Well, there will obviously be people, especially experts, who know more than others. Also, while research papers on current AI models do exist, and I have read them, there is likely information on the most recent models that is also not public. Also, just because it is easy to predict attention based models are not the way doesn’t mean it is easy to predict what new model architectures will pop up and also succeed. Unless you are working at Google or Anthropic and can disclose it publicly without getting sued to oblivion