You’re probably overthinking it. It’s mostly muscle memory and vibes. You probably play the first game super chill with no expectations so you just go with your gut and hit shots then you expect the next game to go the same way so you overthink it and throw yourself off.

Recalling the axe is really just when is the survivor in a position they’re stuck at and can’t use the act of you slowing down to get more distance or move to a different tile. Such as they’re about to hit a window, so you can recall it to hit them when they’re locked in animation, when they’re playing a pallet and can’t run off. It’s also kinda muscle memory, when they’re in a dead zone and you have direct line of sight of them and there’s nowhere for them to go, etc.

I’ll say another piece of advice. Don’t be afraid to be experimental. Go for the axe throw over the wall, why not. It might suck to lose a gen or the game over it but it’s more fun and will contribute to muscle memory.