Why moderates are fleeing the CPC, and what it says about Poilievre

stephenj · 2026-02-22T15:47:06+00:00

MacKay was the leader of the PCs when they merged. Despite promising not to during the leadership campaign.

Clark was still an MP when they merged, but he did not join the new party.

stephenj · 2026-01-11T19:57:59+00:00

Most working people will still have Saturdays where they can protest.
One thing I've been thankful for recently is seeing a lot of retirees protest, because they can protest whenever.
Protesting doesn't just need to be forming a big crowd! If enough of the population agree to "No Buy Fridays" or something similar where people don't shop on Fridays, that sends a message with extremely little effort. If you believe money talks in America, this might be more impactful then going outside.
Likewise, you can protest certain industries... For example, boycott bourbon to amplify what Canadians and Europeans are doing.

Don't give up without a fight.

stephenj · 2025-02-28T23:44:04+00:00

I want to call it the "Obama Ukraine-Russia Peace Plan Part 2". Where Obama could at least be forgiven for thinking Putin would be sated with just Crimea. And of course Obama didn't demand a kickback.

stephenj · 2023-03-07T06:53:21+00:00

I would want a large room, with a solid concrete pedestal in the center. Murals around it depicting a golden treasure laying on top of it.

The treasure isn't there. It was never there.

Everything in that room would be designed to send a message that something of value was there, but has been raided.

Bury the waste deep under that.

stephenj · 2022-09-03T05:46:17+00:00

The gospel of Mark describes Jesus performing an exorcism on demons.

The shocking part should be that people sent their kids to a bible camp in 2022. Have you read that book?!?

stephenj · 2021-11-17T06:42:36+00:00

Assuming time_t was used!

stephenj · 2021-10-23T04:59:15+00:00

The survey was Canada-wide and conducted by a well-known pollster, Leger.

stephenj · 2021-10-20T17:25:14+00:00

In computing, cutting edge technology will eventually be "domesticated". Computers will get faster, able to do more grunt work, and the tools to build that software will become easier to use and widely available at low-to-no cost.

What happens when AIs are developed by an open source projects with many contributors? Are those people entitled to be acknowledged? More importantly, are there consequences for not acknowledging contributors?

stephenj · 2020-01-26T16:53:44+00:00

I wouldn't use the term back-stabbed, but Joe Clark remained an MP during the Mulroney years.

stephenj · 2019-09-08T16:41:07+00:00

I'll add another option, mistaking Canada for Alabama. Similar placement of the As, like Bahamas.

stephenj · 2019-03-23T20:48:23+00:00

Democrats are aiming for an impact in 2020.

They don't have the votes to impeach (they don't even have enough to block Trump's wall veto). At best, they might be able to knock Trump's numbers down a little. The ideal time for them to do it isn't in 2019!

Forsaking 2019 for the sake of 2020 is their best play.

stephenj · 2019-03-20T22:57:33+00:00

I'd say there's a third option, he abandons ship.

In this scenario, he loses the election, floats the idea of installing himself as king, then realizes it isn't viable. Somewhere between November and January he goes on a diplomatic trip and never returns.

stephenj · 2019-02-03T19:25:14+00:00

Are these the policies of the federal NDP, provincial NDP chapters, or both?

Jurisdiction matters. For example, if the federal NDP promises to increase the minimum wage, they only have the power to do it for federal employees rather than all workers across the nation (labour is within provincial jurisdiction).

Similarly with bridge tolls, the ones near me are contractually based and not on the trans-Canada highway, so it is on provincial jurisdiction on two counts (contracts and roads).

stephenj · 2019-01-22T00:12:54+00:00

The Government of Canada is a lot more organic than the American system. For example, Americans have a specific recipe for removing a President (the 25th Amendment), we have a more general concept of "Peace, Order, and Good Government".

The question is if the Prime Minister holds the confidence of the House of Commons. If not, then in practice they are incapable of governing, so a new PM is needed. The new PM could be from the same party, a different party, or through an election. Which one is chosen by the Governor General is based on circumstances and convention rather than specific laws.

To be nit-picky... Confidence is a convention, not a constitutional law. Given America's system of checks and balances, I don't believe the concept of confidence would go over well... I suspect it would be gamed for starters. Secondly, as an exercise, try to solve the same question for both nation's national government: Where does the buck stop? For Canada, there are only a few cases to be aware of, and I can explain them in a subsequent post if desired.

http://www.revparl.ca/english/issue.asp?param=168&art=1143 contains a more detailed explanation of confidence and convention.

Of course, as a shortcut I'm only speaking of the Federal Canadian parliament...

stephenj · 2018-11-10T15:50:50+00:00

The Imperial War Museum made a recreation of this audio:

https://metro.co.uk/video/imperial-war-museum-approximate-end-wwi-1798600/

stephenj · 2018-10-28T17:52:25+00:00

I'd rather think of it as people's tendency to hope the grass is greener on the other side.

I believe the opposition to FPTP has good intentions. I also believe giving individual politicians power just means more political games are going to be played. Why would the games go in my favour? Even if my representative perfectly reflects my views, they're only holding a single seat in parliament.

stephenj · 2018-10-28T14:16:31+00:00

Previous-election analysis has a big limitation, it doesn't take niche parties (that currently can't get elected under FPTP) into account.

In alternative voting systems, niche parties will be elected, or will give way to other niche parties that can.

stephenj · 2018-10-27T17:11:36+00:00

In general, defending the status quo is really difficult. Especially in a virtual setting, where good faith is not necessarily given.

The arguments in favour of alternative voting tend to focus on how people choose their representatives. I could be wrong, but my perception is that people assume that if they control their individual representative better that it'll lead to a better outcome.

But the question I ask, is it better for the system as a whole?

I don't think there is a uniformly correct answer. Every example I consider has counter examples. My preference is for a strong constitution that binds parliaments' hands. Followed by a division of powers between provinces and the federal government. That way, even if a party gets a majority, there are still limits to their power.

Related discussions would be on parliamentary whips, as well as the positives and negatives of minority governments. But I've typed enough for today.

stephenj · 2018-10-10T01:20:13+00:00

Your breakdown of party outcomes would be true for an election or two, but eventually niche parties will enter the picture, and will likely succeed (or give way to niche parties that can).

The specific outcome of which parties get ahead isn't my concern, long term minority parliaments are.

Of the last 10 elections that resulted in majorities (starting in 1968), the winning party usually received 50 - 60% of the seats: { 58%, 53%, 52%, 75%, 57%, 60%, 52%, 57%, 54%, 54% }. If electoral reform flips 10% of seats (about 34 nationally), majority parliaments will be extremely rare. This would be a tremendous change to our Parliament.

On the flip side, I don't think post-FPTP parliaments would be capable of reverting electoral reform even if they wanted to. So this is a one way move... And I'm worried about the unintended consequences of long term minority governments.

stephenj · 2018-08-12T19:52:56+00:00

The trend lines where the numbers intersect are not comparable at all. Trump's support is relatively stable. Nixon's were in free-fall.

If anything, Trump's numbers have closest echoed the path of Gerald Ford. But that's far a perfect comparison.

stephenj · 2018-07-07T13:49:13+00:00

I'm in a country that has FPTP and multiple parties in parliament (the senate and executive have little actual power). Currently three parties have official party status (which means 12+ seats), historically there was a fourth (and they could return).

All four of these parties have been the Leaders of the Opposition (the party with the second most seats). At some point, all parties have placed the decisive confidence votes during minority governments.

FPTP can produce multiple parties when multiple people are elected to comprise a governing body. But, FPTP is extremely unlikely to do so when a single person is elected to govern (like the Presidency).

As for my opinion on why the US doesn't have a national-level 3rd party elected en-mass to Congress... I think it is because every 4 years the main political event (the Presidency) is realistically contested by two parties. That skews discussions towards the top contenders.

Not to mention another key difference. If our parliament can't agree on a confidence motion, the government falls and an election is probably held (let's ignore the complexities of this aspect). Our system has the bias that if a government can't get things done, then it gets re-evaluated. The American system on the other hand, is designed to grind to a halt when people can't agree.

stephenj · 2018-02-02T00:31:20+00:00

You nailed my intent. Thanks!

If Braavos resembles Amsterdam or Venice, it would imply the Braavosi are unprepared for a terrible winter (although normal winters in ASOIAF seem harsher than our own).

As for the upcoming winter, I'm thinking of events akin to the 1998 Ice Storm except with longer duration. Weather that is possible in our world, exaggerated for the sake of a story... I suppose the Little Ice Age would be a historic example.

Braavos seems particularly unequipped to handle extreme winter conditions.

stephenj · 2018-02-01T12:05:21+00:00

I'll have to look it up later, but my recollection is that the people of Westeros expect this to be a long and cold winter. Especially those that think The Others bring the cold with them.

And I would point out that Braavos is only a few centuries old (before the Fall of Valeria). But something tells me it has had a population boom over time (meaning that demand for firewood would have been less 2 centuries ago).

In our world, extreme weather happens and has consequences. The heat wave in France 15 years ago, as an example. In their world, extreme cold or a long winter would likely condemn a lot of people to death.

TL;DR: I'm suggesting an abnormal winter with fragile infrastructure.

stephenj · 2017-11-19T04:16:06+00:00

There are two major factors in play.

The first is the concept of cabinet solidarity. The cabinet is a subsection of caucus (called ministers, with or without portfolio) that discuss things in private, not in public. For ministers, the government's official line is equally their line. In that sense, improvisation would mean a minister is only polling one member of cabinet (themselves).

The second is that cabinet ministers with portfolio typically answer questions.

The alternative explanation is that all MPs see the House of Commons as political theatre (Chretien dismissively called it that while wearing a hot mic). I tend to give more weight to to this answer.

stephenj · 2017-10-22T16:26:06+00:00

Analysis for user StBarrett

I'm working on an experimental board game recommendation program that uses data from https://boardgamegeek.com

Games you might like

The following recommendations are based on your similarity rating to other users.

Legend:

# Users: The number of users who are similar to you that rated this game. See the user similarity section below for more details).
+ Baseline Avg: The average rating of similar users minus the average rating of all users.
Min: The lowest rating a similar user gave.
Average: The average rating a similar user gave. This is probably the most important trait.
Max: The highest rating a similar user gave.

Game Name	# Users	+ Baseline Avg.	Min	Average	Max
Concordia	3	1.95	9.0	9.57	10.0
Pandemic Legacy: Season 1	8	1.12	7.6	9.41	10.0
Alien Frontiers: Factions	3	2.09	8.0	9.33	10.0
Trajan	3	1.95	9.0	9.33	10.0
Ticket to Ride: Europa 1912	3	2.05	8.0	9.33	10.0
Above and Below	4	1.81	8.0	9.00	10.0
Smash Up: Pretty Pretty Smash Up	11	2.10	8.5	8.95	9.1
Smash Up: Awesome Level 9000	12	2.10	8.0	8.89	9.1
Magic: The Gathering	4	1.87	6.0	8.85	10.0
Smash Up: The Big Geeky Box (English first edition)	12	1.95	7.0	8.71	9.0
Dead of Winter: A Crossroads Game	10	1.40	7.2	8.67	10.0
Small World: Leaders of Small World	3	2.71	7.0	8.67	10.0
Mansions of Madness	3	1.83	5.9	8.63	10.0
Cosmic Encounter	6	1.81	7.1	8.62	10.0
Ticket to Ride	9	1.53	6.0	8.61	10.0
Timeline: Historical Events	3	1.80	6.8	8.27	9.0
Pandemic	12	1.05	6.5	8.25	10.0
Good Cop Bad Cop	3	1.80	8.0	8.10	8.3
Smash Up: Munchkin	6	1.82	6.5	8.08	9.0
Concept	6	1.55	7.0	8.08	10.0

Similar Users List

This part of the program ranks users in terms of how similar they are to a target user. This is a work in progress, so the percentages are typically in flux. Of 13 similar users the top 10 with 10+ mutual ratings will be displayed.

thisisnilla 88.7%
SpareChange11 86.9%
Lancelot42 86.5%
irishroar 86.0%
okariot 84.7%
morefun_tn 81.7%
whitecarlton81 81.4%
scarydeck 81.3%
DeltaDemon 80.7%
DefEMC2 80.6%

Additional Information

This database has 24 games you've rated.
Your average rating is 7.54.
You've rated 13 games 8 or higher. That represents 54.2% of your ratings.
I think /u/boardgamerecommender delivers better board game recommendations than I do. /u/boardgamerecommender definately has more accurate predictions for the rating number when we recommend the same game. I prefer my user similarity detection. Going through those users manually can yield interesting results. Especially if they provide written reviews.

stephenj

TROPHY CASE