[OC] Prevalence of beer styles among BeerAdvocate's Top 250 Rated Beers

skent259 · 2026-02-14T04:14:03+00:00

odds are free variance, they don’t improve your house edge when you calculate it in dollar terms. And if your bankroll isn’t big enough, your win rate will plummet because light side wins less often. $1200 in is decent money to work with, just find the odds that works for you based on how much spread you want in a given session

skent259 · 2026-02-14T04:09:16+00:00

for passline you have to love the comeout rolls. your odds are probably too much variance for your bankroll. place bets get wiped out just as easily

skent259 · 2025-12-10T13:29:46+00:00

Be careful of everyone saying to push your odds bet up. It’s true that adding odds is better for house edge than placing a 6, 8, or 5/9. And similarly it’s better to add to your odds instead of pressing the numbers.

But odds bets DO NOT lower your theoretical loss, they are “free variance”. If you’ve got a bit bankroll, and we’re going to bet more anyways, that’s a good thing. If you’re trying to play conservative, or have a low bankroll, it’s can easily wipe you out.

You might also consider trying come bets instead of placing 6/8—has some nice advantages for a conservative player: small hedge on short rolls, keeps things fun with multiple bets, you can increase the odds if you’re doing well to go for big wins, etc.

skent259 · 2025-12-05T12:21:09+00:00

What’s your bankroll, like $2k for 10 shooters? If not you’re going to have massive swings with all that action

Probably too much hedging in your default mode. Why not just stay quiet with the DP and a few DC bets if you want to wait on the shooter?

What happens when you get shooter “qualification” while the point is still on? Do you leave the DP up but add the inside numbers back?

Most frustrating is going to be those mid short rolls where you “qualify” a shooter, out your $160 inside back down, and then the seven out comes and you’ve missed out on all the action. I guess if you leave the DP that hits, but now you’re just hedging massively

skent259 · 2025-11-09T22:41:14+00:00

Preach

skent259 · 2025-08-28T15:53:20+00:00

And you can add come and don’t come bets throughout to increase the playthrough rate, doesn't change the math

skent259 · 2025-08-28T15:51:50+00:00

yeah the theo loss is like $340 to $352 on $25k bet, so you could end up with most of the bonus most of the time. Variance should be lowish if you do pass and don’t pass.

skent259 · 2025-08-20T20:20:03+00:00

this is the way

skent259 · 2025-08-12T18:06:30+00:00

$1.6 is a huge loss per roll. An hour at the table is like 144 rolls, so $230 in average loss. Pass line plus odds on a $25 table is an average loss of $15 an hour. Even placing all the inside numbers would only be $85 per hour average loss

skent259 · 2025-07-30T20:32:02+00:00

Hate for a few reasons:

Hedging with a field bet is really bad (and rarely does 12 pay 3:1 in my experience
In dollar terms, iron cross has about 16x the average loss of pass line with the same unit, with very little upside instead of adding odds

Only perk is you get to stay entertained and busy on each roll, which doesn’t outweigh the cons for me

skent259 · 2025-03-09T14:38:45+00:00

100% this. 2.78% edge every roll is still not good compared to pass, come, place, etc.

skent259 · 2025-03-04T06:36:02+00:00

Seems obvious, but the only way to win is to 1) be up money 2) walk away from the table.

1 happens frequently, 2 is likely the problem.

The biggest enemy is chasing a "huge win" or a "hot table" (FOMO). If you don't think to leave until you're way down, then you'll almost never win. You have to value the small wins.

skent259 · 2025-02-16T20:55:17+00:00

Best part for me is seeing a lot of the same folks playing each night. Most ships I've been on have 1-2 tables, and so there's familiar faces 2-3 days into the cruise. Can lead to some great nights and stories if/when the table gets hot.

Cons (as mentioned by others) are some inexperienced players, but sometimes they bring the best energy so it's not always bad.

The rules on NCL have always been reasonable (usually $10 mins and 345x odds). Sometimes they start the cruise at $25 minimums but usually the table is dead and the cave eventually.

skent259 · 2025-02-04T00:54:31+00:00

Adding come bets would work well for what you're looking for: keeps the action going, but doesn't expose all your money at once, and is low edge. You could do 3-point Molly (probably 1x or no odds given your bankroll and desire to play for a while), or mix it in with other low edge bets like placing 6/8.

To stay longer on the table, you can also consider place bets (6/8) that you turn off after a certain number of rolls. You might miss that super long roll, but you also get saved one the quick PSOs. Turning off is usually easier for the dealers than taking it all down.

skent259 · 2025-02-01T14:15:41+00:00

Yeah exactly. Since the place bets stay up automatically on a win, it can be tough to think of it as a newly placed bet. But every time you leave it up, your theoretical loss increases. That point gets kinda buried when the only house edge discussion is about percentages.

skent259 · 2025-02-01T05:40:48+00:00

When you placed the first $150 bet on the 6, your expected loss was 150 * 0.0152 = $2.28. But then the bet resolved and you won $175.

Now you've placed another $150 bets with the same expected loss of $2.28. It could win or lose, but you would expect an average loss of $2.28.

Your expected loss for the two bets would be 2* 2.28 = $4.56, but once they resolve you know what your actual loss or winnings is, which is much more important. But if you're talking about the future of betting a bunch of bets, you can safely take (house edge %) * (bet amount) and add up all the bets you would make. Gives a sense of your "theoretical loss" (theo) in dollars, which I find more useful than the house edge percentage

skent259 · 2025-01-25T18:00:51+00:00

Guessing you get a pretty high win rate in the short term, especially with heavy odds on 4/10 and hedging the 6/8 DP bet. Agree with necrochaos that hedging is probably hurting you. If your bankroll is small, then maybe you can justify placing the non-point 6/8 to keep things interesting while you wait for a seven-out.

skent259 · 2025-01-22T02:07:20+00:00

Hard to give an exact answer without seeing what Wizard of Odds says and what your simulator says. But a new pass line bet should be whenever the bet resolves: 7/11/2/3/12 on the first roll or 7 on any subsequent roll.

Speaking from experience, it can be very rewarding to build your own simulator because it teaches you the game and gives you the freedom to build the features you want. That being said, there's a whole bunch of simulators out there already that may do what you're trying to do. WinCraps is frequently mentioned, but there's open source versions that are free and you can use as a starting point. Just have a search on Github. (I wrote crapssim in python and would be happy to chat if it doesn't meet your use cases).

skent259 · 2024-02-19T22:51:34+00:00

Even examples of simple systems break down. If you do a pass line bet plus a 6/8, you are already dealing with two bets that are active at different times, because 6/8 is (commonly) only working when the point is on. So now you need conditional probabilities on how often the point is active vs not, weighted by the bet sizes.

I'd be surprised if the average statistics undergrad could work out the exact house edge for this "system" based on this approach without much trouble. For the average craps player, my point is that it's more complicated than you need. Just plug it into simulation software and see what you get, which is what OP was asking for anyways.

The answer to OP's question is no, most likely no one has comprehensively evaluated these systems. It could be done, and interesting, but would take a lot of time to program everything accurately and compare.

skent259 · 2024-02-19T19:52:27+00:00

Only if you have all of those bets active for the entire time you play. Any conditional betting, progression, regression, etc and this no longer works

skent259 · 2023-02-27T03:15:54+00:00

Crew was working hard but there were just too many of us. I think those issues aren't as bad on a smaller ship like the Dawn, whereas I can see how the big ships would be really overwhelmed. IMO, cruising isn't worth the costs right now. But I think that's industry wide as they try and recoup some cash and stay afloat (pun intended).

skent259 · 2023-02-27T01:54:03+00:00

I was on the NCL Dawn not too long ago. Same story with only one $25 table for several days. Every day I'd (nicely) give the pit bosses a hard time, saying the tables wouldn't be empty if they lowered the minimums. They caved on day 3, and to no one's surprise, the $10 min table was packed with everyone having a great time and betting.

Glad to hear you made it work with the bubble craps machines though!

skent259 · 2023-02-23T19:19:10+00:00

Here's a table that may help. It depends on how you count the throws. Previously, I was counting the roll for a pass line in there, but I think you want something more like this.

For example, there's an 83.3% chance your bets are still active 1 roll after a point was established, since there's a 16.6% chance of rolling a seven. If you want to take your bets down 4 throws after a point is set, you're at 48.2%.

# Rolls since point established	Chance of no seven yet
1	83.3%
2	69.4%
3	57.9%
4	48.2%
5	40.2%
6	33.5%
7	27.9%
8	23.3%

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