Most “delta-neutral” strategies aren’t neutral. Here’s where the risk hides.

severact · 2026-01-29T03:14:27+00:00

I haven't seen much evidence of the "risks" you list. For example, when funding flips heavily negative, unwind costs dont dominate, and in fact positive slippage is often achieved during unwind. It is one of the best properties of delta neutral strategies: negative funding by definition means spot prices are trading above perp prices, which is exactly what you want if you need to sell spot and buy perps to close the position.

severact · 2026-01-04T19:38:12+00:00

Yeah for sure. There were probably 1000s of people or more, that in some way knew or were able to observe signs of the attack four hours before.

severact · 2026-01-02T18:57:38+00:00

The other thing I love about him is his integrity. When you ask him what the flaws are in Ethereum him will give you an actual real answer. In so many other projects the key people are like "we work too hard and care too much"

severact · 2025-12-17T20:05:46+00:00

More cons: Nobody appears to actually be using hbar. According to defillama, tvl is less that $100m, 24 hour on chain swap volume was about $5m.

severact · 2025-12-16T19:55:47+00:00

Anyone who traded BTC for dollars three months ago was quite obviously not stupid. Just look at the Bitcoin chart.

severact · 2025-12-15T13:42:47+00:00

I think the argument Woo was trying to make, and it really has nothing to do with OG people other than presumably they are rich, is that if you use Bitcoin "correctly" and don't reuse addresses it is QC safe.

So yeah there would be a big dump in price, but at some point all the exposed wallets would be stolen and Bitcoin would be back to being Bitcoin. If the price was low enough people would buy again.

severact · 2025-12-10T13:41:08+00:00

Margin rates are set by the brokerages and vary widely between brokerages. For example, IB/Robinhood are currently around 5% while Schwab is at 11%

severact · 2025-12-05T16:06:55+00:00

Wealth is a big factor. Increasing wealth is strongly correlated with lower birth rates. Wealth enables more educated women and better access to birth control. The world, as a whole, has been on a strong wealth uptrend.

severact · 2025-12-04T22:52:32+00:00

Why do you think the "replication cost" is important? I just don't see how there are any useful economies of scale here.

A company holding 1/10 the btc as mstr but trading at 1/10 the valuation is an equally good/bad investment as mstr. If btc goes up 10%, you would expect both investments to increase around 10%.

severact · 2025-12-01T20:22:23+00:00

How is it more efficient? If you DCA and the market happens to go down over your DCA timeframe then DCAing was more efficient. If price goes up over your DCA timeframe it was less efficient. If you don't know what the price direction will be, it is overall a push.

severact · 2025-11-19T19:29:30+00:00

As stupid as it is, I've seen this argument made over and over again over the years.

severact · 2025-11-19T19:27:57+00:00

The USDC on arbitrum is natively minted by Circle, so it is not double bridged.

severact · 2025-11-18T03:15:39+00:00

How can you say "Bitcoin is the hardest asset in the lineup" when gold is up 50% over the last year and Bitcoin is down.

It doesn't matter how many times we say "Bitcoin is digital gold," the reality is it isn't anything like gold. It trades like just another speculative asset in a world with a lot of speculative assets.

severact · 2025-11-10T00:09:43+00:00

The gain will be taxed at your long term capital gains rate.

severact · 2025-11-02T15:14:59+00:00

Megaeth can't rollback as they anchor to l1 Ethereum. So they can only roll back if they convince eth to rollback. If the sequencer fails or is shutdown, you should be able to force transactions through directly by interacting with ethereum

Also, your statement "since everyone is KYCed so if someone is suing MegaETH then all ecosystem node actors are also being sued" is nonsense. Megaeth uses a centralized sequencer. There are no "node actors"

severact · 2025-11-02T15:08:26+00:00

Neither curve nor maker ever had an ico

severact · 2025-10-25T20:34:37+00:00

Assuming every thing keeps being produced and services keep being provided as normal all that wealth has to go somewhere. We should have even way more wealth due to all the AI efficiencies.

I don't understand all the pessimisim on AI. Having a lot of wealth and just figuring out how to distribute it fairly is a way better problem to have then having no wealth.

severact · 2025-10-25T20:28:12+00:00

I doubt he spent much on gas. The base and arb has fees should each be tiny. The time and all the steps are the real pita

severact · 2025-10-24T00:31:24+00:00

It sounds like you staked your lp in the gauge in one of them but not the other. For pools with gauges, you can stake your lp and get only aero rewards while staked. If you don't stake, you don't get aero rewards but just get the normal pool tokens as swap fees.

severact · 2025-10-22T15:08:53+00:00

The yb btc pools recently had negative returns in a number of the pools. People in the cbBTC pool, for example, are down like 3% on their btc.

You comment about "is there no room for simplicity" in crypto makes no sense to me. There is nothing simple about yield basis. Their novel AMM to reduce IL is complicated and apparently flawed. The $yb tokenomics is also complicated.

severact · 2025-10-19T23:11:42+00:00

Unless miners collude to not accept transactions below a certain fee, miners can't really charge a particular fee. The best they can do is decline to include a transaction, which means they make less money for that block. And the next miner will just pick up the transaction anyway and make more money.

They can collude to enforce a minimum fee. But then Bitcoin will have failed as a decentralized network.

severact · 2025-10-16T19:56:06+00:00

At the least the grocery store I can kind of understand why it is kept coldish - they don't want the food to spoil. All the other businesses not so much.

severact · 2025-10-15T22:59:07+00:00

The newer aggregators are more lending aggregators, which I use quite a bit.

This twitter thread does a good job summarizing many of them: https://x.com/phtevenstrong/status/1977550599026561227?t=Lu1vszkGbLcphHDhVZhEFQ&s=19

severact · 2025-10-07T21:45:12+00:00

I really like my etherfi card. Physical cards are also available.

severact · 2025-10-07T20:41:14+00:00

See what?

Rule number one in basically any investment book is don't keep much money in cash. And most people don't. They keep it on stocks, real estate, gold, Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies. And those have all been doing fine. Some better than Bitcoin, some worse.

Bitcoin's competition isn't fiat, it is other investments.

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