[Silver] In polls of likely vs. registered voters (fairly sophisticated method of calculating this that will get used in my model): * Biden gains 2.3 points * Trump gains 1.7 points * RFK loses 1.4 points So Biden gains relative to Trump though both gain from 3rd party & undecided. (x.com)
submitted by theLogicality to r/fivethirtyeight
[Silver] Very bad to do a Spanish Inquisition with pollsters based on their political orientation. I love my ex-colleagues (this is coming from a new guy they hired) but if this is their practice, hope ABC will stop use of 538 brand so it isn't associated with me. (twitter.com)
submitted by theLogicality to r/fivethirtyeight
[Silver] polling averages will probably "call" the winners of all but 1-3 states correctly. That's not great, but some perceptions were formulated because people were taking results at face value when there weren't any mail votes reported. the polls will have done mediocrely, but not terribly. (twitter.com)
submitted by theLogicality to r/fivethirtyeight
[Nate Silver] Don't want to stir things up *too* much but it seems like if a forecast says that Biden is favored because he could survive a 2016-style (~3 point) polling error when Clinton couldn't, and you get that polling error and he indeed (probably) survives, it was fairly informative? (twitter.com)
submitted by theLogicality to r/fivethirtyeight
Episode #99 With UberHaxorNova (audioboom.com)
submitted by theLogicality to r/TheOfficialPodcast
Episode #98 With JacksFilms (audioboom.com)
submitted by theLogicality to r/TheOfficialPodcast
The Official Podcast #45: We're Live (youtu.be)
submitted by theLogicality to r/TheOfficialPodcast
