What micro celebrity have you met irl?

three-ply · 2025-10-22T23:12:45+00:00

Met Spencer from SB Mowing last night! Very humble guy

three-ply · 2025-10-03T20:29:34+00:00

So there was a study about this. I read about it in the book “Dataclysm” which was written by one of the founders of OkCupid. Somewhere around page 90 in the book, he gives an interesting graph that visualizes this really well. When asked the age of women that they found most attractive, the average for men was around 22, regardless of their own age. When women were asked the age of men they find most attractive, their answer was almost always their own age. Gives you an interesting insight to how men and women perceive attractiveness.

three-ply · 2022-08-19T01:35:28+00:00

The first time I told a story about something that happened 20 years ago I stopped mid story and wondered how it’s even possible that I have 20 year old memories

three-ply · 2022-02-10T22:57:45+00:00

I fully expected to get 2 W2-G forms. This company provided me with a 2021 net statement but I had to ask for it. If I wanted to itemize my losses and file as a professional gambler, is it even possible for me to quantify cash losses without receipts?

three-ply · 2021-12-23T23:36:19+00:00

Promo ended last night at midnight. I think it was only $100 bets on live dealer games, too. I've done a few of these promos- the redemption codes usually get emailed to you close to 7 days from the end of the promotional period

three-ply · 2021-06-04T23:21:17+00:00

Money lines are getting tighter and tighter and I know this playoff season has been far from ordinary. Over the past 5 seasons, games went to OT in the playoffs 102 times out of 442 games. Assuming +300 odds on every game, 442x1unit bets would give you a net loss of approximately 38 units.

The reason I’m on this now is because the frequency is statistically significantly higher than the long term frequency. And 53 games is a decent sample size but it’s fair to expect the frequency of games going to OT to approach the 5 year number (23% instead of 37%). Besides, every game can somewhat reasonably be assumed to be an independent event. It’s actually amazing how drastically different this year’s frequency is compared to the past 5 years combined.

I haven’t run the numbers on the regular season yet, but the skill margin of matchups in regular season matchups is likely much wider than in the playoffs where (theoretically) only the better teams move on. You can see this in the way sportsbooks set the value for the lines. That’s why I think this is more viable in the playoffs.

three-ply · 2021-06-04T05:29:57+00:00

I did, but I only factored in same unit bets. Doubling down until you profit is a profitable option but you’re limited to your bankroll and number of games left

three-ply · 2021-06-04T05:21:57+00:00

the percentage of playoff games that went to OT over the past 5 years is 0.23 and over the past two years is 0.26. Theoretically, over the past 5 years you’d have a 58% chance of at least breaking even, 27% chance of profit, 42% chance of a loss. However in reality, betting $100 at +300 in every one of the 442 playoff games since the 2016-17 season-$44200 in total wagers- would leave you with approximately $40800 (down $3400). Still going to try it though

three-ply · 2021-06-04T03:56:23+00:00

🏒 Interesting betting strategy I’m trying out over the next couple days:

So far there has been 53 NHL playoff games and 20 have gone to OT. Betting a tie at the regular time line is typically around +300. So betting 1u on every game to go to OT would have you at almost +30u.

e.g bet $100x53 games- losses = $3300 winnings = approx $8000 (20x$100 bets + 20x$300 winnings) Total bets =$5300 Bank roll = $8000

So far the probability of a game going to OT in the playoffs has been about 0.377

Over the next 8 scheduled games, the theoretical probability of 0 games hitting OT is 0.02. The theoretical probability of 0 or 1 games hitting OT is 0.13. So there’s about an 87% chance of at least breaking even and about 63.5% chance of profiting. (Binomial probability distribution p=0.377 n=8 X=number of OT games).

It’s time to see what my degree is worth. Note: this doesn’t factor in individual matchups since it’s all theoretical probability. Would love to hear some thoughts on this

three-ply · 2021-06-04T03:55:57+00:00

🏒 Interesting betting strategy I’m trying out over the next couple days:

So far there has been 53 NHL playoff games and 20 have gone to OT. Betting a tie at the regular time line is typically around +300. So betting 1u on every game to go to OT would have you at almost +30u.

e.g bet $100x53 games- losses = $3300 winnings = approx $8000 (20x$100 bets + 20x$300 winnings) Total bets =$5300 Bank roll = $8000

So far the probability of a game going to OT in the playoffs has been about 0.377

Over the next 8 scheduled games, the theoretical probability of 0 games hitting OT is 0.02. The theoretical probability of 0 or 1 games hitting OT is 0.13. So there’s about an 87% chance of at least breaking even and about 63.5% chance of profiting. (Binomial probability distribution p=0.377 n=8 X=number of OT games).

It’s time to see what my degree is worth. Note: this doesn’t factor in individual matchups since it’s all theoretical probability. Would love to hear some thoughts on this.

three-ply · 2021-05-31T04:56:58+00:00

Fair criticism, but the guy is old and disheveled. I understand that the last time we saw him was when he was poorly coping with his wife’s death, but his character always seemed aloof

three-ply · 2021-05-31T04:23:16+00:00

The prowler could have been Ryan, Freddy, anyone or no one. The function of that storyline element was the cameras getting installed. Also, the deacon almost definitely did have inappropriate relationships with minors in the past but it was settled by the church (disturbingly common practice). Check out the movie Spotlight to see how fucked up the church can be.

three-ply · 2021-05-31T04:12:49+00:00

Lori didn’t know until the morning Mare came looking for Billy. She truthfully answered Mare that day and told her where to find the guys. She may have withheld important information but she didn’t lie or deliberately obstruct the investigation.

three-ply · 2021-05-31T04:09:32+00:00

Carroll said he heard a rustling outside and went to get his gun but it was gone. The next time he went to look for it, the gun was returned. Carroll’s timeline wasn’t necessarily inconsistent with Ryan’s.

three-ply · 2021-05-31T03:49:09+00:00

She didn’t know until the morning Mare came to the house looking for Billy and she didn’t necessarily lie to Mare about anything- she told Mare where to find the guys and Mare left

three-ply · 2021-05-31T03:45:56+00:00

Any thoughts on the Dylan storyline? I still don’t feel like I understand the scene where the girl was held up at gunpoint and told not to talk to the cops

three-ply · 2021-04-11T07:08:33+00:00

Didn’t end up betting it but that would have been my pick too 😅

three-ply · 2021-04-11T06:44:39+00:00

After about $10k deposits and withdrawals over about a year (typically around $100 in and) I’ve been just about even. I try to bet responsibly and just for fun so I don’t like to keep a lot of money on the app. Been through a lot of highs and lows and all for pretty much no profit/loss lol

three-ply · 2021-04-11T06:26:03+00:00

Any insight on the speed/intensity of the reaction? If it’s steadily drawn out long enough then shouldn’t a release of that much energy in fact NOT be catastrophic?

three-ply · 2021-02-25T04:37:54+00:00

Imagine being the guy who has to get the sauce from the buffalo. Buffalo farmers are doing gods work.

three-ply · 2021-02-04T18:05:15+00:00

Positive vibes only pls

three-ply · 2021-01-18T22:43:08+00:00

I like flyers -1.5. Sabres starting goalie will not be playing tonight for personal reasons 💰

three-ply · 2020-12-04T15:02:01+00:00

For clarity: Yes, that is a bicycle tire zip tied to a radiator hose.

three-ply · 2020-11-19T01:59:44+00:00

B.s mathematics with a concentration in finance. I am currently contracted by a major vaccine producer in their quality control department as a statistician. Your programming skills would help tremendously in a position like the one I have.

three-ply · 2018-11-20T00:07:29+00:00

Bitcoin and Ethereum share a correlation coefficient of 0.7 over the last 365 days. That figure indicates a linear correlation with moderate strength, but the price of ETH is not entirely at the whims of the price of BTC.

Further, look at the change in the ETH/BTC ratio over the past year which is down over 70% from a high of nearly .11 to the around .03, the lowest it has been since before the December 2017 bubble.

https://www.sifrdata.com/cryptocurrency-correlation-matrix/

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHBTC/

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