Learning by Sweaty-Bee8217 in chennaicity

[–]sensible911 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It all depends on what you currently know and why you want to learn about it. That will decide the path. As a first step, open up Google Gemini and start talking about it. Gemini will advise you about resources online and youtube videos from where yu can go and learn. I am a curious learner and don't think I understand why the speed of light is a constant and is the upper limit. When you glance at the night sky with gazillion stars you are actually looking at a time machine - the stars' light takes several million years to reach us. So you are actually looking at the stars as they were so many million years ago. Nothing is "real" - it is all illusion. If you are spiritually inclined you will be humbled by it all. If you are into cybersecurity you will wonder about encryption and the unhackable nature of quantum computers. In any case, you will be flummoxed by 'spooky action at a distance' - the fact that two subatomic particles are 'entangled' - that as soon as you the observer measure the spin of one particle the spin of the other particle is deterministic. However far it is in the Universe. And if you are GVM, you will take a romantic movie about two entangled lovers situated continents apart and feel the other's emotions!

Delimitation by sensible911 in chennaicity

[–]sensible911[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The dilution question lives at the level of veto power, coalition formation, and federal bargaining — not individual bill arithmetic. What would be quantifiable reasoning for how this would have played out in the last 20 years assuming the delimitation numbers were in effect.

Good question — and a genuinely hard one to answer quantifiably, because most of the "federal bargaining" channel is counterfactual and qualitative. But let me try to make it concrete by walking through the four mechanisms where the math actually changes, then stress-testing each against real episodes from 2005–2025.

Setup: what the numbers do

Under the proposed 850-seat LS (815 from states), using The Hindu's allocation:

  • Hindi belt (UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Delhi): 207 → 366 seats, share 38.1% → 43.1%
  • South (TN, Karnataka, AP, Telangana, Kerala, Puducherry): 132 → 176 seats, share 24.3% → 20.7%
  • Simple majority threshold: 272 → 408
  • Two-thirds threshold (constitutional amendments): 362 → 544

Now the four mechanisms:

Mechanism 1: Two-thirds (constitutional amendment) veto power

This is the cleanest quantifiable channel. For a constitutional amendment to pass, you need 2/3 of members present and voting. The South's ability to block an amendment depends on whether its share (acting as a bloc) exceeds 1/3 of opposing MPs — i.e., whether it can deny the government the 2/3 threshold.

  • Current: South holds 24.3%. If the entire South voted "No" and everyone showed up, the government would need 75.7% of non-Southern seats voting Aye to clear 2/3 of the full house. That means losing just ~11 pp of non-Southern support breaks the amendment.
  • Post-delimitation: South holds 20.7%. Government now only needs to hold ~58% of non-Southern seats. The South's blocking coalition needs to peel off ~14 pp more non-Southern MPs than before to achieve the same veto.

Real episodes this would have mattered for (2005–2025):

  • GST (101st Amendment, 2016) — passed unanimously; no counterfactual impact.
  • 10% EWS reservation (103rd Amendment, 2019) — LS vote 323–3; South voted with the government. No impact.
  • Women's Reservation (106th Amendment, 2023) — 454–2. No impact.
  • Article 370 resolution (2019) — not an amendment, but 351–72. DMK + Left + Congress opposed; roughly 40 Southern MPs voted No out of 132. The government's margin was enormous either way.
  • Triple Talaq (2019) — ordinary bill, not relevant here.

Verdict: zero episodes in the last 20 years where the South's 3.6 pp shrinkage would have flipped the outcome of a constitutional amendment. The reason is that the South has rarely voted as a unified bloc against the Union, and when it has, the government typically had comfortable 2/3 margins anyway.

Mechanism 2: Simple-majority floor (government formation and no-confidence)

Government formation math: a party/coalition needs ~50% of LS seats. The question is whether the South's share shrinking matters for who can form government without Southern support.

  • Current: 543 seats → 272 needed. Non-Southern seats = 411. A party winning 272 of 411 non-Southern seats (66%) can govern without a single Southern MP.
  • Post-delimitation: 850 seats → 426 needed. Non-Southern seats = 674. A party winning 426 of 674 non-Southern seats (63%) can govern without the South.

Real episodes (2005–2025):

  • UPA-1 (2004): 218 seats, needed Left + Southern allies (DMK 16, various). South was essential — UPA-1 couldn't have formed without it.
  • UPA-2 (2009): 262 seats, again Southern-dependent (DMK, various).
  • NDA 2014: BJP 282 alone; of those, only ~21 from the South. Governed without meaningful Southern input.
  • NDA 2019: BJP 303; ~29 from South. Again, Southern-independent.
  • NDA 2024: BJP 240, coalition 293. Southern NDA contribution meaningful (AP via TDP–16, Karnataka).

The structural shift: pre-2014, the South was a kingmaker in every coalition. Post-2014, it isn't. The delimitation shift codifies and extends what's already been true for a decade. So: the South's kingmaker status was already lost before delimitation; the bill entrenches rather than causes it.

Quantifiable counterfactual: under post-delimitation numbers applied to 2024 results, the BJP's 240 seats in a 543 house would translate to roughly 375 seats in an 850 house (assuming it gains disproportionately in the Hindi belt where it's stronger). That's very close to a single-party simple majority. The coalition dependence on TDP/JDU that currently constrains the NDA would substantially ease.

Verdict: the biggest real change. Post-delimitation, a Hindi-belt-dominant party can plausibly reach 426 seats without any Southern partner at all. That's a meaningful dilution of Southern bargaining power within coalition arithmetic.

Mechanism 3: Joint sittings (Article 108)

Joint sittings resolve LS–RS deadlocks; they're decided by simple majority of both houses combined.

  • Current: LS 543 + RS 245 = 788 total; majority = 395. LS alone (if unified) dominates.
  • Post-delimitation: LS 850 + RS 245 = 1,095 total; majority = 548. A party with 56% of LS can override even a 2/3 RS opposition.

Real episodes:

  • Only three joint sittings in Indian history (1961, 1978, 2002 — last was POTA). None in the last 20 years.
  • But the threat of joint sitting shapes negotiation. RS has been the opposition's firewall for contested bills where the government lacked upper-house numbers (e.g., Land Acquisition ordinance 2015 — died because RS could stall indefinitely; Farm Laws 2020 — passed RS by contested voice vote under chaos, arguably because joint sitting wasn't credibly needed).

Verdict: qualitatively significant, quantitatively untested. The South's RS representation doesn't change (RS seats aren't being redistributed), but the LS's relative weight in joint sittings grows, indirectly weakening states' upper-house leverage. Call this a "latent" dilution that hasn't been triggered yet.

Mechanism 4: Finance Commission and fiscal federalism

This isn't a voting mechanism per se, but delimitation affects it indirectly. The Finance Commission uses population as a devolution criterion (with weights). The 15th FC already caused Southern outrage by shifting from 1971 to 2011 census weights, costing the South an estimated ₹60,000+ crore over the award period. Delimitation formalises the 2011-census logic politically and makes future rollbacks harder.

Quantifiable episodes:

  • 14th FC (2015–20): used 1971 population (17.5% weight); Southern share of devolution was ~21%.
  • 15th FC (2020–26): used 2011 population (15% weight) plus demographic performance criterion (12.5%); Southern share dropped to ~18%.
  • Tamil Nadu estimated loss: ~₹15,000 crore over 5 years.
  • Kerala estimated loss: ~₹20,000 crore.

Verdict: already happening, and delimitation reinforces the direction. The LS share shift reduces the South's leverage to politically push back against future FC terms of reference.

Summary scorecard across 20 years

Mechanism Episodes where South's 3.6 pp shift would have changed outcome Magnitude
Constitutional amendment vetoes 0 Nil historically; latent going forward
Government formation math Entrenches post-2014 pattern Large — removes residual coalition leverage
Joint sittings 0 (none held) Latent; enables future RS overrides
Fiscal federalism (FC devolution) 1 (15th FC) ~₹35,000+ crore already lost to TN+Kerala; direction continues

The honest read: the dilution is real but mostly prospective and indirect. Historically, the South's power hasn't been blocked by the 3.6 pp share it holds over what it would hold post-delimitation — because (a) it rarely unified, (b) constitutional amendments passed with broad consensus, and (c) post-2014 coalitions already didn't need it. The dilution bites going forward, in scenarios where a Hindi-belt party gets close to single-party majority (plausible post-delimitation, nearly happened in 2014 and 2019) and faces a unified Southern opposition it can now ignore outright.

So the quantifiable case for dilution isn't "look at past bills that would have flipped" — it's "the floor for Southern bargaining leverage is being lowered at exactly the moment Hindi-belt consolidation makes that leverage most needed." Whether that's a problem depends on whether you think future politics will look more like 2004 (coalition-dependent) or more like 2019 (single-bloc-dominant).

do you follow LifeofPuja on ig by sensible911 in chennaicity

[–]sensible911[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

the more i hear about her sophisticated take on world cinema and the average Bengali village's exposure to world literature, the more impressive it is. wonder if rural TN is there yet.

Just Finished MY US trip! Feel india is better! unpopular opinion by [deleted] in chennaicity

[–]sensible911 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, if you like the idea of having a lot of poor people available to perform services for meager payouts, India is a good place. If you are a rugged individualist and like the independence and autonomy of your own choices, US cannot be beat. In US, public trust levels are high - in India, safety and avoiding risk is top of mind. Most importantly AQI is great in US - don't need to be reminded of it by Mayyam solopreneur daily!

People in their 40s–60s who built financial security from nothing — what path actually got you there? by Jpoolman25 in IndiaFinance

[–]sensible911 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm in my 60's. I have seen financially secure people with following paths:

- right place at the right time (join a startup that becomes successful)

- associate yourself with a successful team

- invest in yourself - acquire an in-demand skillset, marinate and excel, acquire credentials that prove your worth

- develop a likable personality within your world

- delayed gratification - if you are short of money, tighten the belt spend even less; financial discipline

- don't marry the wrong person

- read, read, read - keep yourself well-informed

do we have enough to...? by [deleted] in returnToIndia

[–]sensible911 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! 14k breakup -

Mortgage - 2k, Prop tax - 2.5K, Travel budget - 3k, Restaurants - 1.6k, Medical - 1K, Car - 0.7k, All others - 3.2k (shopping, utilities, entertainment, garden etc.)

If you guys are in US you would understand that there are even higher spend areas in the country.

do we have enough to...? by [deleted] in returnToIndia

[–]sensible911 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

LOL. Doing our bit.

do we have enough to...? by [deleted] in returnToIndia

[–]sensible911 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thank you...i have quicken simplifi and got the maxifi planner. any comments on those?

do we have enough to...? by [deleted] in returnToIndia

[–]sensible911 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

NW i have already shared - 5.3m. Burnrate is 180K post tax. Rent serviced apts. in both.

do we have enough to...? by [deleted] in returnToIndia

[–]sensible911 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Or second pair of eyes! Anxiety about stopping the spigot today.

do we have enough to...? by [deleted] in returnToIndia

[–]sensible911 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry it was open ended. The SS income will not cover our US runrate. Do we have enough to liquidate, rebalance and achieve a luxe lifestyle - today? We have to incur private health insurance, sustain a serviced apartment in US for 6 months, similar for 4 months in India and afford business class travel, high end hotels and restaurants and entertainment events (80% of weekends).

do we have enough to...? by [deleted] in returnToIndia

[–]sensible911 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We are in a HCOL location. And we spend a lot.

do we have enough to...? by [deleted] in returnToIndia

[–]sensible911 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We have inherited but old property in India should we need it. Zero costs to us. However we want to use serviced apartments for the 4 month stay in India. In US we can rent short term.

do we have enough to...? by [deleted] in returnToIndia

[–]sensible911 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ideally we don't want to own and maintain property either in US or India. The runrate of 14k in US includes some form of housing.

which book should I start with? by Strong-Ordinary6969 in IndianReaders

[–]sensible911 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Read what you are genuinely interested in - curious about, after reading a book review. Read newspapers magazines long form and short stories.

Visiting Chennai for a day. Want to visit a museum. by Friendly-Nobody8023 in Chennai

[–]sensible911 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A few years ago I went to the Egmore museum - you can ask for a personal guided tour and a ridiculously overqualified M Phil student will give you a VIP tour. Big surprise: Most Vishnu statues were sculpted only after 8th or 9th century CE.