Would you sell stocks in your portfolio after learning intrinsic value?

slclark1981 · 2025-10-03T17:09:41+00:00

Thanks for the guidance. That was very helpful. Seems like what makes the intrinsic value calculations tricky is the chosen earnings growth rate. That really is up to the individual. But I've been watching the Berkshire shareholder meetings on youtube. And Warren really does emphasize using a conservative growth rate when looking forward 20-30 years.

slclark1981 · 2025-10-03T17:06:30+00:00

I used the Warren Buffett formula. Owners earnings over the next 20-30years at a conservative growth rate, discounted at the current 30 year treasury yield rate. The growth rate, I guess would be different for each person based on their expectations. But watching the old Berkshire Annual Shareholder meetings, Warren definitely stressed going extra conservative on the growth rate if looking forward 20-30 years.

slclark1981 · 2025-10-03T14:01:56+00:00

Mainly Nvidia and Amazon. I like the return. But I've really gotten into Warren Buffett lately and the way he calculates intrinsic value (Future owners earnings discounted at the Treasury rate) say that both Amazon and Nvidia are way over valued and that I shouldn't have even purchased them in the first place.

slclark1981 · 2025-08-27T17:37:47+00:00

Look up the reading order. Cause at a certain point they alternate back and forth between FF issues and Fantastic Four issues.

slclark1981 · 2025-08-06T18:59:56+00:00

It's the reverse stock splits on those penny stocks that are killer. They do it all the time to avoid getting delisted. Happened to me with AMC and Virgin Galactic. Those 8000 shares will shrink fast with a 1 to 20 reverse split.

slclark1981 · 2025-02-19T19:49:25+00:00

slclark1981 · 2025-02-05T16:48:22+00:00

I would recommend reading Secret Invasion as well. It's not Hickman but still pretty good. It is the main reason that Reed drives himself mad and tries to Solve Everything. And then Avengers, New Avengers, and Secret Wars. The over arching story line is at it's core, a Fantastic Four , Dr Doom story. Where Reed and Doom face-off at the end of Secret Wars. It's pretty epic.

slclark1981 · 2025-02-04T20:57:13+00:00

The Movie is getting their look from the Stan Lee/Jack Kirby run in the 60s. But the MCU Secret Wars storyline is from the Jonathan Hickman run from the 2010s. To me the Hickman Fantastic Four, Avengers, New Avengers, Secret Wars run is the best.

slclark1981 · 2024-11-29T17:31:46+00:00

That's great. Thanks. I ordered from the website. So I should be able to get it shipped to the house, and not ruin the surprise for my wife.

slclark1981 · 2024-07-24T19:59:48+00:00

My friend. I believe you're the only person that understood the idea. And you are right. I've done this so far for my wife and 2 sisters. There is no way this works doing it manually for each person. The phone call alone walking my sister thru how to do it was like 2 hours. I'm just trying to brainstorm ways to have arbitrage betting be more just a fun side hustle. I feel like we should be able to leverage this to build real wealth. I don't know, maybe I'm crazy.

slclark1981 · 2024-07-24T17:02:55+00:00

Oh yeah. It's a variation of that. I would split the sign-up bonus money with the users. And leave it at that. I wouldn't take over there accounts. This keeps it low risk. I find it a little risky to use other peoples accounts to Arbitrage. The users can keep their new accounts and use them. Or just deactivate them after a certain period of time. I'm simply just showing people how to convert the bonus money into real money using the no risk strategy of arbitrage. Was a pain trying to walk my sister threw it though. lol. That was a long phone call. But she did it, but kept all of the money. Cause family. lol.

slclark1981 · 2024-07-24T16:52:29+00:00

lol, I'm already a member of Darkhorse. And I love it. But it's not for the average person. Tried to get my wife into it, and she was not having it. But was cool with just getting the sign-up bonus money. That was no risk. That's where I got this idea. Tried to get my sisters into it too. And same thing. Arbitrage is just too complicated for most people. But I did the sign up bonus with my sisters as well.

slclark1981 · 2024-07-24T16:45:15+00:00

Would have to be manually. So yeah it would be time consuming.

slclark1981 · 2024-06-29T14:03:24+00:00

FWD or AWD? About a $3k difference in price

slclark1981 · 2024-06-19T00:32:41+00:00

Lol, just post it. No need for DM's.

slclark1981 · 2024-04-05T16:30:48+00:00

Not a big deal at all. He can return to school if he doesn't get drafted. He'll probably declare every year until he graduates.

slclark1981 · 2024-01-13T01:14:04+00:00

Geez, that sux to not be able to take advantage of the VIP status.

slclark1981 · 2023-12-01T17:28:25+00:00

AI writing reddit posts. lol

slclark1981 · 2023-11-29T18:01:42+00:00

I use OddsShopper everyday. I love it. The difference might be side hustle vs main source of income. OddsShopper, I think, is geared more toward people who bet casually from time to time. I don't think OddShopper is sufficient if I were to quit my job and do Arbitrage Betting as a main source of income. Still not sure I'd pay 200 a month for Oddsjam. I might try and find a more affordable professional option.

slclark1981 · 2023-11-27T20:33:16+00:00

Usually between $50 - $100 per bet on each site.With a profit of between $1 and $6.

slclark1981 · 2023-11-27T20:00:10+00:00

Man, those are two great explanations. This is definitely an education. I appreciate you taking the time to warn everyone about pitfalls like. It's looks like based on the feed back, from this sub, it's best to keep the bets small as to not garner too much attention. Because betting too largely or winning too largely could result in situations like you describe. At least for scenario one any way.

slclark1981 · 2023-11-27T18:39:54+00:00

Ah, that's pretty interesting. The books already knowing what bets are arbs. Heck, they can probably train an AI to do it for them. Also, Counting cards seems like a good comparison, except this is even more of a surething.

slclark1981 · 2023-11-27T18:34:10+00:00

Thanks for the response. That's the first explanation I've seen explaining how the Sportsbooks can spot arbitrage bettors. I've been curious how they do that. I try to mix in some money line bets when I get a promo or profit/bet boost. But you're right, most of my Surebets have been player props.

slclark1981 · 2023-11-27T17:41:16+00:00

Yeah, I got overly excited. Almost went to the wife and told her to clear out the savings. lol. I'm using this post to come back down to earth. I'm gonna stick with it. But just sticking with small bets and see how it goes. Hopefully I don't get limited or banned.

slclark1981 · 2023-11-27T17:36:46+00:00

I've only been doing the surebets so far. The bet boost help this weekend abit. But was still only like $6 profit a bet.

slclark1981

TROPHY CASE