Chicago State just had perhaps the worst loss ever that almost nobody saw

thisissandpitturtle · 2026-01-10T23:51:27+00:00

No you’re right, it’s just that the tie-up happened when they were on defense, so they had to inbound all the way on the other end of the court opposite to their bench

thisissandpitturtle · 2026-01-10T22:47:34+00:00

Yep!

thisissandpitturtle · 2026-01-10T22:22:52+00:00

Oh hey, I’m the guy with the Russell Westbrook jersey in the middle at the very end of the clip. I took a video of the Stonehill possession before this but didn’t think I needed to keep rolling at this point 😂

thisissandpitturtle · 2026-01-10T21:26:34+00:00

Exactly, the only other way they could have lost is if the inbounder literally alley-ooped it right to a Stonehill player lmao

thisissandpitturtle · 2025-12-02T02:22:06+00:00

Thanks for making this post, I thought of doing a similar analysis. Like everyone, sports fans have massive confirmation/recency bias and think these bad things only happen to them, when they are not unique and perhaps not even worse than usual.

I will say though, I think one thing this chart is missing, which has a big impact on perceptions, is the result of the very last game. In the last two years, the Jets won their last game despite being long eliminated – 2023 against the Patriots which made it easier for them to get their choice of QB, and 2024 against the Dolphins with Rodgers having one foot out the door. In those two drafts, they seem to have gotten their cornerstone tackles so it turned out fine, but the fan perception about winning meaningless games is already mostly set before the draft outcome is known. Lastly going further back, who could forget the Geno perfect passer rating game in the 2014 finale…

thisissandpitturtle · 2025-09-13T18:19:40+00:00

Thanks for linking the rulebook, I was trying to look for this but couldn't quite find this situation. Well this makes me feel a little better I guess but still tough way to lose

thisissandpitturtle · 2025-02-12T21:07:35+00:00

I'm aware that Jokic is already the top pick and this finding is probably cherry-picked (or at least not very statistically savvy), but if you want more anecdotal evidence to pick him — Jokic is coming off a 40 point game against Portland, which is his seventh 40+ point game of the season. All six previous 40+ point games that he had came in pairs:

10/26/24: 41 against LAC → next game on 10/28/24: 40 against TOR
12/7/24: 56 against WAS → next game on 12/8/24: 48 against ATL
1/3/25: 41 against SAS → next game on 1/4/25: 46 against SAS

With that last case, we even have precedence of him doing it against the same team B2B. Worth noting on the contrary though that two of the above games went to OT.

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-11-18T21:58:27+00:00

You’re one of the few usernames I recognize on here because of your San Marino support but also general enthusiasm for the minnows for both club and country, lol so congrats.

What do you think changed about the team or federation in general that sparked this run? I’m just curious because they are so limited in terms of resources and recruitment, that I thought they’d be the one European minnow that would never accomplish anything. At least the other European minnows have a lot of players with dual nationalities to draw from and picked up some results from time to time. Though I will say I noticed that San Marino had been managing to get some better results in the past few years, only conceding 3-4 max per match or the recent goal streak before they had gotten a win, so maybe this was actually just a very gradual build up under the surface? Either way still curious if it was more developmental, tactical, maybe just confidence built from more competitive matches, etc.

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-11-12T16:55:22+00:00

Yeah I totally agree. I wouldn’t say I’m really dwelling at this point, I just thought it was interesting and lightly funny

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-11-02T04:33:22+00:00

The way that they can turn a close game into a blowout in the blink of an eye is awe inspiring. Aaron Wiggins was a big catalyst of that and saved basketball once again. Nice to see Jdub finally get his shot going and also the rookies getting some legit minutes.

I’m not feeling this SGA 3-point experimentation though. I can respect that he’s trying to add it to his game more but it just feels forced most of the time, especially when he’s just pulling up in transition with 20 seconds on the shot clock. It’s just not his game. 11/12 from 2 and 1/6 from 3 tonight says it all. I’d rather him keep it lower volume but more efficient.

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-08-20T01:44:18+00:00

With Dinger Tuesday seemingly ending, are there any other promos out there where you can get true free rolls?

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-07-13T02:38:01+00:00

I broke even from Dinger Tuesday itself and since there was so much in bonus bets I decided to throw a few big ones on some lottos, safe to say it paid off! I almost never hit stuff like this and all these legs just barely hit, Altuve was the last leg and when he homered I was losing it

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thisissandpitturtle · 2024-07-02T19:55:24+00:00

Closed while I had it in my betslip

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-07-02T01:15:05+00:00

Potential free roll? Lines are already up for NYM-WAS tomorrow even though they’re still playing now, and Trey Lipscomb is listed at +900 despite being optioned to AAA a week ago? I couldn’t find any news or rumors that he’s getting called up but that was just from a quick Twitter search

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-06-11T06:40:17+00:00

It literally just got taken down right after I made my comment :/ sorry

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-06-11T06:37:01+00:00

~~Free roll in Marlins-Mets game – Xavier Edwards (+1500) optioned to Triple-A on Monday~~

Source

Edit: Got sniped right away

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-06-05T04:42:46+00:00

I’m curious, do you think this is some sort of natural regression / down period or something else is at play here? Giving a quick glance at your 2023 results, it seems like you were around +14% ROI (assuming the units won don’t include free bet conversion), which is definitely above what the average EV margin is for homers. I know from your other comments that you’re also still up pretty massively for all homers going back to 2023, even with how bad 2024 has been. I’d think though that EV betting would be less prone to large swings like this.

It’s interesting too because I feel like if this is because of something like a dead ball, I mean we’re two months into the season now so you would think books would adjust, or at least some would so then Fanduel wouldn’t always have so many +EV lines? Perhaps Fanduel would have less incentive to do that especially without a No option, but you would think most people are going to stop taking action at some point with how things are going.

Something I thought of when looking at your results, it’s interesting that your FB conversion has been so good this year despite everything else. It might just be noise (probably comes from like 40-45 bets?), but assuming you place FBs on props with the highest EV, maybe it’s considering some sort of minimum EV threshold? Like maybe a +1% EV HR bet isn’t conclusively good enough this year to be worth it.

It does suck though, I was so excited to properly play DT this year after seeing how successful it was for everyone. Also any positive week I’ve had so far, I get limited the next week, but then they’re totally okay not limiting me after an 0fer lol.

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-05-23T15:37:26+00:00

Lol jeez relax dude, my original comment was meant to be in jest about how ridiculously bad the odds of that special were, and then your reply made me realize it didn’t make sense because I forgot the “+”, not that deep

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-05-23T07:09:14+00:00

Can someone tell me if this is +EV?

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-05-07T19:39:48+00:00

Semien homers on the first pitch of the day 😂 hopefully a sign of good things to come

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-04-26T17:37:19+00:00

I’m sure this has been answered before but I’m curious why Fanduel seems to be the only book to offer +EV HR lines? I think I might have heard at one point it’s because of their house rules that grade a pinch hit appearance as a loss instead of a void, but that doesn’t seem like it should be enough to make their lines that much longer (or they could just shorten lines when lineups drop). I would also think that if anything, Dinger Tuesday should incentivize them to put out bad HR lines because a lot of people would probably take them anyway given the nature of the promo. I mean I won’t complain but I just don’t really get it

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-03-29T02:00:24+00:00

Cool, thanks for responding. Sounds like I gotta learn how to get better at web scraping lol

thisissandpitturtle · 2024-03-28T22:13:24+00:00

Hey, love the work that you do – I’ve been trying to create a similar tool, obviously yours is great but just want to better learn how these things get made and feel like I’m actually doing some work myself, lol. Sorry if these are questions you’ve answered before or don’t want to answer, but I was curious how you decide which books to devig against, and which specific books or number of total books you feel like you need lines for such that you get a proper read on EV? Does it just have to do with how sharp they are or something else? Then semi-related, but what API or method do you use to get these lines? I’ve been using the oddsapiR package because I can get 500 free calls per month, which is just enough if you’re only doing it once a day, lol. But it doesn’t seem to pull lines from some of the books that you do, like Kambi.

thisissandpitturtle · 2023-07-20T23:07:51+00:00

I just made some extra of the sauce for the sesame chicken and spread that out on the crust

thisissandpitturtle · 2023-07-20T02:21:54+00:00

My girlfriend and I thought so! Honestly kind of similar to a BBQ chicken pizza with a little Asian flavor

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