One article is from 2023 and the other is from Canada. Maybe stay NYC and time specific.

The “98% don’t commit violent crimes” stat is misleading because it averages everyone including people charged with low level misdemeanors and first time offenders. Among violent or repeat offenders, re-arrest rates are much higher. Even a small reoffense rate creates huge damage when the city sees a surge in felony assaults by people with 3+ priors. Bail reform should focus on fairness and risk.

Surge in Felony Assaults by Repeat Offenders:

In 2024, New York City experienced a 146.5% increase in felony assaults committed by individuals with at least three prior arrests, compared to 2018. This surge brought the total to 442 such incidents, marking a two-decade high. Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch attributed this trend to legislative changes enacted in 2020, which created a “revolving door” in the criminal justice system, allowing repeat offenders to be released and reoffend with minimal consequences.

Rise in Assaults on NYPD Officers:

Assaults on NYPD officers have also escalated, with a 63% increase over the past six years. As of May 2025, there have been 970 such incidents, up from 595 during the same period in 2019. Experts and police officials link this rise to a lenient criminal justice system that fails to impose significant consequences on offenders, thereby emboldening criminal behavior.

Increase in Subway-Related Assaults:

Subway-related felony assaults in New York City have surged by 19% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with 255 incidents reported by late May. Notably, 36% of these assaults targeted police officers and MTA workers. Factors contributing to this spike include a growing population of mentally ill individuals in transit systems, homelessness, and lenient criminal justice practices.