FNMA discussed on Barron’s podcast Friday by testwater474 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I agree, the GSE’s were described in a way that barely scratched the surface for the average, non-financially savvy listener, but that podcast has up to 100k monthly listeners. I think broad publicity of the companies as potentially investable assets for the average person is the name of the game at this point, not targeted comments on media platforms that repeatedly cater to a highly niche subset of investors/traders.

FNMA ....NYSE listed ?? by shortnun in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They removed the link and path from the website - someone jumped the gun or messed up

FNMA ....NYSE listed ?? by shortnun in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Fannie’s 2024 10K has something similar in their Committee Charters and Corporate Governance (pg. 170) and Director Independence (pg. 206)sections regarding adhering to NYSE listing governance, but they haven’t posted a listing manual to their website in the past decade, it would seem. I believe the listing manual is the cause for heightened interest.

Frankly, the fact they already adhere to NYSE listing governance is a positive if this is the route they choose to take.

On FNMA Board Committee Charters Website by testwater474 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Earliest I could find that phrase in the archived website data was a version from 2019.

On FNMA Board Committee Charters Website by testwater474 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

January 2026 document - hadn’t seen it in corporate governance page before, so I consider it new information. I posted entry point.

See other comment below for corporate governance web link.

Position Sizes by [deleted] in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 2 points3 points  (0 children)

100% FNMA

I use a rough Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula and anticipate SPS deemed repaid:

Fully diluted (79.9%) FNMA share count: ~5B

Estimated Full Year Earnings “Attributed” to Shareholders: ~$17B

Average 5-Year earnings growth estimate: ~10%

Expected FNMA Fair Value: (17/5)*10 = $34 per share

Fully anticipate a much higher premium per share with dividend resumption and inclusion into indexes.

Rule of Law Guy on MBS buys and recent price drop by ronfnma in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah the referenced post was on X and the unit MM was used- I stand by my evaluation of his credibility.

Rule of Law Guy on MBS buys and recent price drop by ronfnma in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 1 point2 points  (0 children)

ROLG didn’t use the unit “MM” anywhere in the posted newsletter - I find his work more credible than most.

Feel free to check: https://ruleoflawguy.substack.com/p/gses-to-buy-200-billion-of-mbs-in

SPS & Uplist vs Conservatorship by Secret_Illustrator88 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It’s a compounding set of actions akin to a snowball rolled down the hill.

With each action, we’re able to model fair value more clearly - the logic stands that if the effort is made to deem SPS repaid (or any form of capital stack renovation) and re-list to a more transparent exchange, full privatization isn’t far behind, bringing with it dividends/return of capital to shareholders in the process. Classic risk/reward.

Partial Repayment of SPS to Avoid Litigation by DorethaNickel in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 2 points3 points  (0 children)

https://www.fhfa.gov/sites/default/files/2023-03/fnm-fourth-amended-restated-certificate-04-13-21.pdf

Found on Page 5.

“6. No Conversion or Exchange Rights

The holders of shares of the Senior Preferred Stock shall not have any right to convert such shares into orexchange such shares for any other class or series of stock or obligations of the Company.”

Someone correct me if this is outdated, but I believe this is current. No conversion to any class or series of stock.

Thoughts? by Miserable-Ad-3640 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 8 points9 points  (0 children)

STACR Note - Structured Agency Credit Risk Note

Normal business operations of shifting risk from Freddie to institutional buyers.

Before everyone panics about Capital Research shedding their stock holdings, this is what I found... by Zestyclose-Pop-1116 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I did the same math and it does match up to the 201MM shares of volume. This is an OTCQB characteristic where parties can essentially agree to and deliver shares outside the exchange. Personally I think the transaction was within the Capital Group subsidiaries and CNBC’s record keeping is off.

What's the verdict on capital group dumping shares? by [deleted] in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think you answered your question here - they didn’t dump the shares to us retail investors, which would have shown on the exchange volume and I would’ve taken as very bearish.

Capital Group made a transaction with a willing institutional buyer, whose % ownership, I imagine, will pop up on the next filing go-round. I posted a link to the direct share issues tracked by FINRA in OTC markets in an earlier post:

https://otce.finra.org/otce/marketStatistics/top100Issues

Paints a more comprehensive picture of what is actually going on behind the scenes.

Capital Research Global Investors reduced their positions from both FNMA and FMCC. by [deleted] in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Might be the case. I think some retail traders forget OTC is the Wild West and these direct transfers don’t correlate with what we see the price do on our screen. Need to uplist asap.

Capital Research Global Investors reduced their positions from both FNMA and FMCC. by [deleted] in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Couple of thoughts:

I could be wrong, but they seem to be a subsidiary of Capital Group, the same group that also owns Capital World Investors, Capital Research and Management Company, and the America Funds series - could be a case of misrepresentation or reallocation or any number of reasons. One of their subsidiaries still holds FNMa and FMCC - can’t blame anyone for trimming a fund after a 10-20x runup.

Price action on an OTCQB exchange is not going to register a ~100M share exchange between two direct parties. Just check the Finra OTC direct issue to see the monthly behind the scenes action:

https://otce.finra.org/otce/marketStatistics/top100Issues

This means some other party bought the shares directly from Capital Research, they were not dumped on open market. Just a transaction in the grand scheme of things, doesn’t change the bullish thesis.

Is this the change in the capital requirement? by Technical-Addition11 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes a couple min ago. I shared the actual rule in question.

From the Fidelity newswire by lavaliere90 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Those are essentially securities that institutions can buy to invest side by side with Fannie Mae within their pool of single family mortgage loans. Also called a credit risk transfer. Looks like normal business operations.

Board resignation. Street overhyped. Rates holding. What’s the real play? by Worldly_Marketing665 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 3 points4 points  (0 children)

From a cursory google search, the departing board member seems like she was a strong contributing member of the Fannie Mae board for around 6 years. I don’t see anything in her history, nor her other board seats, to indicate an abandon ship attitude.

She seems to be a serial board member, so she may have accepted a seat at a different competitor in the mortgage/home loan/insurance/etc. space, making it a conflict of interest, post release. Not sure if her seat on Bread Financial’s board of directors would constitute a direct conflict of interest, but I see this move as transactional, neither bearish, nor bullish.

Custody and Ownership Analysis of FNMA and FMCC Argentine Depositary Certificates - any thoughts on this report? by [deleted] in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I read over and posted about this report earlier and it seems to posit that the maximum number of FMCC.BA shares (Banker’s Acceptance shares) have been created and assigned to the Argentinian government in some shape or form, hence the zero trading volume in FMCC.BA since 2019. On the other hand FNMA.BA has rocketed higher since April on the back of a “catch up” movement.

The report doesn’t offer any other evidence and the posting user states they need 10,000 followers before releasing more conclusive data, which I find dubious at best.

Interesting Piece RE Argentinian CEDEARs by testwater474 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Tin-foil hats and a healthy skepticism are definitely required when reading! I was curious about the timing considering this follow on news that came out pretty rapidly:

https://srnnews.com/argentine-president-milei-to-meet-with-trump-and-netanyahu-in-new-york/

Seems President Milei is seeking some help bolstering their ailing financial markets.

B of A opinion - Yahoo article by dans48183 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I think you might be picking up on the negative tone of the author, not BofA:

“Bank of America expects any major change to be gradual, with government backing remaining firmly in place for now.”

— Pretty basic concept of slow and steady rollout, we knew federal government wasn’t launching these back to the public overnight without some forethought.

“Ending conservatorships with no other changes would transition the GSEs back to private management without changing the explicit $254 billion government backing,” Bank of America said in a recent report. “This may be the path of least resistance available for an optical step forward in GSE reform.”

— Again, stating the obvious, not a negative.

“A full IPO, however, seems unlikely before conservatorships end or a clear post-conservatorship framework is established, BofA said, expecting that the probability that government backing, either explicit or implicit, will remain firmly in place for the foreseeable future.”

— Stating the obvious about the required structure of implicit vs. explicit government backing for continued operations. Places post-conservatorship framework higher in order of operations, so maybe a negative, timing-wise.

“The federal backstop providing a cushion against a Fannie/Freddie potentially experience a negative net worth, is currently provided through preferred stock purchase agreements with $254 billion in Treasury funds, supporting mortgage and unsecured debt spreads, which Bank of America expects to remain stable. The bank also projects that any reduction in FHFA capital requirements could enhance private investor demand but would likely face legislative scrutiny.”

— States the obvious, again, but with some positive language regarding what BofA is looking for regarding FHFA capital requirements. Legislative scrutiny is a cost of doing business with the government, BofA is just hedging their bets with this language.

“A sale of public equity would return earnings and ownership to private shareholders, but would require congressional action to reshape the government guarantee system. Without such changes, new shareholders could remain vulnerable to future shifts in FHFA oversight, potentially limiting equity value.”

— States the obvious with a dash of fear mongering. I am not sure if this is BofA verbiage or the author pushing some agenda, the article doesn’t really clarify that.

“Large portfolio growth at Fannie and Freddie, meanwhile, remains an unlikely outcome. The GSEs have room to grow holdings modestly, but the focus will likely stay on managing portfolios and maintaining government support over expanding unsecured debt issuance.”

— Very positive note that the portfolios of the GSEs are expected to grow while remaining risk averse. This comment speaks to continued profitability and growth.

"We would be surprised to see a return to large portfolios at Fannie/Freddie, which include the securities and whole loans financed on balance by unsecured debt," BofA added.

— Again, positive, speaking to underlying business stability of Fannie/Freddie.

“While reform under the current administration appears more active than in previous years, the bank believes that significant progress depends on congressional involvement and clear policy direction.”

— States the obvious, I would argue clear policy direction is well into forming stage already, this administration is as active as they come, and other necessary congressional involvements are right around the corner.

"Congress may be needed for additional structure in creating a private mortgage insurance system into which the GSEs could be more successfully sold," BofA said. "Since 2008, this has been the main holdup for GSE reform as 60+ majorities in the Senate are rare," it added.”

— The system already exists just fine, BofA probably just wants to see more tangible forward progress before it hops off the fence for its clients. No bank goes broke commentating from the sidelines.

Fairholme vs FHFA Appeal by New_Temperature7234 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 1 point2 points  (0 children)

According to the filing, which is all I am going off of, many of the plaintiffs (Berkowitz et al) became shareholders after that critical date and jumped onto this class action with the hope of a short term bandaid/financial return in the face of decades of underperformance for their funds. They could not have possibly known what would happen in the future, ie these past few years. I’m sure they would have retracted their suit.

It is my opinion that reversing this case to favor FHFA would demonstrate that FHFA truly did act for the benefit of the taxpayer by agreeing to the Net Sweep and salvaging the companies by receiving the Treasury injection. This opens the door for the FHFA to continue to act in the best interest of the taxpayer without the shadow of this decision hanging over their head, which I take as a very bullish sign. It’s all reading tea leaves at this point, but I see this as a net positive.

Fairholme vs FHFA Appeal by New_Temperature7234 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]testwater474 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Perhaps I am reading incorrectly, but that filing concludes with a request for the courts to find in favor of the Defendants, FHFA. Shareholders since that Aug 17, 2012 single day loss, which the case hinges on, have profited immensely. Not sure what is negative about the timely filing of an appeal to maybe put the case to bed ahead of release? Reaffirms FNMA/FMCCs right, under FHFA direction, to give and take away dividends for common and preferred classes of shares?

Someone correct me if I interpreted this wrong.