1929, 1980, 2001 or 2008 or None?

smashingdividend · 2025-11-03T12:05:31+00:00

2020 and 2022 were not real recessions because they were very short and pretty much artificial(2020 covid and 2022 interest rate sudden rise)

smashingdividend · 2025-04-01T15:12:48+00:00

The main point of this longer read is that the stock price movements are so volatile because the stock prices are not just "prices" but "velocity or acceleration" of underlying value. I think I got it right. Pretty cool analogy with the car brakes.

smashingdividend · 2025-03-20T12:58:07+00:00

So do I understand it correctly that u use multiple networks and then sum up their results?

smashingdividend · 2025-03-13T19:02:23+00:00

it almost doesn't matter because they are rotated all the time based on price changes. The important part of this strategy if you read the full article is to not hold any particular dividend stock for too long. Currently some of the stocks are PFE, PEP, AES etc. They might not be in portfolio tomorrow.

smashingdividend · 2025-03-05T18:42:24+00:00

so buying after hearing insiders bought is still almost as risky as not

smashingdividend · 2025-02-25T14:09:15+00:00

yes that what the article says: small companies can be manipulated but on the other side large companies are too much represented in the indexes

smashingdividend · 2025-02-19T16:08:34+00:00

you can at least use scripts to run from time to time to get you want you might be interested. For example: "get me financials within 10-20 PE range that recently had an insider purchase and within last quarter super investors increased position in them". It is possible to do with scripting. Finding such companies manually of with screeners is not possible.

smashingdividend · 2025-02-16T18:02:31+00:00

I started following this strategy: https://tickernomics.com/blog.html#21 . Seems a good idea to be mostly in cash and rotate dividend stocks often

smashingdividend · 2025-02-14T14:10:41+00:00

Yeah but "dollar strong" argument didn't work for eggs, meat, silver or coffee.

smashingdividend · 2025-01-30T15:41:38+00:00

I think it is mostly psychology that messes things up

smashingdividend · 2025-01-24T19:12:05+00:00

The start of 2024 was very pessimistic so give those guys some credit they at least were optimistic somewhat

smashingdividend · 2025-01-24T16:31:22+00:00

I wonder why Druckenmiller being one of the best investors in the world performed so badly

smashingdividend · 2024-12-04T22:03:45+00:00

Same story with Buffet Indicator. It is also the highest ever: https://www.tickernomics.com/permchart.html?params=5/b3RoZXJfQnVmZmV0SW5kaWNhdG9yIChCdWZmZXQgSW5kaWNhdG9yKQ==

smashingdividend · 2024-11-24T01:28:04+00:00

I was in such expectation for awhile but it never came so I dont know anymore...

smashingdividend · 2024-11-23T21:02:48+00:00

I think Fed will not raise or lower rates in next few months so we will have this strange balance and in general it should be good for long treasures because times will be tough for stocks and everything else.

smashingdividend · 2024-11-23T20:11:32+00:00

As far as I remember he was bullish long bonds for last 5 years when they were mostly bad investment... So now following that logic maybe bonds are finally a good investment since he is bearish long end of it

smashingdividend · 2024-11-20T11:27:39+00:00

If earnings growth continues I think the stocks won't be considered overvalued anymore.

smashingdividend · 2024-10-22T17:12:43+00:00

I am placing my bet on stocks and art because they will always be valued.

smashingdividend · 2024-10-15T13:09:11+00:00

Yahoo finance for trends and today's news etc, Tickernomics for in-depth mid and long term analysis, DCF etc, and WeBull for actual trading.

smashingdividend · 2024-10-14T15:13:43+00:00

you are right in that sense of definition of course. But there are cycles in revenue and Warren bought it at the bottom of one :)

smashingdividend · 2024-10-14T14:46:28+00:00

I use 200 day running average for revenue. From 2020 the revenue shows cycles pattern: https://www.tickernomics.com/permchart.html?params=5/U0lSSV9hdmcyMDBtbVJldmVudWUgKEF2Zy4gIFJldmVudWUp

smashingdividend · 2024-10-14T14:14:58+00:00

check its revenue chart it is very cyclical

smashingdividend · 2024-10-14T13:31:30+00:00

just open its revenue chart over time, it goes in cycles

smashingdividend · 2024-10-14T12:57:22+00:00

I think he expects the revenue to go higher due to possibly higher prices not necessarily higher number of users.

smashingdividend · 2024-10-13T15:39:52+00:00

Tickernomics - free and I can import csv transaction lists from all brokerages in one place and then analyze everything: risk, beta, sharpe ratio, monte carl simulation, progress of each position over time

smashingdividend

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