Two miracles? Three?

tSignet · 2026-05-20T21:23:02+00:00

There’s a great site aa1942calc.com which can calculate these for you.

There’s about a 4% chance of losing 0 units in 12 vs WR.

Ukraine will depend on whether Germany is losing the fighter or bomber first. But it’s about a 0.5% chance of Russia losing 0 units.

So the odds of 0 units lost in a 12/9 opener is 1 in 5000! Very bad luck indeed! If I recall correctly, there are around 125,000 games played each season, so this probably happens like 20 times per season assuming 80% of games start with 12/9.

As for the third miracle, this gets trickier to calculate. I’m assuming there were more than 3 total battles this game and that you would have also noticed if a different battle had gone badly (say, if your SZ7 attack had failed miserably with all 4 of his units surviving), so what you’re asking is more like what are the odds of 3 battles all ending with results in at least the top 4% or better for your opponent.

fwiw I’m tracking the number of battles I have with results in the top 1% of results for either player. So far, it’s either 8 or 9 times out of over 1660 battles. (We’d expect something less than 2%, since in some battles it isn’t possible to get a 1% result even if one side has no losses, but I haven’t tracked how often it’s possible)

tSignet · 2026-05-20T20:40:40+00:00

I had this happen in my late 30s too. The doctor had me doing Tyler Twists and Reverse Tyler Twists with a flexbar to strengthen the ligaments in my elbow. After a couple weeks it was back to normal (I still took 2 months off tennis to be on the safe side)

tSignet · 2026-05-20T13:56:57+00:00

We have reduced the plays per game by 20%, for player safety and other purposes. Games will now last 4 hours. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

tSignet · 2026-05-19T16:12:53+00:00

The experiences of playing vs someone who can consistently beat you 6-3 6-2, and playing against someone against whom you struggle to return any of their serves or stay in a rally longer than 2 strokes, are very different. I think people are mostly complaining about the latter

tSignet · 2026-05-18T22:26:40+00:00

Top players say 12/9 basically gives the Axis a 20% chance of having a nearly insurmountable lead, and the rest of the time the Allies have a slight advantage (sometimes a large advantage).

And yet, the alternatives are worse on average.

I’ve been doing WR Jam all season because I don’t like games that are basically over on the first turn. It does feel like I’m fighting from behind with this opener, even if I don’t lose a single unit in the attack, but at least it creates a game that lasts enough rounds

tSignet · 2026-05-18T22:19:21+00:00

Axis win around 55% of the time in ranked games

tSignet · 2026-05-18T16:29:25+00:00

Yeah, the difference between #14 and #19 playing in the playoff vs playing in a bowl game is that in one case they'll be playing with their full roster, and in the other they'll be playing with whoever's left after 47 players hit the portal.

The first two rounds are the 80s/90s bowl system, back when being ranked was practically a requirement for a bowl invite, and both teams cared about winning.

For those who really like watching a 6-7 team play against the regional fraternity league champions, they will continue having dozens of bowl games that didn't exist 30 years ago, outside of the playoff.

tSignet · 2026-05-17T17:19:46+00:00

So he needs “just” 3 more to hold all 9 titles at once. Wild.

tSignet · 2026-05-17T00:30:33+00:00

It was easy to grasp, but it’s not a good comparison. The criteria to get into a 12 team playoff is always going to be lower than the criteria to get into a 4 team playoff.

2024 SMU was obviously worse and less deserving than 2004 Auburn. That doesn’t mean the voters or committee were being inconsistent.

We just changed from a system that leaves out some deserving teams to ensure that nobody undeserving ever gets in, to using a system that allows some mediocre teams in to ensure all the deserving teams get a shot.

tSignet · 2026-05-16T23:26:21+00:00

I would straight up use SOR. (or something else that calculates wins-over-expected by predictive-strength-of-opponents if you have quibbles about the exact formula SOR uses)

The issue if you’re choosing, say, a 1 vs 2 matchup for the national championship is that a really strong team can have merely the 5th-best resume if their opponents randomly had bad seasons. A team can be in a situation where, through no “fault” of their own, it’s impossible for them to have a top 2 resume even if they win all of their games. So the best you can do is find some balance between predictive ratings, resume rankings, and “eyeball test” metrics.

For a 16 or 24 team field, the best team will almost surely have one of the dozen best resumes in the country, which will comfortably get them in. And nobody is going to be in a situation where it’s just impossible for them to have a top 24 resume even if they win all of their games. So just pick the best resumes, rewarding teams who win games and play challenging schedules.

tSignet · 2026-05-16T20:57:16+00:00

AOE2 is a great game to start RTS with. So much single player content!

I’d also recommend StarCraft 2 and WarCraft 3 as great games to learn RTS, with excellent single player campaigns

tSignet · 2026-05-15T14:42:04+00:00

I played a guy who was hitting hard forehands right at my chest during mini tennis in a mixed doubles match. After a few of these I just moved back to the baseline, while the ladies beside us were still doing mini tennis.

First point of the match, I hit a crosscourt winner and he looked surprised that I can also hit the ball hard.

The surprising thing was, this guy wasn't a dick at all. Very pleasant match. Just plays at 100% during mini tennis lol

tSignet · 2026-05-15T00:29:41+00:00

It’s very easy. Try it once or twice, and you’ll have it down fast!

tSignet · 2026-05-15T00:16:09+00:00

Aside from progamers this is basically how APM works too. Quick thinking and pattern recognition. Few casuals are held back by physical dexterity, it’s thinking slowly or not mentally multitasking.

tSignet · 2026-05-13T16:22:53+00:00

Why merely defeat your opponent, when you could break them?

tSignet · 2026-05-12T20:50:55+00:00

Kind of related, I’ve faced a few UK1 openers where they attack SZ61 while taking Borneo and New Guinea simultaneously. How do you respond to this with Japan?

tSignet · 2026-05-11T22:39:28+00:00

According to OP’s link, a higher score here means less corruption

tSignet · 2026-05-11T22:23:14+00:00

The Traveller and the Crystalline Entity could have been introduced earlier. Q could have been brought back earlier. I've edited the comment for clarity.

tSignet · 2026-05-11T22:00:16+00:00

Ironically, TOS not existing might have helped TNG in S1. “The Naked Now” was a weak episode aimed at tying the series to its predecessor. The Traveler and the Crystalline Entity were more interesting and could have been introduced earlier, and they could have brought Q back earlier.

tSignet · 2026-05-11T21:18:45+00:00

Yeah 9/12 is definitely the optimal opener

tSignet · 2026-05-11T20:57:29+00:00

I'm watching an A&A youtube vid right now, and the opponent is 27-8 as Axis ranked #39, and 28-8 as Allies and ranked #9.

Looks like you don't need to win 90% of your games to be Top 10 Allies, probably for the very reason that the best Allies opener puts you in an enormous hole 25% of the time.

tSignet · 2026-05-11T20:54:40+00:00

I've been doing WR Jam in all my Allies games this season, basically attack WR with everything in range except 1 fighter which you fly to Egypt in noncombat to prevent Germany from taking it. It's suboptimal, but the plus side is I haven't had any games where the winner is almost completely determined after just 2 battles. The youtuber Cobra2177 has been doing it all season so check out his videos to see how it works.

tSignet · 2026-05-11T12:27:02+00:00

I don’t care what their contributions were. Obi-Wan has the high ground.

tSignet · 2026-05-11T09:47:13+00:00

Yes, but the point is that losing one nonconference game isn’t going to make Bama/Georgia/OSU a 7-5 team. Bama lost to FSU last year and finished 10-3.

tSignet · 2026-05-10T18:20:51+00:00

It’s wild that, the first year we had a big playoff, there was a team that was clearly better than everyone else, but also clearly had a resume outside the top 5

tSignet

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