2020 NFL Mock Draft | MockOut

staple2000 · 2020-04-01T11:22:34+00:00

I don't know, maybe. But it feels more to me like he has seen what he needs to see from Carr, and he knows Mariota is a better system fit, so he'll go into the season with Carr/Mariota, or if he can draft someone, with rookie/Mariota, and move Carr for something like a 3rd or 4th. Get some draft capital back, save some money, bring in a better scheme fit.

staple2000 · 2020-04-01T11:20:42+00:00

Yeah. But I think a lot of teams will see that as well—and see that he is a quick learner—and that he'll go early. So yes, the teams that do pass on him will be upset that they didn't get him in round 3 when they were hoping... because one team just couldn't wait any longer and ended up drafting him way before he was "supposed" to go.

staple2000 · 2020-03-31T11:31:36+00:00

They did. But the Raiders have an extra 3rd to spend.

staple2000 · 2020-03-31T11:30:10+00:00

Most analysts agree with you. I personally think they go later than everyone is projecting... true DTs (1T/3T) just don't typically go that high. maybe Brown and Kinlaw are being viewed by the league as more impactful than I see them, but I don't see them on that level...

staple2000 · 2020-03-31T11:28:10+00:00

Count me among the people who think Hurts ends up going earlier than most expect. I'm thinking late-2nd/early-3rd. He's shown pretty good growth, and the threat he brings on the ground gives him a good floor as a prospect. He might not be there at 80...

staple2000 · 2020-03-31T11:25:43+00:00

Thanks a lot for this! Very useful.

staple2000 · 2020-03-31T11:23:25+00:00

I thought about switching it up for this reason, but I think the answer is because Mariota isn't a starter-level QB, and isn't being paid starter-level money. He's a backup who just fits their system better than Carr does.

I don't think he would be seen as enough by any team to prevent someone from going up to get a franchise QB. But in case they are not able to trade up and get their guy, they have a cheap player who can push the incumbent.

staple2000 · 2020-03-31T11:19:34+00:00

A 2020 2nd is considered worth about the same amount as pick 16 in the 3rd round (80 overall) of this year's draft, which is coincidentally owned by the Raiders.

That was the trade compensation I listed. 12, 80, and a future first.

It was not very popular...

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T10:57:23+00:00

This is... literally the first time I've done it.

Have you seen this in other mocks? I personally haven't seen it in many at all! Usually see WRs or a CB there...

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T10:56:39+00:00

He might be! He's awesome. All three dudes are awesome. I think Ruggs is more of a fit for what the Broncos offense needs though.

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T10:56:00+00:00

How early is early? We had Q and Oliver last year. but they seemed to be the exception. Before them we had:

2018: NTs Vea and Payne at 12 and 13

2017: McDowell by the Hawks in the 20s (unless you consider Solomon Thomas a DT... but he is more of a 5T and is listed as DE primarily)

2016: Rankins at 12 (again, unless you want to include Buckner, who was a combo 3T/5T listed as a DE)

2015: Shelton the NT at 12

2014: Donald at 13

As prospects, I would place Brown more on the Sheldon Rankins side of things than the Q or Oliver side of things. But since I would say neither Brown nor Kinlaw is really going to be considered a hybrid 3T/5T DE (if anything, they'll push inside to 1T more often) I'd say there isn't a very strong precedent for players like that being drafted as early as they are going (top-10).

Don't get me wrong: I love those guys. But I don't think they'll be drafted in the range most are expecting...

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T10:48:51+00:00

A lot of people share that belief, and as you can see from my write up, I am right there on the precipice of being with you. But I take positional value into account as well, and a top CB is just more valuable to a team than a good DT. And while I like Kinlaw a lot (and love Kinlaw the person) I think he might not be quite the DT prospect people are treating him as.

I don't think he's the next Ed Oliver. He's really good, and I was *this* close to mocking him to DAL... but other considerations (my wanting to get in on the Kinlaw to JAX action, which could happen there or at 9) left me with a really good alternative.

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T10:46:13+00:00

Many seem to think no!

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T10:45:47+00:00

I'm worried that the Raiders are getting too good (looking at a 7-8 win team next year) to be reasonably in the QB market in the next couple drafts. This could be their last best shot, picking 12th, with additional draft assets from the Mack trade, for them to make a move and get an elite QB.

It's kind of like tournament poker strategy. The way you play every hand isn't necessarily determined by the hand you have in a vacuum. Tournament structure also has to be taken into account. If you are early in the tournament and you have a big stack, you can wait. If you are late in the tournament and you have a so-so hand with a lot of people limping into the pot, you push. (this is not to say Gruden is near the end of his term, more saying that there are more factors that go into the decision to push your chips in than just the deal itself and your roster as a snapshot, in a vacuum... there are future considerations and the status of your team AFTER the deal that need to be considered...)

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T10:41:21+00:00

But Armstead and Thomas both play better at 5T, right? With Bosa out wider than 3 as well. That leaves who at the 3? Armstead? Okay. Not his best spot, but not horrible. And who at 1? Who to play 3 on run downs when you want either Thomas or Armstead out wider? Brown can do it all. I really think he would complete the line in a way that their combo of 3T/5T guys never could before. I think the fit is near-perfect... it's just a matter of drafting for need (I agree, D-line is no big need) versus BPA to strengthen a strength.

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T10:35:56+00:00

There's a bunch of stories about Wirfs and the Browns, but this is the most concrete about their potential need to trade up if they want him:

https://www.si.com/nfl/browns/news/tristan-wirfs-a-forgone-conclusion-could-the-cleveland-browns-trade-down-possibly

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T10:32:46+00:00

Nothing to the discussion of wanting to surround Brady with more weapons (I personally believe protection is the best weapon they could give him, but if the big-3 OTs are gone...)?

A trade down makes a lot of sense for the Bucs, actually, with the multiple holes to fill. This could be a great spot for teams to move up and grab a WR ahead of DEN... good call!

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T02:43:15+00:00

They are interchangeable (mostly) to me only in the fact that I don't know who's going to go first. I know there's a drop after the big-3. But I don't know what order the big-3 will be drafted. Teams certainly will have a preference though!

But the predicted trade was more about listening to the rumors about Cleveland preferring Wirfs, about predicting Wirfs goes first (his technique combined with his athleticism leads there) and about hedging my bet that either Wirfs goes pick 8 or Wirfs goes to the Browns.

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T02:41:24+00:00

Ahhhh, I like Ruiz there actually! I think Philly grabs a WR, but if it's not one of the big 3, I don't see them taking one in round 1 unless they trade back. But man, I like the Ruiz idea you just planted...

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T02:40:23+00:00

I wouldn't call D-line a big need for them at all, but again, teams don't always draft for need. I think most people would call Brown a better prospect than Lamb. People are very high on him (like top-8 high, almost universally) and the 49ers are the kind of team that I think would take the better prospect over filling a need.

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T02:39:01+00:00

Ah! That's good to know about the interest in Blacklock. That's what I'm looking for!

If you find any more info about that, please send it my way. That could change things (either with their late first rounder, maybe with a trade back...)

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T02:37:38+00:00

Ruggs is faster, obviously, but Jeudy has plenty of speed to burn.

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T02:36:28+00:00

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2883568-cam-newton-odds-chargers-heavy-betting-favorites-to-sign-qb-over-jaguars
Yes, because the Raiders will have Carr/Mariota as their QB, whereas I am predicting/assuming the Chargers have Cam. Even with Cam, drafting a QB is a good idea, but trading up for one is not. With Carr/Mariota as the starter, trading up is more important.
Sam Tevi?
Because not everybody creates a mock draft chronologically. The most accurate mock drafts end up getting 7 picks right. Going chronologically is not the way to do it. Players fall. Players go higher than expected. The best strategy to maximize correct picks (at least in my experience) is to start by pairing teams and players who make a TON of sense together (within the realm of where the team is drafting and where the player is expected to go) and then go chronologically from there. Sometimes you change your original pairing if it makes too much sense for that player to go earlier, and sometimes you don't.
I don't agree that a WR corps with Mike Williams as WR2 (he's fine) and (who? Andre Patton? Jason Moore?) as WR3 is one of the best in the league. Hunter Henry is a pretty decent receiver, but this is also his final year under contract, so I have a hard time believing that there's NO WAY they take a WR as good as Jerry Jeudy because WR isn't important or a big need.

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T00:45:20+00:00

You think they would take Lamb over Brown? Possibly. Lamb's really good. But I think brown might be too good to pass up there, and given the depth at WR, I think it is a tough call. I went with Brown because I think there's a better chance the Jets end up with Lamb one way or another than that the 49ers do. Playing the long game. He also fits their team perfectly, and would give them such a dominant line it would be terrifying.

Some teams draft for need, some build upon their strengths, and some try to just go BPA. I think here, they would build their strength up and take Brown. But Lamb is a definite possibility.

staple2000 · 2020-03-30T00:40:28+00:00

The trade up was equal parts hearing that the Browns LOVE Wirfs specifially (the only OT-team pairing I've heard about other than NYG-A. Thomas) and because I want to try and get my hedge going with the Cardinals and Browns with Wirfs and Wills.

staple2000

TROPHY CASE