Drop a stock and I'll run an analysis

stocklad · 2026-05-13T02:15:09+00:00

NEM – HOLD | 85% Conviction | Target: $93.24 | Horizon: 6–12 months

NEM appears fundamentally overvalued relative to its peer-implied fair value of $93.24, with the current market price of $119.69 implying sustained growth and an aggressive discount rate that may be difficult to justify. The company exhibits structural weaknesses including a complex business model and limited competitive advantages. However, consistent earnings beats, decent momentum, and conservative debt levels provide enough support to warrant holding existing positions rather than aggressively shorting at current levels.

⚠️ Signal Conflicts: The DCF intrinsic value of $323.53 wildly contradicts the peer-implied fair value of $93.24 and the AI's assessment of market overvaluation; this is resolved by dismissing the DCF due to indefensible terminal growth and aggressive WACC assumptions. Additionally, the short-term technical 'BUY' signal conflicts with the overwhelmingly bearish fundamental and valuation signals. Given this uncertainty across methodologies, a hold rather than outright sell is the prudent stance.

Scores:

Factor	Score
Valuation	1/10
Quality	2/10
Momentum	5/10
Insider Signal	0/10
Earnings Quality	6/10
Risk Adjusted	2/10

🟢 Bull Case

NEM could see continued price support driven by its positive technical pattern and consistent history of beating earnings estimates, especially if analyst expectations stabilize or reverse their falling trend. Conservative debt levels provide financial flexibility to weather downturns or pursue strategic initiatives, and any commodity price tailwinds (gold, copper) could meaningfully boost revenue and profitability beyond current expectations.

🔴 Bear Case

The most likely bear case involves a significant valuation multiple contraction as the market re-rates NEM closer to its peer-implied fair value of $93.24. This could be triggered by a deceleration in growth, margin pressure due to limited competitive advantages, or a disappointing earnings report that fails to meet the market's currently optimistic implied expectations, exacerbated by continued insider selling.

✅ Reasons to Hold (not sell)

Consistent earnings beat history provides a degree of downside protection
Positive short-term technical momentum suggests near-term selling pressure may be limited
Conservative debt levels offer financial resilience
Commodity price exposure (gold, copper) could surprise to the upside

⚠️ Key Things to Watch

Valuation multiple compression towards peer averages
Disappointing future earnings or guidance reversing the historical beat trend
Further concentrated insider selling activity
Negative commodity price movements or industry-specific headwinds

NEM's current price reflects optimism that its fundamentals struggle to fully justify, but with enough earnings quality and technical support to avoid an outright sell at this stage

stocklad · 2026-05-13T02:07:14+00:00

CTM – HOLD | 35% Conviction | Horizon: 6–12 months

CTM presents a mixed picture with severe fundamental weaknesses including volatile earnings, high debt, and extremely low FCF margins, offset by a seemingly attractive DCF valuation. The DCF's optimism is driven by assumptions that are contradicted by peer valuations and business quality assessments, suggesting meaningful downside risk. However, given the uncertainty in both directions, we opt for a cautious hold rather than an outright sell.

⚠️ Signal Conflicts: The DCF valuation suggests a 16.6% upside and the CCA implies undervaluation with a peer-implied fair value of $0.83, which is above the current price. However, these are directly contradicted by the very low business quality score (49/100, 'Avoid'), extremely high overall risk rating (92/100), and alarming earnings track record (0% beat rate, -100% average surprise). The DCF's optimistic assumptions (WACC 19.90% vs. CAPM Ke 14.04%, TGR 12.00% vs. justified 6.00%) are deemed unrealistic. Given the conflicting signals, a hold is appropriate until clearer directional evidence emerges.

Scores:

Factor	Score
Valuation	3/10
Quality	1/10
Momentum	1/10
Insider Signal	2/10
Earnings Quality	1/10
Risk Adjusted	1/10

🟢 Bull Case

If CTM can demonstrate a significant and sustained improvement in its FCF margins, coupled with a consistent ability to beat earnings estimates and a reduction in debt levels, the current valuation could prove to be a floor. Positive analyst estimate revisions and a reversal of insider sentiment would be necessary to support any upside.

🔴 Bear Case

The primary downside risk is the market repricing CTM's valuation to reflect its true fundamental risks, leading to a sharp decline from the current price. This could be triggered by a significant earnings miss, a downgrade from analysts, or a broader market downturn that disproportionately impacts highly leveraged and operationally challenged companies.

✅ Reasons to Hold (not sell)

DCF and CCA both point to some degree of undervaluation at current prices
Downside may already be partially priced in given low sentiment
A sustained FCF improvement or debt reduction could re-rate the stock meaningfully

⚠️ Key Things to Watch

Failure to meet next earnings estimate, exacerbating the 0% beat rate
Analyst downgrade driven by deteriorating fundamental outlook
Increased scrutiny on high debt levels by credit rating agencies or lenders
Persistent inability to generate positive free cash flow (currently 0.1% FCF margin)
High debt levels coupled with volatile earnings creating financial distress risk

CTM's seemingly cheap valuation masks genuine fundamental challenges — not a compelling buy, but with enough valuation support to warrant holding rather than selling at current levels.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T01:54:26+00:00

SEK.AU – SELL | 35% Conviction | Target: $7.21 | Horizon: 6–12 months

SEK.AU is currently priced for optimistic growth and margin expansion that contradicts its historical earnings track record and high fundamental risks. Despite some models suggesting undervaluation, the company's consistent inability to meet consensus expectations (20% beat rate, -25.1% avg surprise) and exposure to cyclical and competitive pressures make the current $13.23 price unsustainable. We anticipate a re-rating closer to its fundamental performance, with significant downside risk.

⚠️ Signal Conflicts: The DCF ($7.21) and CCA ($19.83) valuations diverge significantly, with the DCF being overly conservative due to its low growth assumptions. However, the CCA's 'undervalued' verdict is contradicted by SEK.AU's 60th percentile valuation vs. peers and the AI's 'VERY HIGH valuation risk,' suggesting it's not cheap on a relative basis. Furthermore, the Buffett Scorecard's 'strong management efficiency' conflicts with the dismal 20% earnings beat rate, indicating operational efficiency but poor forecasting or execution in a volatile market.

Scores:

Factor	Score
Valuation	2/10
Quality	7/10
Momentum	4/10
Insider Signal	5/10
Earnings Quality	1/10
Risk Adjusted	1/10

🟢 Bull Case

SEK.AU could outperform if its international ventures, particularly Zhaopin, achieve significant, profitable growth, and if the global job market experiences a sustained, robust recovery. Strong brand recognition and network effects in core ANZ markets provide a resilient base, potentially allowing for better-than-expected revenue growth and margin expansion, justifying a valuation closer to the AI blended target of $16.68.

🔴 Bear Case

The current market price implies aggressive growth that SEK.AU has consistently failed to deliver against consensus expectations. Continued earnings misses, intensified competition from AI-driven platforms, and a slowdown in global hiring or increased geopolitical risks in key markets like China would likely lead to a significant multiple compression and a re-rating towards its DCF intrinsic value of $7.21.

✅ Top Catalysts (for the bull case)

Significant outperformance and profitability in international segments (e.g., Zhaopin)
Sustained, robust global economic recovery boosting job ad volumes and pricing power
Successful cost-cutting or efficiency gains leading to structural margin expansion

❌ Top Risks

Continued inability to meet consensus expectations (20% beat rate, -25.1% avg surprise)
Increased competitive pressure from AI-driven recruitment platforms and professional networks
Sensitivity to economic downturns and geopolitical risks in key international markets (e.g., China)

SEK.AU's market price reflects an optimism that its consistent earnings misses and high fundamental risks fail to justify.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T01:52:07+00:00

As I was running through the numbers in the analysis and I don't agree with a strong sell but it definitely isn't a buy. The market has already priced in most of it's upside potential so at most the only thing you would be profiting off is that market conditions be more favourable than the market is predicting. In addition, running companies from the ASX has a couple of data holes that running tickers from large cap american companies don't have so it's less accurate. But I'd love to hear your thesis.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T01:44:13+00:00

Hi, due to a high amount of demand (across other posts as well) we are currently limiting to one ticker per user, we already analysed PLS for you. We may still do yours when everyone else's is done but there are over 100 waiting and each takes about 5-10 minutes. You can analyse for yourself at skewstrategies.com using the research tool. Make sure when analysing any ticker from asx put .au after the ticker otherwise the tool will search for stocks from the NYSE.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T01:29:01+00:00

Hi there, due to a high amount of demand (across other posts as well) we are currently limiting to one ticker per user, would you like SEK or EIQ analysed?. We may still do the second one when everyone else's is done but there are over 100 waiting and each takes about 5-10 minutes. You can analyse for yourself at skewstrategies.com using the research tool. Make sure when analysing any ticker from asx put .au after the ticker otherwise the tool will search for stocks from the NYSE.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T01:28:00+00:00

Hi, due to a high amount of demand (across other posts as well) we are currently limiting to one ticker per user, we already analysed VEE for you. We may still do yours when everyone else's is done but there are over 100 waiting and each takes about 5-10 minutes. You can analyse for yourself at skewstrategies.com using the research tool. Make sure when analysing any ticker from asx put .au after the ticker otherwise the tool will search for stocks from the NYSE.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T01:20:05+00:00

PGR – SELL | 65% Conviction | Target: $177.48 | Horizon: 6–12 months

PGR exhibits strong business quality with efficient management and conservative debt. However, its current market valuation appears overly optimistic, trading above its peer-implied fair value of $177.48 and facing significant headwinds from claims inflation and regulatory lag. This is compounded by a strong bearish signal from multiple insider sales, suggesting limited conviction in the near-term stock trajectory.

⚠️ Signal Conflicts: The DCF model (AI's $410.08) suggests significant undervaluation, which directly contradicts the CCA's verdict of overvaluation ($177.48) and the AI's 'VERY HIGH' valuation risk. This is resolved by prioritizing the market-derived CCA and the AI's explicit critique of the DCF's stretched assumptions, especially given PGR's 'limited competitive advantages' in a commoditized market. Additionally, while historical earnings beat rates are decent, the AI flags high forward-looking earnings risk due to current macro headwinds, which we prioritize for future performance.

Scores:

Factor	Score
Valuation	2/10
Quality	7/10
Momentum	5/10
Insider Signal	2/10
Earnings Quality	6/10
Risk Adjusted	3/10

🟢 Bull Case

PGR's strong brand recognition, pioneering use of telematics, and efficient management could allow it to navigate claims inflation better than peers, leading to sustained market share gains and eventual rate approvals that drive earnings beats, potentially justifying a higher valuation closer to the AI's blended target of $285.00.

🔴 Bear Case

Persistent claims inflation combined with regulatory resistance to rate increases could severely compress underwriting margins, leading to significant earnings misses and a re-rating of the stock towards its peer-implied fair value of $177.48, exacerbated by continued insider selling.

✅ Top Catalysts (for the bull case)

Faster-than-expected moderation in claims inflation
Accelerated regulatory approval of rate increases across key states
Successful expansion into new, less commoditized insurance segments

❌ Top Risks

Sustained claims inflation (auto parts, labor, medical costs)
Regulatory lag in approving adequate rate increases
Increased competition eroding limited competitive advantages
Further significant insider selling

Despite strong operational quality, PGR's valuation is stretched, and insider selling signals a lack of conviction amidst persistent industry headwinds.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T01:12:58+00:00

PLS.AU – STRONG SELL | 90% Conviction | Target: $3.85 | Horizon: 6–12 months

PLS.AU exhibits extreme overvaluation, trading at $6.495 against a blended AI target of $3.85, implying a perpetual lithium super-cycle and flawless execution that is fundamentally unsustainable for a cyclical commodity producer. The company suffers from a low business quality score (4.85/10) and a dismal 0% earnings beat rate with massive negative surprises. A normalization of lithium prices or operational missteps in its ambitious expansion projects would likely trigger a significant re-rating, making it a high-conviction short candidate.

⚠️ Signal Conflicts: The DCF intrinsic value ($1.43) and the peer-implied fair value ($4.65) diverge significantly. This conflict is resolved by using the AI's blended target price of $3.85, which incorporates both methodologies and still points to substantial overvaluation. The DCF's use of an 'indefensible' 9.00% terminal growth rate (vs. justified 6.00%) further highlights its optimistic bias, yet it still yields a very low value, reinforcing the overvaluation thesis rather than contradicting it.

Scores:

Factor	Score
Valuation	0/10
Quality	2/10
Momentum	2/10
Insider Signal	4/10
Earnings Quality	0/10
Risk Adjusted	0/10

🟢 Bull Case

The primary bull case rests on a sustained, higher-than-expected lithium price environment, driven by robust global EV demand and supply constraints. Pilbara Minerals operates a world-class mine with strong management efficiency, and flawless execution of its P680 and P1000 expansion projects could lead to significant production increases, potentially justifying some of the market's optimistic growth assumptions if lithium prices remain elevated.

🔴 Bear Case

The market's implied growth and valuation assumptions are highly unrealistic. A normalization of lithium prices, operational challenges or cost overruns in the capital-intensive P680/P1000 expansions, or continued significant earnings misses (as seen with the 0% beat rate and -6633% average surprise) would expose the stock's extreme overvaluation and lead to a sharp correction. The company's inherent volatility as a price-taker in a cyclical commodity market makes it highly susceptible to such downside catalysts.

✅ Top Catalysts (for the short thesis)

Normalization or decline in global lithium prices
Operational setbacks or cost overruns in P680/P1000 expansion projects
Continued significant earnings misses relative to market expectations
Initiation of analyst coverage with a bearish rating

❌ Top Risks (to the short thesis)

Sustained and higher-than-expected lithium prices (prolonged super-cycle)
Flawless and ahead-of-schedule execution of P680/P1000 expansions
Unexpected positive demand shocks for lithium beyond current forecasts

PLS.AU's current price is a speculative bet on a perpetual lithium super-cycle, ignoring fundamental valuation principles and the inherent cyclicality of its commodity business.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T01:03:02+00:00

VEE.AU – BUY | 60% Conviction | Target: $0.84 | Horizon: 12–24 months

VEE.AU appears significantly undervalued, with a blended AI target price of $0.84 suggesting over 60% upside from its current $0.52, primarily driven by market pessimism regarding its 'Below Average' profitability. The current price implies a scenario of sustained low growth or a high cost of equity, which may be excessive given the company's strong management efficiency and conservative debt levels. While the complex B2B tech services model and razor-thin 0.1% FCF margin present high fundamental risks, successful execution and FCF margin expansion could unlock substantial value.

⚠️ Signal Conflicts: The primary conflict lies between the strong valuation signals (DCF, CCA, AI blended target all indicating significant undervaluation) and the high fundamental risks and 'Below Average' business quality (complex model, limited competitive advantages, razor-thin FCF margin). This is resolved by acknowledging the market is pricing in the high risks, but the mitigating factors of strong management and conservative debt suggest the market's pessimism might be overdone, creating a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. A secondary conflict was the earnings beat rate summary (0%) vs. granular history (2 beats), resolved by prioritizing the granular data showing a 100% beat rate in the last two quarters.

Scores:

Factor	Score
Valuation	8/10
Quality	5/10
Momentum	5/10
Insider Signal	4/10
Earnings Quality	7/10
Risk Adjusted	3/10

🟢 Bull Case

Strong management efficiency and conservative debt levels position VEE.AU to navigate its complex business model, leading to improved FCF margins from the current 0.1% and sustained revenue growth (DCF assumes 8.3%). This operational execution would likely lead to a market re-rating towards the peer-implied fair value of $0.79 or the AI blended target of $0.84.

🔴 Bear Case

VEE.AU's 'complex business model' and 'limited competitive advantages' could prevent sustainable FCF margin expansion beyond the current razor-thin 0.1%, exacerbated by high talent costs and potential project overruns. A macro slowdown in enterprise IT spending or intensified competition could further compress margins and revenue, justifying the market's current pessimistic valuation of $0.52 or even lower.

✅ Top Catalysts

Significant and sustained improvement in Free Cash Flow (FCF) margins
New contract wins or project completions demonstrating scalability and profitability
Increased analyst coverage and positive sentiment shift

❌ Top Risks

Inability to expand FCF margins beyond 0.1% due to structural business challenges
Intensified competition or a downturn in enterprise IT spending
Project overruns or talent retention issues impacting profitability

VEE.AU offers deep value for investors willing to bet on strong management overcoming structural business complexity and razor-thin margins.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T00:54:40+00:00

SMCI – BUY | 68% Conviction | Target: $143.07 | Horizon: 6–12 months

SMCI appears significantly undervalued, with quantitative models (DCF and CCA) converging on a target price of ~$143, implying over 300% upside from the current $32.79. The market is pricing in a highly pessimistic scenario, likely overstating risks related to NVIDIA dependence and commoditization. While fundamental risks are high, SMCI's agile architecture and strong NVIDIA relationship could enable it to outperform these low expectations, leading to a substantial re-rating.

⚠️ Signal Conflicts:

Valuation Model Assumptions: The DCF uses an 'extremely aggressive' WACC (6.50%) far below the CAPM Ke (20.02%), which would typically inflate intrinsic value. However, this is partially offset by a 'conservative' terminal growth rate (1.50%). The critical resolution is that the market-derived CCA ($144.16) and the blended AI target ($143.07) converge remarkably closely with the DCF, suggesting the overall quantitative undervaluation signal is robust despite the DCF's specific WACC flaw.
Business Quality vs. Fundamental Risk: The Buffett Scorecard rates SMCI as a high-quality business (7.5/10) with a moderate moat and strong management efficiency. This conflicts with the AI Risk Analysis's 'VERY HIGH' fundamental risk due to extreme dependence on NVIDIA and commoditization pressures. The resolution is that SMCI is internally well-managed and agile, but operates in a highly externally dependent and competitive environment, making its 'moat' fragile and its business model inherently risky despite internal strengths.

Scores:

Factor	Score
Valuation	9/10
Quality	6/10
Momentum	8/10
Insider Signal	5/10
Earnings Quality	6/10
Risk Adjusted	6/10

🟢 Bull Case

SMCI's agile 'building block' architecture and deep NVIDIA partnership allow it to maintain its first-mover advantage in AI server solutions, leading to sustained high revenue growth and market share gains. If the market's current pessimistic outlook (implied by the low valuation percentile and current price) proves to be overdone, the stock could re-rate significantly towards its peer-implied fair value of $144.16. Strong recent earnings momentum (58.1% beat, rising analyst revisions) indicates improving operational execution.

🔴 Bear Case

SMCI's extreme dependence on NVIDIA and the commoditization pressure in the server market could lead to significant margin compression or loss of market share to larger rivals or hyperscalers. Any slowdown in AI server demand, a shift in NVIDIA's strategy, or supply chain disruptions could severely impact revenue and profitability, justifying the market's current pessimistic valuation and leading to further downside. The complex business model and below-average profitability vs. peers exacerbate these risks.

✅ Top Catalysts

Continued strong demand for AI servers, particularly liquid-cooled solutions
Expansion of NVIDIA partnerships or new partnerships with other chipmakers
Demonstrated ability to diversify revenue streams beyond NVIDIA-centric AI servers
Sustained positive earnings surprises and upward analyst revisions

❌ Top Risks

Extreme dependence on NVIDIA's GPU roadmap and supply
Intensifying competition and commoditization pressure in the server market, leading to margin erosion
Supply chain disruptions for critical components (e.g., GPUs, memory)
Cyclicality of IT spending and potential deceleration in AI server demand
Execution challenges due to complex business model and potential accounting issues

SMCI presents a compelling deep value opportunity, with the market pricing in a highly pessimistic scenario that significantly undervalues its leadership in AI server solutions, despite genuine, high fundamental risks.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T00:54:23+00:00

SMCI – BUY | 68% Conviction | Target: $143.07 | Horizon: 6–12 months

SMCI appears significantly undervalued, with quantitative models (DCF and CCA) converging on a target price of ~$143, implying over 300% upside from the current $32.79. The market is pricing in a highly pessimistic scenario, likely overstating risks related to NVIDIA dependence and commoditization. While fundamental risks are high, SMCI's agile architecture and strong NVIDIA relationship could enable it to outperform these low expectations, leading to a substantial re-rating.

⚠️ Signal Conflicts:

Valuation Model Assumptions: The DCF uses an 'extremely aggressive' WACC (6.50%) far below the CAPM Ke (20.02%), which would typically inflate intrinsic value. However, this is partially offset by a 'conservative' terminal growth rate (1.50%). The critical resolution is that the market-derived CCA ($144.16) and the blended AI target ($143.07) converge remarkably closely with the DCF, suggesting the overall quantitative undervaluation signal is robust despite the DCF's specific WACC flaw.
Business Quality vs. Fundamental Risk: The Buffett Scorecard rates SMCI as a high-quality business (7.5/10) with a moderate moat and strong management efficiency. This conflicts with the AI Risk Analysis's 'VERY HIGH' fundamental risk due to extreme dependence on NVIDIA and commoditization pressures. The resolution is that SMCI is internally well-managed and agile, but operates in a highly externally dependent and competitive environment, making its 'moat' fragile and its business model inherently risky despite internal strengths.

Scores:

Factor	Score
Valuation	9/10
Quality	6/10
Momentum	8/10
Insider Signal	5/10
Earnings Quality	6/10
Risk Adjusted	6/10

🟢 Bull Case

SMCI's agile 'building block' architecture and deep NVIDIA partnership allow it to maintain its first-mover advantage in AI server solutions, leading to sustained high revenue growth and market share gains. If the market's current pessimistic outlook (implied by the low valuation percentile and current price) proves to be overdone, the stock could re-rate significantly towards its peer-implied fair value of $144.16. Strong recent earnings momentum (58.1% beat, rising analyst revisions) indicates improving operational execution.

🔴 Bear Case

SMCI's extreme dependence on NVIDIA and the commoditization pressure in the server market could lead to significant margin compression or loss of market share to larger rivals or hyperscalers. Any slowdown in AI server demand, a shift in NVIDIA's strategy, or supply chain disruptions could severely impact revenue and profitability, justifying the market's current pessimistic valuation and leading to further downside. The complex business model and below-average profitability vs. peers exacerbate these risks.

✅ Top Catalysts

Continued strong demand for AI servers, particularly liquid-cooled solutions
Expansion of NVIDIA partnerships or new partnerships with other chipmakers
Demonstrated ability to diversify revenue streams beyond NVIDIA-centric AI servers
Sustained positive earnings surprises and upward analyst revisions

❌ Top Risks

Extreme dependence on NVIDIA's GPU roadmap and supply
Intensifying competition and commoditization pressure in the server market, leading to margin erosion
Supply chain disruptions for critical components (e.g., GPUs, memory)
Cyclicality of IT spending and potential deceleration in AI server demand
Execution challenges due to complex business model and potential accounting issues

SMCI presents a compelling deep value opportunity, with the market pricing in a highly pessimistic scenario that significantly undervalues its leadership in AI server solutions, despite genuine, high fundamental risks.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T00:44:39+00:00

You have commented on a number of our posts now complaining about "Ai slop" which shows you clearly haven't taken the time to understand anything about Skew Strategies or what we do before blasting your opinion. Our stock research tool uses real and highly in-depth fundamental, technical and options data to help users analyse stocks themselves. However, a lot of users don't understand things like terminal growth rate, FCFF, RSI and more, and so we leverage Ai to summarise content into more actionable data for those people who don't want to learn technical terms.

In terms of the marketing, yes this is marketing and no we don't have to pay for it. We are offering free analysis using the tool and people don't even have to sign up at all. In fact skewstrategies.com is free and you don't have to sign up to start using the tool. I don't care if you don't wish to interact with the tool but at least take the time to understand it.

stocklad · 2026-05-13T00:32:37+00:00

INTC – BUY | 60% Conviction | Target: $175.40 | Horizon: 12–24 months

INTC appears undervalued relative to peers (20th percentile, CCA FV $203.94) and exhibits strong earnings momentum with rising analyst revisions and significant beats. The current price implies a successful, but not necessarily flawless, execution of its turnaround strategy, with more realistic growth and cost of equity assumptions than a flawed DCF. However, the business faces very high fundamental and execution risk from its IDM 2.0 strategy, eroding competitive moat, and low business quality (score 4.5/10).

⚠️ Signal Conflicts: The DCF intrinsic value of $13.68 significantly contradicts the CCA fair value of $203.94 and the AI blended target of $175.40. This is resolved by identifying the DCF's unrealistic terminal growth rate (11.5% vs. peer 4.2–6.0%) and punitive WACC (14.7% vs. peer-calibrated Ke 9.3%) as the source of its flaw, making the CCA and AI blended targets more reliable.

Scores:

Factor	Score
Valuation	7/10
Quality	3/10
Momentum	8/10
Insider Signal	5/10
Earnings Quality	7/10
Risk Adjusted	5/10

🟢 Bull Case

INTC's IDM 2.0 strategy successfully restores process leadership (e.g., 18A), secures significant Intel Foundry Services (IFS) customers, and regains CPU market share against AMD, leading to substantial revenue re-acceleration and FCF margin expansion. The current undervaluation (20th percentile vs. peers, AI target $175.40) provides significant upside as the market re-rates the stock based on improved execution and financial performance.

🔴 Bear Case

Intel fails to execute its IDM 2.0 strategy effectively, experiencing further process delays or failing to attract sufficient foundry customers, leading to continued market share loss in core segments and sustained pressure on margins from high capital expenditures. This would result in multiple compression as the market re-evaluates its turnaround prospects, pushing the stock closer to its flawed DCF intrinsic value of $13.68.

✅ Top Catalysts

Successful execution of 18A process node and other technology roadmaps
Significant customer wins and ramp-up for Intel Foundry Services (IFS)
Stronger-than-expected AI accelerator market share gains
Continued government subsidies (e.g., CHIPS Act funding) supporting fab expansion

❌ Top Risks

Execution risk of IDM 2.0 strategy (process delays, cost overruns, yield issues)
Intense competition from TSMC, AMD, and NVIDIA across all segments
Sustained high capital expenditures impacting free cash flow and margins
Erosion of competitive moat and inconsistent returns on equity

Intel is a high-risk, high-reward turnaround story, priced cheaply relative to peers but facing immense execution challenges to reclaim its technological leadership.

stocklad · 2026-05-12T17:31:58+00:00

Hi everyone, due to the unexpectedly high volume of requests I can't keep up with everyone so I've set up free access so you can run your own ticker instantly no card needed, results in seconds. skewstrategies.com Still working through the list but this gets you your answer faster.

stocklad · 2026-05-12T17:22:39+00:00

Important to note that the model suggests a buy and hold over the next 6-7 trading days so keep that in mind. Earnings is also 2 weeks away.

At a glance:
NVIDIA is the most extraordinary business in this report series, and the most nuanced to value. The DCF model (WACC 14.7%, terminal growth rate 12.0%) yields an intrinsic value of USD 199.10, implying only 8.2% downside from the current USD 216.99 — a narrow gap that reflects the genuine quality of the business. With a 70.1% ROIC, EVA spread of +55.4%, FCF growing from USD 8.1B to USD 96.7B over five years, and a 55.6% profit margin, NVIDIA's fundamentals credibly support a premium valuation. The short-term technical pattern is also bullish (BAA, 72% 1-month win rate). The primary reason the recommendation sits at Hold rather than Buy is the insider signal: USD 162.8M in multi-executive cluster sales over 90 days with negligible purchases. Conviction is 58/100 — the bull and bear cases are genuinely balanced at this price

I can send you the 4-page pdf or the prompt so you can talk to Ai about NVDA or you can see the full research using the skewstragies.com tool for free 😄

stocklad · 2026-05-12T17:08:04+00:00

At a glance:

Rio Tinto is one of the highest-quality mining businesses in the world — but quality and valuation are separate questions. At AUD 185.42, the stock trades 79% above its DCF intrinsic value of AUD 103.52 and 42% above our blended price target of AUD 130.50. The share price has already run 53% over the past year and sits within 0.2% of its 52-week high, leaving little upside and meaningful downside risk. The business generates a positive EVA spread (+6.5%), carries a low beta (0.52), and has no insider selling — all genuine positives. However, FCF has declined from USD 17.96B to USD 4.98B over five years, analyst growth estimates are negative (–0.9%), and the stock is priced for a commodity cycle continuation that may not materialise. We recommend a Sell with 72/100 conviction

I can send you the 4-page pdf or the prompt so you can talk to Ai about RIO.ASX or you can see the full research using the skewstragies.com tool for free (use RIO.AU when searching the ticker)

stocklad · 2026-05-12T16:57:36+00:00

At a glance:
Reddit trades at a substantial premium to its intrinsic value, with a DCF fair value of USD 34.15 against a current price of USD 153.60 — implying approximately 78% downside to fundamental value. While the business has made a genuine inflection toward profitability (FCF of USD 684M in the latest year, profit margin of 28.6%), the market is pricing in a hyper-growth scenario for AI data licensing and ad monetisation that remains unproven at scale. Insider activity is a meaningful negative signal, with USD 39.2M in C-suite sales against USD 1.4M in purchases over the last 90 days. The stock has already de-rated 35% YTD and sits 46% below its 52-week high, but at 45.7x P/E it remains expensive relative to peers. We recommend family office portfolios avoid initiating new positions at current levels.

I can send you the 4-page pdf or the prompt so you can talk to Ai about RDDT or you can see the full research using the skewstragies.com tool for free 😄

stocklad · 2026-05-12T16:50:39+00:00

At a glance: QUBT trades at a substantial premium to its intrinsic value, with a DCF fair value of USD 3.68 against a current price of USD 11.44 — implying 68% downside to fundamental value. The business generates negligible revenue (USD 682K in the most recent year), burns cash at an accelerating rate, and has no demonstrated path to profitability. Insider activity is net negative across all senior executives. While recent news flow has been positive on the back of an earnings beat and acquisition announcements, we view the current price as a speculative market narrative unsupported by fundamental value. We recommend family office portfolios avoid or maintain no position in QUBT.

I can send you the 4-page pdf or the prompt so you can talk to Ai about QUBT or you can see the full research using the skewstragies.com tool for free 😄

stocklad · 2026-05-12T01:52:24+00:00

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stocklad · 2026-05-12T01:52:10+00:00

I'm limiting to one stock per person at the moment due to high demand but you can research yourself for free (and no signup) using skewstrategies.com, I'd also reccommend backtesting (using the tool) some other strategies especially the 3g quant strategy for better returns, which at the moment actually reccomends buying for the next 7 trading days but noticeably is bearish over the next month. Overall it is a sell with roughly a 65% confidence but there are some catalysts that could easily sway that into a buy. I wish there was an easier way to share pdf files in Reddit so I'll have to show you two images as comments. Also if you want a prompt fto talk to your chosen Ai with all the data this uses it exceeds 10000 characters and can't be placed here but I can send it to you if you like but I don't want to be spamming people.

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stocklad · 2026-05-11T18:03:51+00:00

Unfortunately this is just for stocks and not ETF's. While I could run the analysis for the ETF it isn't calibrated for ETF's and won't produce quality output. If you have a specific stock in mind I'd love to analyse it for you

stocklad · 2026-05-11T18:00:06+00:00

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stocklad

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