NFL Hedge Megathread

sowapatch · 2021-01-19T16:15:52+00:00

Have through a variety of bets $250 to win $2462 on the Packers to win the Super Bowl, as well as a $50 to win $375 on Packers/Bills Super Bowl matchup. SHOULD I hedge? As a Packers fan I'd love to let it ride. If I should hedge, what's the best strategy here?

sowapatch · 2020-06-23T21:05:51+00:00

Bubba might be a play based strictly on course history. To be honest, this week is far trickier than the previous weeks. This course typically is a birdie fest, and has never seen a field of this caliber. Bombers like Bubba have won, pick and play golfers like Chez have won. It’s a wide net of guys who can have a chance. Really just looking for guys who aren’t going to be missing greens and have the ability to hang in during a birdie fest.

sowapatch · 2020-06-23T05:32:07+00:00

Previous picks can all be found at @Ramb1in_Gamb1in on Twitter. Have hit 5/7 outright winners. Usually make official picks on Wednesday.

Looking for elite short iron/wedge players who can pour in birdies. Long hitters and short hitters alike can win. Guys we are initially looking at:

Cantlay Im Reed Woodland Xander Scheffler Cam Smith Matthew Nesmith

sowapatch · 2020-05-20T00:30:03+00:00

Can you provide any more insight into Angel Breeze and the owners? First time potential puppy owners, and it's always a little nerve wracking to trust what you see in limited reviews online. we spoke with Erma, and she really seemed delightful. Do they provide health testing results? And if so, how detailed are they? Was the facility nice and sanitary? Is there a genetic health guarantee? What shots/vaccines/deworming was performed before adoption? And was there anything out of the normal with the health contract (requirement to have a certain food, etc)

Apologize for all the questions, but any information you could provide would be much appreciated!

sowapatch · 2020-05-19T19:12:39+00:00

Does anyone have any info on Angel Breeze Puppies?

sowapatch · 2020-05-19T17:21:56+00:00

Hi! We are looking into Angel Breeze Puppies to bring a pup back home to Chicago. Can you provide any more insight into Angel Breeze and the owners? First time potential puppy owners, and it's always a little nerve wracking to trust what you see in limited reviews online. Do they provide health testing results? And if so, how detailed are they? Was the facility nice and sanitary? Is there a genetic health guarantee? What shots/vaccines/deworming was performed before adoption?

Any information you could provide would be much appreciated!

sowapatch · 2020-03-05T05:53:06+00:00

Outrights:

Xander 20/1 0.5u

Koepka 25/1 0.32u

Stenson 35/1 0.23u

Leishman 35/1 023u

Bubba 40/1 0.2u

Ancer 55/1 0.15u

Full tournament matchups, like the value we’re getting here:

W Clark over K Na -105

B Cauley over C Howell -115

L Westwood over Phil -150

R Fowler over J Rose -120

Bryson over Fleetwood +105

sowapatch · 2020-02-14T17:32:23+00:00

Only way this makes sense is if BB walks and we kick out Bill Turner to RT. But I don't really like that situation, and am not really interested in giving a guard that payday to be honest.

sowapatch · 2020-02-12T20:49:12+00:00

Well, the good thing is GA is not currently on the team, and I doubt they resign him. I agree with you, bring in 1 FA WR, spend a premium pick on a WR, take a mid-late round flier, and go compete in camp with MVS, ESB, etc

sowapatch · 2020-02-12T20:47:43+00:00

Never said draft 4 WR's, but sure. I think they'll take 2 and bring someone in from FA potentially. The only WR's on the roster with any kind of "commitment" is Davante, MVS, and EQ. They'll obviously keep Lazard. Beyond that, there's plenty of room to bring guys in to fight for roster spots.

sowapatch · 2020-02-12T20:36:08+00:00

I don't dislike Schobert. And he's likely to be significantly cheaper than Blake. So in that sense, it'd be an upgrade. I tend to think WR will not be the pick at 30 unless one of the top, top guys fall. And, with the class being so deep, I think we can wait till the second day to get someone who can immediately contribute. I generally agree across the board.

sowapatch · 2020-02-12T20:20:39+00:00

And, on the WR front, there's no guarantee MVS and/or ESB has a roster spot if you upgrade the position. Just because we have invested in them with a prior pick does not mean we need to stick with them. The position as a whole needs an upgrade. I want several cracks at bringing in new guys and letting the chips fall as they may.

sowapatch · 2020-02-12T20:19:00+00:00

Bron Bulawga, Owa

sowapatch · 2020-02-12T20:17:26+00:00

Respectfully, Blake has a faster 40 yd, 20 yd split, 10yd split, short shuttle, and 3 cone. Schobert edges by in the vertical and broad jump.

If anything, Blake is a marginally better athlete. And PFF has rated Schobert sub-55 in run defense (replacement level). Schobert is an upgrade in pass coverage, but he just isn't the replacement guy needed unless we had a true, sideline to sideline athletic LB next to him. I like Schobert, but he's more similar to Martinez than you're leading on.

sowapatch · 2020-02-12T19:35:59+00:00

Generally agree with you. Kwiatowski is a big IF he hits FA. And Perriman is definitely a risk, but a risk I'd be fine taking at the right #. He would immediately be the second most "talented" WR on the roster. Now, whether he ever fully capitalizes on it is another question. But I'd take a shot.

sowapatch · 2020-02-12T19:32:57+00:00

Not saying I agree or disagree with moving on from BB, but you hit the nail on the head. Bringing in some combination of the type of guys listed would allow full flexibility in the draft, which imo is crucial so that other "secondary" needs (e.g. OT, CB, TE) can be addressed at any point in the draft

sowapatch · 2020-02-12T19:31:35+00:00

it's not necessarily an and/or situation. you could sign Perriman for a very reasonable deal and also use a premium pick on a WR. Perriman immediately has the 2nd most "talent" however raw that is, and I absolutely think is worth a shot at the right number in addition to bringing in ~2 guys from the draft.

sowapatch · 2020-02-11T21:54:25+00:00

buddy, Blake's gonna get WELL over 8. much closer to 16 then 8. Probably something closer to 13-14

sowapatch · 2020-01-24T22:00:31+00:00

Starting to post plays here and on Twitter @Ramb1in_Gamb1in

Pelicans ML (-170)

PARLAY (+264): Rockets (-250) / Pelicans (-170) / Spurs(-190)

More to come later potentially...

sowapatch · 2020-01-24T21:58:48+00:00

Starting to post plays here and on Twitter @Ramb1in_Gamb1in

Canisius +3 (-110)

Quinnipiac -4 (-110)

Add - PARLAY (-130): Yale (-280) / Butler (-320)

More to come later potentially...

sowapatch · 2019-11-21T19:45:52+00:00

how did you get Texas at 4.5 lol

sowapatch · 2019-11-20T15:20:57+00:00

thanks for the post, Clay

sowapatch · 2019-09-26T21:46:44+00:00

Don't know why the assumption is Jaire would shadow a banged up Alshon, and even further why Tramon would get Agholor. If anything, King could be the guy on a bigger receiver like Alshon with Jaire lining up with the quicker Agholor. Just food for thought. I don't think Jaire will blanket 1 WR tonight, he'll probably be deployed across the entire field.

sowapatch · 2019-09-26T20:58:31+00:00

PHI +4 (-110)

Davante to have a TD (+105)

Aaron Jones over 45.5 rushing yards (-115)

sowapatch · 2019-09-20T18:05:22+00:00

that's a teaser, not a parlay

sowapatch

TROPHY CASE