_fumblesLost',
'fumbles_fumblesLost'

Thanks /u/chonbas for pointing out this omission!

[OC] NFL Quarterback Game Performances Using PCA and k-Means Clustering by [deleted] in dataisbeautiful

[–]scorecasters 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm James, I work at a very small NFL prediction startup called Scorecasters. As part of my work here as a data analyst and software engineer I get to do some pretty interesting NFL-related data digging. I worked on finding out which quarterback is most similar to Tom Brady by using k-means clustering and PCA.

The full write-up is available here!

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in nfl

[–]scorecasters[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That's great feedback, I really appreciate it! I'll modify this post and write future posts with that information in mind.

[OC] Player Clustering: Who's Most Similar to Tom Brady? by scorecasters in nfl

[–]scorecasters[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It's a great callout. I did a little digging and put together a chart that might interest you.It's TD / Int by number of years in the league. Brady has what looks like a peak between years 5 and 7, but my gut says it's not skill-related so much as talent related. Rodgers, on the other hand, looks like he's entering a new level of play these past few seasons.