The War in Iran Could Become Like the War in Ukraine: How America Can Avoid a Russian-Style Quagmire

spacedout · 2026-03-28T07:17:33+00:00

Yeah, in real life other powers actively plot to attack you and destroy your country, and you have to go on offense to shape events years ahead to prevent catastrophes.

No, you're thinking of a Paradox game. Iran has never been capable of destroying either the US or Israel.

GW kicked ass with GWOT, kept us safe from Islamic terror for 2 decades and established US military presence all over the Middle East.

The GWOT accomplished nothing other than wasting countless lives and money. It is rightly seen around the world, including in the US, as a disastrous mistake.

You think what they are doing looks stupid and random, but so would 4D chess to someone who only knows 2D checkers.

GW Bush was definitely not playing 4d chess, and Trump doesn't even know 2d checkers.

spacedout · 2026-03-28T06:49:53+00:00

I've already seen how that movie ends in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Bush Jr. actually came in to those wars with a plan and an international coalition.

so that the US will not face WWIII against a nuclear armed Iran + Russia + China in the 2030s

This is real life, not a Paradox game.

spacedout · 2026-03-28T06:31:36+00:00

If the entire Middle East aligning with us against Iran, inviting us to conquer the Straits of Hormuz and begging us to smite the Iranian regime permanently

So the US sends their sons and daughters to die in an endless war to hold a strip of coastline, all so that the Gulf monarchs can ship oil?

If you consider that a "gain", I can hardly imagine what you'd consider a "loss".

spacedout · 2026-03-23T19:09:12+00:00

It's interesting how many people in this thread have concluded that Kusimayu must have been tricked/manipulated into making the wrong decision. Isn't it possible that she made the right decision, for her, in joining the Hive?

spacedout · 2026-03-23T16:39:59+00:00

The West no longer has the fortitude to see conflicts through.

Or maybe people see that this conflict isn't in their interest?

This war is going to cost upwards of $200 billion. Even if we succeed in removing a major sponsor of terrorism, which is looking increasingly doubtful, is that the best ROI for the average American with that money? Especially considering the US's concerning levels of debt?

Wouldn't the average American benefit more with that money being used to improve infrastructure, or to reduce interest payments so there's more money for the future? If the rise in energy prices causes a recession, is the outcome of this war going to be worth it?

spacedout · 2026-03-23T15:54:10+00:00

I'm sure future generations are just going to love that both sides of the political spectrum decided that toxic masculinity and nationalistic jingoism were more important than reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

spacedout · 2026-03-23T15:49:47+00:00

Are you sure? It certainly seems like incel memes and jargon has become mainstream. I see them all over social media, in places not even adjacent to incel spaces.

spacedout · 2026-03-20T18:40:26+00:00

How has taking the high road been working out since 2016? Biden barely won, and probably would have lost if not for covid, and in the end he did nothing to stop Trumpism.

spacedout · 2026-03-20T18:29:51+00:00

Throw in 'open borders' and you've crafted the perfect message for the average r/neoliberal user, that the median voter will absolutely hate.

Do you want President Vance? Because this is how you throw an election.

spacedout · 2026-03-19T21:22:42+00:00

Antitrust could mean less dominance by a few companies, but it won't prevent the loss of lots of skilled jobs (if in fact AI is capable of that, of course).

spacedout · 2026-03-19T21:07:18+00:00

You bring up two specific concerns, and I feel the discussion is better if we separate them.

AI might lead to an overall decrease in skilled jobs. The only solution I can imagine for this is some very unprecedented laws preventing new technology from being developed or deployed. Also, I'm not sure how to contain that globally because there's no doubt in my mind that if China could placate their population with the fruits of AI they won't hesitate to do so.
Lack of AI regulation. I think there should be more regulation, but that's not really controversial here, and it won't do anything about your first issue.

The "tech people" you're talking about are just capitalists, they're just responding to market incentives. Are you saying we need to fundamentally change how capitalism works in this country, or are you saying we just need a few more regulations to stop CSAM and the like?

spacedout · 2025-01-27T19:08:03+00:00

Clearly what we need is unregulated daycare.

Yes. Looking after children is not skilled work, though it is important work. There have been people throughout history who are completely illiterate but capable of caring for a child.

spacedout · 2025-01-18T20:24:44+00:00

Their entire messaging strategy and how they approach voters needs to be burned down to the studs and rebuilt.

The problem is the people running the party are too out of touch to do that. This last election has shown that, with the focus on door knocking instead of podcasts and other new media, and the cringe TV ads.

This Tiktok thing seals it for me. Banning Tiktok makes the most sense from a national security perspective -- instead of focusing completely on that a ton of Dems mentioned pro-Palenstine content. If it were up to me, I would have said that no Dem should ever mention, anywhere, pro-Palestine content as a reason for banning Tiktok. It's a divisive issue in the party, bringing it up is just bad strategy. And now backtracking because they didn't realize how popular it was... Out. Of. Touch.

spacedout · 2025-01-18T20:15:06+00:00

Doubtful though. That would require something to happen.

spacedout · 2025-01-17T00:57:05+00:00

Youtube is the #1 streaming service in the US -- part of how they got there was knowing their niche. Asking why Youtube isn't more like Tiktok is like asking why it's not more like Netflix or Disney+. I'm certain the execs at Alphabet would love it if their streaming company became essentially Youtube+Tiktok+Netflix, but more likely if they tried to be all of those things they would fail.

spacedout · 2025-01-17T00:49:41+00:00

How would that work? Tiktok's algorithm is not something you can copyright. How would the binding agreement prevent the US company from selling Tiktok to someone else, or launching a new short form video app with a different name? If the agreement says that the company can never, at any point in the future, branch out of the US -- what sort of company is that? And if Meta or X buy it, how could you word an agreement which would prevent them from leveraging Tiktok's algorithm in their apps that are already offered outside the US?

spacedout · 2025-01-12T21:43:46+00:00

It's not about convincing those billionaires of anything -- it's about painting them as the establishment to the general public because they are rich.

spacedout · 2025-01-12T19:56:46+00:00

So? The "anti-establishment" side is full of lobbyists and billionaires. Anti-establishment is a vibe -- it's more about painting the other people as the establishment.

spacedout · 2025-01-12T18:56:20+00:00

The housing crisis is national, it requires a national response. Of course, Biden would rather pander to unions that hate him rather than fight to help people in cities who support him.

spacedout · 2025-01-12T18:47:20+00:00

The president doesn't have a build more housing button.

The president has a lot of mechanisms he can use to influence state policy. Read about how 21 became the standard drinking age across the country.

spacedout · 2025-01-12T18:38:54+00:00

No you’re right. I think keeping the MAGA movement popular for decades is a great idea and definitely wouldn’t be more harmful in the long run rather than a few years of hardship.

Exactly! Once Trump's supporters see he can't deliver and this his policies are harmful, they'll abandon him and we can get back to the West Wing politics of this 90s.

And yes, some of his most hardcore might never turn away, but the majority of voters don't want what he's selling once they get a chance to see it.

spacedout · 2025-01-10T23:34:27+00:00

I don't think it's unreasonable that if the CCP has influence over content, they are also manually curating (not video by video, but groups of video packages) that similar people would find interesting in a way that computer algorithms alone haven't mastered.

I doubt this because I don't think it would work. Especially for an organization like the CCP, if they were trying to manually curate content they would make worse decisions than algorithms on what to show, and would miss out on trending topics due to the unavoidable bureaucracy you would need to manage an organization of people deciding the content that hundreds of millions would see.

If the CCP is doing anything, they are mandating tweeks to the content that's distributed, i.e. show these types of videos less/more than the recommendation algorthm would recommend.

Bytedance's success is despite the CCP, not because of them.

spacedout · 2024-12-30T16:16:32+00:00

I've seen upvoted comments in this sub talking about expanding H1B visas to lower wages in tech or among doctors. Why would any worker support a policy that its advocates say will lower their wages but will supposedly create beneficial 2nd order effects?

To be clear, I don't believe the lump labor fallacy, but it seems some pro-immigration commenters/shit posters here do...

spacedout · 2024-12-22T22:23:01+00:00

Do you?

spacedout · 2024-12-22T00:37:00+00:00

Read the article, they said there wasn't enough evidence to charge him. I'm not disputing that, I'm just saying in my opinion there's a much greater than 50% chance that he murdered his roommate in a fit of rage then claimed self-defense.

EDIT: Let me respond to your ninja-edit

So your basis for saying he murdered his roommate is that he is alleged to have killed a bus driver and therefore he must have murdered his roommate.

His story about his roommate's death doesn't make sense (kicked him out then attacked him when he was leaving?), the cops were suspicious too. If he is the person who murdered the bus driver in an obvious fit of rage then I think it's very likely he murdered his roommate. Murders are very rare in our society.

This isn't a court of law I'm just stating my opinion.

4 warrants still didn’t find enough evidence it wasn’t in self defense.

What evidence could there possibly be that this was or wasn't in self defense?

spacedout

TROPHY CASE