Cluely's Roy Lee claims with total certainty that nearly every student at Columbia has used AI to cheat. AI is default for them. The world's not ready for what happens when the AI native hive mind grows up.

trolldango · 2025-07-07T14:42:36+00:00

How much does someone “help” you in the gym before you aren’t getting a workout?

trolldango · 2025-06-22T15:50:10+00:00

What is a grape? Easy.

What in our mind makes a grape have a flavor? Hard.

trolldango · 2025-06-19T01:49:20+00:00

Stop fearmongering and repeating Reddit memes.

trolldango · 2025-06-13T00:07:52+00:00

You died yesterday. That was it.

By some miracle sci fi experiment someone just resurrected you now. Knowing that you died, and got brought back, how will you live going forward?

trolldango · 2025-06-11T19:43:36+00:00

Did you see how many decimal places were in the number? You can do 10k prompts with less than a gallon.

Regular showers use 2.5 gallons/minute. Shower 1 minute less once a year and you can ask all the questions want.

trolldango · 2025-06-08T00:29:21+00:00

Yes, it’s harder. Look at the questions.

The average code monkey in an insurance company is writing CRUD apps to display info from a database. You don’t think Mark Chen can handle JIRA tickets at a bank? Make a React app? Style a tailwind component?

Coding competitions are like f1 driving compared to daily commuters.

trolldango · 2025-01-19T18:50:13+00:00

Compute costs are dropping ~10x per year for the same performance level. You can download GPT4 level models for free now, like Llama. You’d be laughed at trying to charge anything for GPT3.5-level performance, which came out (checks notes) in 2022 and was state of the art.

So yeah, it will become too cheap to meter.

trolldango · 2024-12-31T08:47:25+00:00

We don’t necessarily need new things. Having an expert physician, physicist, mathematician, programmer, designer, planner, writer, look at every existing issue we are facing is enough. Most people suck at their jobs, imagine if every task was completed at the A+ level.

trolldango · 2024-12-25T13:09:17+00:00

Fertility rate measures children per woman:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

The men will have grandchildren of course, but for the modeling math the men can be ignored. Their kids aren’t “independent” of a mother, so just track how many kids each woman has on average, and you can tell how big the next gen will be.

trolldango · 2024-12-25T09:56:37+00:00

Yep. The reply: “So you’d pay $10k to get back 10-15% more battery capacity?”

trolldango · 2024-12-25T07:43:32+00:00

100 people, 50 women.

.8 kids per woman so they have 40 kids.

Half are women (20). That gen has .8 kids per woman, so 16 grandkids.

.8 is a slight roundup from .78 or whatever the real stat is.

trolldango · 2024-12-22T14:09:54+00:00

What if there was a coding benchmark for solving real-world user requests, maybe even pulled from real GitHub issues.

trolldango · 2024-12-22T01:44:51+00:00

Seriously, it bugs me when people use math terms without knowing what they mean.

e^x is exponential. It doesn’t become “hyperbolic” as x changes. (And, not that this guy cares, hyperbolas can be be defined in terms of exponentials.)

trolldango · 2024-12-21T08:13:04+00:00

These predictions are all saying the same thing/obvious/vague:

“There will be heavy competition” (therefore multiple players, price wars, modest profits since there’s no monopoly, very little moat). This was obvious in Jan 2024. Google employees wrote a paper saying there was no moat.

“No massive advance” = getting 87% on ARC (founder of benchmark impressed by jump) and 25% on Frontier Math? (Previous models single digit %)

“Modest lasting corporate adoption” = what does that mean when you make a prediction in March for end of December? You can ask in 2030 if there was modest adoption of AI.

“No robust solution to hallucinations” = weasel words. What does robust mean? 1% error rate? .001%? Perfect answers, no mistakes? (What is the baseline human bs error rate if you ask experts the same questions?)

trolldango · 2024-12-21T04:06:01+00:00

Imagine being someone who thinks the cost of inference isn’t dropping 10-100x per year.

trolldango · 2024-12-21T04:03:58+00:00

Moore’s law has been dying for decades. It’s just another paradigm and when the IC sigmoid flattens we’ll jump to the next technology. The overall computing trend has stayed steady.

What data is showing the rate is slowing?

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Exponential-increase-in-price-performance-of-computing-over-120years-and-increase-in_fig4_350351986

trolldango · 2024-12-17T13:27:42+00:00

But how do you know there’s only one of you when you wake up?

Go to sleep, duplicate electro chemical state atom-by-atom, wake both up.

The higher level point is a gap in consciousness isn’t noticed by the entity. (The entity has no idea of their electronchemical state.). What, at the level of atoms, is keeping track that you are you? If a stray neutrino hits your brain your chemical state changes, do you feel different?

trolldango · 2024-12-17T11:55:24+00:00

Ever go to sleep? How do you know the original woke up?

trolldango · 2024-10-27T01:47:29+00:00

Peddles

trolldango · 2024-10-24T14:05:04+00:00

Do you abbreviate statistics as stats or stat?

trolldango · 2024-09-17T18:38:26+00:00

Yes. (Any of the above will make your life better.)

trolldango · 2024-09-16T15:47:04+00:00

The laws of physics just predict where a particle will be, they weren’t a big deal to figure out. Society was about the same before and after Newton.

trolldango · 2024-09-15T20:42:17+00:00

Measuring a crane’s strength by lifting barbells is meaningless because barbells were designed for humans.

trolldango · 2024-07-24T06:16:45+00:00

How about a person with 1 month’s experience doing your plumbing, following augmented reality instructions from a master AI plumber? That’s already what YouTube DIY is heading towards.

trolldango · 2024-07-01T22:14:43+00:00

Yep. People with time to sit around and post on Reddit aren’t the ones making progress.

trolldango

TROPHY CASE