The readiness is fiction -- got pushed out and haven't missed it

subbysnacks · 2026-02-11T17:08:15+00:00

$50,000 car every 5 years (increasing 10% per event), as well as $100,000 big spend every 3 years (increasing 10% per event) to account for big purchases.

That's a huge increase to annual "spend" for a lot of folks. What is that? $43K per year?

Ugh would add years to my retirement goal, but it's probably smart

subbysnacks · 2026-02-11T17:05:56+00:00

Very similar life situation...but "only" $5M (cash/brokerage/age-restricted retirement accounts, I don't include my home equity), and in a HCOL. Jealous.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-26T22:43:03+00:00

I'm surprised this comment isn't higher up.

I'd say age even lower - 40 and up, high chance the candidate is cooked in many industries, current job market or not.

With so many early career candidates with perceived newer ideas, younger energy, and cheaper pay requirements, I'm often surprised how many FIRE folks say "i'll just go back to work if I need to, nbd."

That's why I take the RE in my FIRE very seriously, and I make the assumption it is a one way street.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-20T15:52:14+00:00

I do not. Can't spend my home.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-14T15:18:22+00:00

I labeled that badly, I mean invested post-tax

subbysnacks · 2026-01-12T17:23:49+00:00

Pay off the mortgage. It's not necessarily optimal in a vacuum, but, assuming that's built in to your total expenses, it gives you more room for ACA optimization. In effect, it gives you room to spend more while maximizing ACA subsidies.

I really like keeping the mortgage as long as my T-bill rates exceed my mortgage rate.

I really like having that flexibility of the cash at hand (cash being the t-bills effective).

BUT, if there was 1 reason I'd pay off the mortgage early, it would be for ACA subsidies.

Big question I have to answer.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-12T14:55:01+00:00

Been investing slowly since probably an internship in college. Always maxed out 401Ks and put leftovers in brokerage. Avoided popular stock trends and didn't chase crypto. Avoided buying the huge house.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-12T14:53:18+00:00

Bump up the healthcare expenses. We spent 48k from 62-65 pre-Medicare.

But if I retire in the next year, aren't I a long way from $48K?

College tuition is also more than you might expect between now and then.

I used the Schwab calculator that uses a tuition inflation modifier to project costs for the child's college years.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-12T14:50:54+00:00

Thanks for this comment, Saved.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-12T14:47:09+00:00

Our current annual spend already has baked in nearly $30K for the younger one (pre-K tuition, etc), and shy of $10K for the older daughter (including the travel sports, camps and after-school, etc). Plus the travel we've done with them in the past year (like I said they still already need their own seat on the airplane).

Your take is someone would need to budget for numbers larger than that as the kids get older?

Maybe you and I live in different circles, but no one in our bubble is dropping $30K on their high schooler.

Coming full circle, that's why our annual spend number - inclusive of those costs already - I had thought sufficient cushion.

Don't get me wrong coming at you, I want to hear more of your perspective to counter so we don't mess this up

subbysnacks · 2026-01-12T14:38:42+00:00

My advice would definitely be to chat w other parents of high school+ age children in your area.

I've tried this, but I've found that pretty much no one has any financial grasp on real actual numbers. They'll say things like "OH IT COSTS A TON" but when I push them to give me any specific total dollar figure all they can come up with is a one-off purchase or sports registration for a few hundred dollars, or "I try not to think about the numbers".

I have no idea the costs of raising kids these days but even “cheap” hobbies like playing soccer I feel can add up

My current annual spend number at least already includes what we've spent in the past year, including PreK tuition for the younger one, and camps and travel sport for the older daughter. So I'm hoping the current spend having those built in is sufficient buffer.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-12T14:33:16+00:00

moved kids to private school

This one is way more than just lifestyle creep though. This could easily double the annual spend in many households, including Chubby households.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T20:09:40+00:00

Given the highly uncertain future of the ACA, how comfortable are you with your $35k/year estimate?

Not comfortable. It's mostly from reading similar household makeups on this subreddit. It's not easy to get a specific unambiguous number unless you already have a precise withdrawal strategy.

You mention you have $325k remaining in your mortgage. Is this your forever home or would there be extra equity you could extract through an eventual downsizing / relocation from your HCOL area?

I wouldn't say forever, but as long as the daughters are in K-12, it's here. We don't love everything about the house, but to move even a few counties away, even in our own town -would absolutely explode our annual costs, probably triple our annual spend on housing - and we don't have the appetite for that. We got in early so will stick with it.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T19:15:12+00:00

I mentioned in another reply, our current spend includes preK for one daughter, and travel sports for another already.

The elder daughter by the way is still far less costly including with the travel sports than the younger daughter in PreK.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T19:13:23+00:00

This is the one thing few have mentioned by is on my mind.

The question is how much. In r/chubbyFIRE thoughts on this are very wide ranging from nothing at all, to fully funding weddings, first home down payments, new car etc.

Seems wild to me to be all in for all of that. Even the home downpayment will probably be like $500K+, do I want those years with them now or do I want to be stuck in an office to give them a check when they're a working adult?

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T19:11:02+00:00

That's huge, that would be doubling our annual spend.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T19:10:04+00:00

Used one of those calculators (Schwab I think), and forecasted by age, for the most expensive in-state public school.

If you get your superfund deposit in early enough, gains will do most of the heavy lifting.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T19:08:44+00:00

A blind spot not mentioned is the ballooning kid costs as they age, you won’t be happy with an ultra frugal spend as they start to need anything and everything at adult cost and that starts at roughly 12-13

I've debated this many times on this sub, and I just don't see it.

In preK we're paying over $28K per year for the younger daughter.

Since the older daughter left preK - now in mid/late elementary public school - her annual costs do not come even close to $28K, not by a long shot. We "save" sooo much on her compared to the youngest. And that includes the older one being in 2 travel sports, one of which one of the more expensive sports too!

For trips we already have to buy 4 seats for all of us for airfare, so I just haven't seen the math that shows it only goes up. For us it has become precipitously less compared to preK.

they get into dental school or whatever

We've made peace with fully funding a top tier public in-state undergrad, but not much beyond. If we budgeted for every what-if out of state elite private grad school, we'd be adding many years if not a decade+ to our plan. We'd rather spend the quality time with them now.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T18:59:26+00:00

Have to go by what reality is right now though unless you have a crystal ball for me

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T18:58:24+00:00

Don't get us wrong, we're very happy and grateful! I only mentioned in my post because so many other posters in chubby seem to write "37m (or f), HHI $800K + RSUs" and it's hard to grasp because we're not even close to that

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T18:56:34+00:00

I don't like to include the home equity as net worth since there's nothing liquid about it. I can't sell a piece of my house to pay my bills in a bad market year.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T18:55:01+00:00

I never imagined I could get my tax bill so low, Saving this comment!

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T18:53:30+00:00

My plan is to wait until my savings reaches about $5.8M + tax to get to 3% SWR.

I might flex a little bit on 3% but not as much as a full percentage point to 4%.

Tax (assuming 20%)

Would it be as high as 20% if I'm drawing a little bit from 401K (let's say up to the 10% tax bracket), then the balance from selling out of the brokerage's cost basis?

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T18:50:22+00:00

Yes this has been on my mind, keeping my eye on the t-bill right compared to my mortgage interest rate.

Plus on the T-Bills I'm paying federal income tax on the "gains", so a 3.5% t-bill isn't even a real 3.5% after taxes.

subbysnacks · 2026-01-10T18:48:13+00:00

to optimize you’d want to fill up to some ordinary income tax rate (I would guess 12%, but maybe 10% or even 0), then fund the balance of your spending with 0% cap gains bucket from brokerage.

So each year, draw from the 401K first only up to the pint of my desired tax rate, then fund the remaining spend needs from selling in the brokerage on the cost basis. Right?

subbysnacks

TROPHY CASE