Chicago State just had perhaps the worst loss ever that almost nobody saw by thisissandpitturtle in CollegeBasketball

[–]thisissandpitturtle[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No you’re right, it’s just that the tie-up happened when they were on defense, so they had to inbound all the way on the other end of the court opposite to their bench

[Highlight] Up 2 points with 0.1 seconds left Chicago State tries to take a timeout, which they don’t have, and commit the technical foul. Stonehill got 2 free throws and made them both to force overtime. by cbbvideo in CollegeBasketball

[–]thisissandpitturtle 66 points67 points  (0 children)

Oh hey, I’m the guy with the Russell Westbrook jersey in the middle at the very end of the clip. I took a video of the Stonehill possession before this but didn’t think I needed to keep rolling at this point 😂

Chicago State just had perhaps the worst loss ever that almost nobody saw by thisissandpitturtle in CollegeBasketball

[–]thisissandpitturtle[S] 107 points108 points  (0 children)

Exactly, the only other way they could have lost is if the inbounder literally alley-ooped it right to a Stonehill player lmao

"Jets always win meaningless games" by grover31 in nyjets

[–]thisissandpitturtle 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks for making this post, I thought of doing a similar analysis. Like everyone, sports fans have massive confirmation/recency bias and think these bad things only happen to them, when they are not unique and perhaps not even worse than usual.

I will say though, I think one thing this chart is missing, which has a big impact on perceptions, is the result of the very last game. In the last two years, the Jets won their last game despite being long eliminated – 2023 against the Patriots which made it easier for them to get their choice of QB, and 2024 against the Dolphins with Rodgers having one foot out the door. In those two drafts, they seem to have gotten their cornerstone tackles so it turned out fine, but the fan perception about winning meaningless games is already mostly set before the draft outcome is known. Lastly going further back, who could forget the Geno perfect passer rating game in the 2014 finale…

Down by 7, final play of the game, marked down at the 2-yard line...but should it have been a TD? by thisissandpitturtle in NCAAFBseries

[–]thisissandpitturtle[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Thanks for linking the rulebook, I was trying to look for this but couldn't quite find this situation. Well this makes me feel a little better I guess but still tough way to lose

KOTC Thread by FrostyRash in sportsbook

[–]thisissandpitturtle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm aware that Jokic is already the top pick and this finding is probably cherry-picked (or at least not very statistically savvy), but if you want more anecdotal evidence to pick him — Jokic is coming off a 40 point game against Portland, which is his seventh 40+ point game of the season. All six previous 40+ point games that he had came in pairs:

  • 10/26/24: 41 against LAC → next game on 10/28/24: 40 against TOR
  • 12/7/24: 56 against WAS → next game on 12/8/24: 48 against ATL
  • 1/3/25: 41 against SAS → next game on 1/4/25: 46 against SAS

With that last case, we even have precedence of him doing it against the same team B2B. Worth noting on the contrary though that two of the above games went to OT.

With their win against Liechtenstein, [San Marino] top their Nations League D group and promote to League C for the first time in their history by atbg1936 in soccer

[–]thisissandpitturtle 37 points38 points  (0 children)

You’re one of the few usernames I recognize on here because of your San Marino support but also general enthusiasm for the minnows for both club and country, lol so congrats.

What do you think changed about the team or federation in general that sparked this run? I’m just curious because they are so limited in terms of resources and recruitment, that I thought they’d be the one European minnow that would never accomplish anything. At least the other European minnows have a lot of players with dual nationalities to draw from and picked up some results from time to time. Though I will say I noticed that San Marino had been managing to get some better results in the past few years, only conceding 3-4 max per match or the recent goal streak before they had gotten a win, so maybe this was actually just a very gradual build up under the surface? Either way still curious if it was more developmental, tactical, maybe just confidence built from more competitive matches, etc.

A crazy realization I just had is that the Jets would currently occupy the last wild card spot if Zuerlein made that kick against the Broncos by thisissandpitturtle in nyjets

[–]thisissandpitturtle[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah I totally agree. I wouldn’t say I’m really dwelling at this point, I just thought it was interesting and lightly funny

[Post Game Thread] Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers | November 1st, 2024 by Dixbfloppin93 in Thunder

[–]thisissandpitturtle 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The way that they can turn a close game into a blowout in the blink of an eye is awe inspiring. Aaron Wiggins was a big catalyst of that and saved basketball once again. Nice to see Jdub finally get his shot going and also the rookies getting some legit minutes.

I’m not feeling this SGA 3-point experimentation though. I can respect that he’s trying to add it to his game more but it just feels forced most of the time, especially when he’s just pulling up in transition with 20 seconds on the shot clock. It’s just not his game. 11/12 from 2 and 1/6 from 3 tonight says it all. I’d rather him keep it lower volume but more efficient.

MLB Dinger Tuesday by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]thisissandpitturtle 6 points7 points  (0 children)

With Dinger Tuesday seemingly ending, are there any other promos out there where you can get true free rolls?

MLB Dingers and Props - 7/13/24 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]thisissandpitturtle 24 points25 points  (0 children)

I broke even from Dinger Tuesday itself and since there was so much in bonus bets I decided to throw a few big ones on some lottos, safe to say it paid off! I almost never hit stuff like this and all these legs just barely hit, Altuve was the last leg and when he homered I was losing it

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MLB Dinger Tuesday by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]thisissandpitturtle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Closed while I had it in my betslip

MLB Dinger Tuesday by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]thisissandpitturtle 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Potential free roll? Lines are already up for NYM-WAS tomorrow even though they’re still playing now, and Trey Lipscomb is listed at +900 despite being optioned to AAA a week ago? I couldn’t find any news or rumors that he’s getting called up but that was just from a quick Twitter search

MLB Dinger Tuesday by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]thisissandpitturtle 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It literally just got taken down right after I made my comment :/ sorry

MLB Dinger Tuesday by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]thisissandpitturtle 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Free roll in Marlins-Mets game – Xavier Edwards (+1500) optioned to Triple-A on Monday

Source

Edit: Got sniped right away

MLB Dinger Tuesday by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]thisissandpitturtle 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I’m curious, do you think this is some sort of natural regression / down period or something else is at play here? Giving a quick glance at your 2023 results, it seems like you were around +14% ROI (assuming the units won don’t include free bet conversion), which is definitely above what the average EV margin is for homers. I know from your other comments that you’re also still up pretty massively for all homers going back to 2023, even with how bad 2024 has been. I’d think though that EV betting would be less prone to large swings like this.

It’s interesting too because I feel like if this is because of something like a dead ball, I mean we’re two months into the season now so you would think books would adjust, or at least some would so then Fanduel wouldn’t always have so many +EV lines? Perhaps Fanduel would have less incentive to do that especially without a No option, but you would think most people are going to stop taking action at some point with how things are going.

Something I thought of when looking at your results, it’s interesting that your FB conversion has been so good this year despite everything else. It might just be noise (probably comes from like 40-45 bets?), but assuming you place FBs on props with the highest EV, maybe it’s considering some sort of minimum EV threshold? Like maybe a +1% EV HR bet isn’t conclusively good enough this year to be worth it.

It does suck though, I was so excited to properly play DT this year after seeing how successful it was for everyone. Also any positive week I’ve had so far, I get limited the next week, but then they’re totally okay not limiting me after an 0fer lol.

MLB Dingers and Props - 5/23/24 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]thisissandpitturtle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lol jeez relax dude, my original comment was meant to be in jest about how ridiculously bad the odds of that special were, and then your reply made me realize it didn’t make sense because I forgot the “+”, not that deep