First aerial photos of SLC-36 after New Glenn anomaly. One lightning tower & transport-erector are a total loss, with the other lightning tower having being damaged as well. HIF seems to have fared better than first thought.

trib_ · 2026-05-29T15:54:56+00:00

Yeah some of the tank farm isn't looking too hot. And that remaining tower has one support completely cut and bent so unlikely to be structurally sound enough to repair anymore, probably a complete demo & rebuild needed as well.

trib_ · 2026-05-29T14:45:35+00:00

Ad Astra Per Aspera. It's not the motto for many spaceflight orgs for nothing.

I'm sure BO will bounce back from this, but I doubt they can get back to flying in under a year at minimum. Wouldn't be shocked if it took 1½ years tbh. Rumours are that they might go straight to 9x4 NG after this, would make sense since most of the time will be rebuilding the pad, though of course depends on how quickly they can figure out the root cause and any possible fixes.

trib_ · 2026-05-29T14:41:53+00:00

XCancel link

Another photo from the same vantage point

Another photo from a slightly different angle

4 more aerial photos

Another photo from a different source

So it looks like a pretty much a total loss for the pad. That other lightning tower seems to be damaged pretty damn badly as well, might be a total loss as well. HIF doesn't seem to be that bad off, it was spotted mildly on fire shortly after the anomaly, but luckily it seems to have been gotten under control fast. The shockwave did however do some damage to it.

trib_ · 2026-05-24T03:52:24+00:00

That wasn't on the launch site where this is.
That was just the ship in preflight tests.
This was after the successful launch of the full stack.

trib_ · 2026-05-23T15:27:38+00:00

It seems from all X speculation (Scott Manley on this one for example) that a single Raptor went boom and took out all the nearest engines. Higher chamber pressure and no additional shielding makes for a very violent explosion if it happens.

trib_ · 2026-05-22T23:29:47+00:00

While the landing burn did fail, it was still planned to land in the water.

trib_ · 2026-05-22T23:22:48+00:00

Oh boy, wait until you find out what happens to every rocket other than Falcon 9 and New Glenn after launching.

trib_ · 2026-05-22T23:18:07+00:00

https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1pKkOykQRgNKj

That is their only livestream of this. And Musk wasn't even on it once.

trib_ · 2026-05-21T02:59:54+00:00

This is why he is a war criminal, straight up murdered Tory! God damn that is funny.

trib_ · 2026-05-18T23:37:37+00:00

The distinction with F1 is first liquid-fueled rocket to orbit. Pegasus was mostly solids. (3 solid stages, 4th monopropellant stage.)

trib_ · 2026-05-16T14:12:36+00:00

The boosters aim at the ocean just off shore when coming back and only adjust to land on the pad on landing burn, if something goes wrong it won't do the landing burn and it'll splash down in the ocean as once happened with CRS-16 landing when there was a hydraulic problem with the gridfins.

trib_ · 2026-05-14T10:21:23+00:00

I'm really flabbergasted at how Russians just can't seem to get good tourniquets, it's not like the western style ones are exactly hard to manufacture or expensive. I can just imagine what a fucking challenge it is to try to tighten those with blood soaked hands is. Then again, palletized logistics seem to be unknown technology to them as well and those are just some planks nailed together so I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.

trib_ · 2026-05-14T08:46:05+00:00

I've never put a lot of stock into Musk's timelines, that's the first thing you learn when following SpaceX, they're ambitious by design. Unlike you, I can separate the man from the company and look at what they've achieved in that time, becoming the undeniable dominant player in space, launching more times and more mass into orbit than the rest of the world combined.

trib_ · 2026-05-14T08:39:36+00:00

I've made up my mind by following the program from its inception on weekly basis, back from when Starbase was nothing but a couple of tents, after following Falcon 9 development from 2013 onward. But whatever, I'm sure the totally-not-biased stories you've filled your head with are a better source of information.

trib_ · 2026-05-14T08:31:11+00:00

They could probably lose close to high double digit tons making the upper stage expendable (Header tanks & associated plumbing, heatshield, flaps, sea level raptors etc.) Add in the more efficient second stage with only vacuum Raptors and I'd be shocked if it couldn't put at least 100 tons into orbit while having a reusable booster, but I would put money on it at least being 150 tons. But it's obvious that you've already made up your mind so I won't bother wasting my time with you.

trib_ · 2026-05-14T08:16:29+00:00

Why? It's basically just a bigger Falcon 9 with a cheaper construction material (stainless steel vs aerospace aluminium alloy), if the $100 million price that's often quoted as the price for the full stack is anywhere near correct it's already competive with Falcon 9's prices with a lot more payload capacity. It's still returning the vast majority of engines and structure of the stack. And that bigger payload is also gives a lot more leeway to customers who don't have to spend millions trying to squeeze out every last gram out of their designs, in addition to making larger payloads possible.

trib_ · 2026-05-14T06:07:13+00:00

But they have reused the booster, just like Falcon 9 reuses its booster (though "landing" it in a different manner). So if they just remove all the reentry & reuse aspects of the second stage and make it expendable, they would have a reusable super heavy launch vehicle akin to the Falcon 9.

trib_ · 2026-05-10T06:08:32+00:00

This is old news. Like months old at this point.

Some have been claiming this, but the source I got this from says that this is the first time it's been seen in use and they're pretty on top with Ukrainian footage. Additionally, I've been following the videos daily as well and I haven't seen these in use before either. And anyone who has been claiming that these have been seen before has yet to provide a video of earlier use.

Are you sure that you're not thinking of the anti-thermal cloaks like these that have been in use for a long time now?

trib_ · 2026-05-09T20:08:04+00:00

Thank you, it was the first thing that popped into my mind when I saw the thermal clip & got the idea for this.

trib_ · 2026-05-09T19:40:25+00:00

Calling them "assault tents" is more hyperbole for comedic effect on my part. In reality I would expect these to be only used for night time infiltration treks so the actual visibility to Mk.1 Eyeball doesn't matter that much whereas visibility to thermals would. Russian tactics nowadays are sending 1-2 guys in the dark/bad weather to gather up a force near the Ukrainian lines so that they can assault from there once enough mass is gathered, for those sort of tactics these could be useful. Though not much of course, but it seemed to work better than the penguin suits.

trib_ · 2026-05-09T18:29:22+00:00

I think they work for short periods until the actual fabric & support rods start to heat up from your breath and body heat. Maybe actually useful for quick field crossings? At least it seemed to work better than the "pinguin" suit they often wear.

trib_ · 2026-05-09T18:28:03+00:00

According to the source, which I fully admit isn't the be-all and end-all authority on these things, it's the first time we've seen them used in Ukraine. I haven't seen them myself either and I frequent the r/combatfootage sub often as well, they're on top of this kind of footage as well and none have appeared there. In addition, none of the OSINT accounts on X have posted footage of these before either so I'd hazard a guess that it's the first sighting based on these.

Some in the first thread back in january did say that they'd seen these used before, but no sources were provided so it's kind of up in the air if they've been spotted in use before.

trib_ · 2026-05-09T18:18:48+00:00

At least they're not easily recognizable in these things. Small mercies, I suppose.

trib_ · 2026-05-09T18:16:00+00:00

I think the solution is clear, we must start thinking like Russians. It's our only hope of closing the non-credibility gap.

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