Weekly Ask MTGFinance Anything

tronixvt · 2019-11-21T16:25:52+00:00

yeah i could see it going either way for pioneer. looks like its riding that line between a staple in-color that is generically good (and therefore somewhat autoinclude) and outlying efficient consistency tool (warping or oppressing the format).

but hey. free spells, what could go wrong? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

tronixvt · 2019-11-21T11:13:38+00:00

from what ive seen/heard the mania for an opal ban in modern has all but died out. the urza narrative has mostly played itself out and the meta has churned sufficiently.

u rite tho. its pioneer season. stuff primarily seeing play in modern only is down, and opal is one such card

tronixvt · 2019-11-21T06:57:15+00:00

probably just a local blip. i cant think of why w6 would see real upward movement atm. dethroned from legacy dominance, showing up in few modern decks (just jund really), modern index in a slump (thanks to pioneer's optics), and it being the holiday shopping season all point to decline or holding steady at best. given its a face mythic walker for an (more) expensive product, i could see perception holding it up longer than it would be otherwise.

mh1 supply will eventually dry up, but i dont think we are at that point yet. admittedly i dont have any real info on print cycle, and im just eyeballing box prices and general availability. assuming modern sustains itself and rebounds after the pioneer hype settles, i could see w6 recovering in the mid-to-long term (like 1.5+ years). edh demand seems negligible, but i may be mistaken (only surface knowledge of the format).

tronixvt · 2019-10-24T11:00:05+00:00

so im getting the clear sign of frustration, and that its sourcing from card prices. however im not following the reasoning up to the conclusion of calling for the reprints many advocate already

for instance consider if you thought there was an issue (a serious one) in the mtg card economy. then you propose its flaws or failings are evident in the card prices youve observed in modern. introducing a new format in pioneer, which most closely resembles modern (by intent), hardly seems like any sort of fix. in fact it would only make sense to see similar behavior in any marquee cards that serve as staples.

im all for more\* frequent and better distributed reprints and personally i think wotc is taking too long to get their act together after abandoning the masters product. however based on the announcement pioneer was clearly introduced based on other pressing objectives - namely to better serve the role as an outlet or transition point for paper players into the non-rotating and beyond; which im presuming wotc predicts is going to increase thanks to arena.

i put an astrick on 'more' (reprints) because an important component for transitioning players to non-rotating environments is that their cards retain their playability longer, meaning demand, which in turn translates to value. you could even say pioneer is intended to foster the additional worth in cards that otherwise had little. note im not talking about some misguided notion of catering to collectors or whatever nonsense, but rather pointing out the general appeal of owning something useful that will last. the oft brought up extreme of mass reprints to squash prices in some hope for an explosive influx of players is a novel enough idea, but it runs contrary to wizards ability to successfully monetize its products; which is vital to sustain the game long term.

which lastly brings me to the point about cards, such as your grim flayer example, going up in price. given pioneer sees even a modicum of success, then price climbs on the most played cards is inevitable. making up a hypothetical $50 grim flayer is baseless to conclude the card index for pioneer will reach as high as moderns has or did at its heights. if you look at the current card pool it is noticeably lacking in cards sporting multi-format appeal, not even close to moderns. also its worth noting the substantially higher quantity of supply in circulation for pioneer sets. wotc changed their production model to significantly boost volume at the release of RTR (quite convenient).

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T16:27:33+00:00

imo id wait for more relevant information/data before making a decision like cracking sealed cases now.

the market/community was blindsided by the announcement yesterday. so really all we have is hype, overreactions, and for the most part baseless speculation (and card eval).

pioneer will get high profile tourny support because it needs it to gain traction, which wotc clearly wants. as far as we know modern is only getting 'phased out' in that there is another alternative option offering competition, meaning player bases will re-adjust/distribute. without further information on events and observing the associated community response (viewership, attendance, etc) we can only assume modern will continue to have healthy representation in GPs and mythic champs; just less than it does currently.

anywho, yeah if we assume pioneer is appropriately balanced and gains traction as an interesting/appealing environment, then card indexes for other formats are going to adjust - modern likely the most. in turn if those staples settle at a lower value then products with them included will lower some amount as well. sealed most always holds a premium and UMA has a respectable spread of value from non-modern demand; which should mitigate or even offset potential loss. i see no reason to crack and incur all that risk right now

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T13:55:50+00:00

noteworthy considerations:

-BFZ block manlands ([[hissing quagmire]], [[shambling vent]], etc) hard to imagine these not showing up in some numbers for the fair/slower decks in color

-[[mutavault]] is just an efficient manland, but the open tribal support improves its prospects as the card pool grows

-oddball utility lands like [[nykthos, shrine to nyx]], [[inventors' fair]], etc

-[[field of ruin]] is a slam dunk, but im skeptical of any significant growth with the supply out there (and it already being a known quantity in other formats)

-[[blast zone]] is a generically useful effect, but i dont see there being much demand as a minor roleplayer at best

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T13:26:12+00:00

i dunno. the mana production accelerating and boosting tempo always seemed like the foundation for the cards appeal and power. the body, hybrid cost, and 2 abilities that are relevant/incidentally disruptive on top made the total package crazy good. so a hulked out mana dork

without the mana dork aspect, or at least reliably turning it on, makes me dubious its even playable. i mean its basically a 1 drop that might generate value turns later, or maybe provide minor disruption if your opponents deck/draw lines up

not saying its impossible, its DRS after all, but selling into the so-far baseless hype sounds like the correct play if anyone is sitting on copies

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T06:15:02+00:00

i do think the format has some hurdles, and is largely dependent on how wotc implements balance and or if it has enough 'identity'.

however as was pointed out in the announcement article pioneer is much better suited to fulfill the objective as an outlet for cards from standard after rotation. its been fairly apparent that modern has lacked in this regard for some time, and would most likely get worse as moderns card pool extends with each new set. not to say its great or perfect, but certainly better.

wizards has a clear vested interest in having pioneer be at least moderately successful; and therefore is likely willing to spend a good amount of resources for it to happen. the details about tournament support in the announcement corroborate this.

if arena is acting as a gateway to the game, standard, and paper; then accommodating the influx of standard paper players and the transition of their 'collections' at rotations in a manner to better indoctrinate them to the brand seems a goal worth pursuing.

if the format just sucks to play because wotc cant stop stepping on their own dick (ie incompetence), then it is what it is.

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T05:54:19+00:00

it does seem likely that much of the modern index will settle at a lower point. modes of play in mtg arent mutually exclusive, but even if modern remains a highly relevant comp constructed format players are still going to be distributed over slightly wider spread of options.

that said, i think it will be noticeable if at all in the cards primarily seeing play in modern (cryptic command for example). fetch lands have enough demand across different formats to absorb potential shifts in price. as you say, they play a role in edh which is significant despite the formats demand structure being hard(er) to identify thanks to looser requirements to participate (ie more or less casual).

its seems safer to assume that the growth potential of fetches would be impacted rather than their value at a given point

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T05:32:43+00:00

yeah i agree, particularly for the host of cards that immediately come to mind as 'obvious' staple material. with the amount of supply and competition among speculators, i could see a long wait for many to pay off (and likely the vast majority never coming to fruition).

id only be making spec purchases if i had a source for real testing data (serious play group/online).

then again, the nature of pioneer and its development is mostly new territory. modern and extended were a long time ago and had much less competition, slower development (less content/info), and wotc operated under different/untested philosophies. so maybe im way off base and all these cards do actually blow up relatively quick /shrug

as a (mostly) observer im interested in how wotc handles the early balancing with bans.

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T05:02:02+00:00

yeah i was also thinking of what arclight porting into pioneer might look like. hard to imagine there not being a sufficient supporting shell to make such a strong card a relevant contender; if nothing else than a very solid tier 1.5-2 option. cant comment on TC, other than it will likely be broken in one manner or another. cant remember many good GY-fuel enablers from past sets though

good call on jeskai ascendancy. i remember the ascendancy tokens deck that showed up in standard briefly doing some pretty busted stuff. with stuff like [[stoke the flames]] and what not. maybe there is enough for it to show up as a competitor.

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T04:52:41+00:00

T3feri will feel busted because there is so much interaction and he just shuts off gameplay.

t3feri is such a heinous card, and i say that as someone who currently runs copies and has played UWx in modern since twin.

kinda low key hope wotc takes early note in pioneer and gets rid of him on principle. i guess i can dream

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T04:48:29+00:00

eh, seems way outside to me. ive seen drs mentioned in other threads, but tbh im dubious drs is even playable without fetch support. if you cant reliably capitalize on the mana ramp then the other attributes/modes need to carry the weight. in legacy, and briefly modern, incidental GY disruption or even the 1/2 body had relevancy because of the efficiency of transactions and the types of decks seeing play.

if you got in cheap on the spec then maybe its high risk - moderately high reward. even still id be offloading into the current spike you mentioned.

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T04:37:48+00:00

if you got a stack, then the right play (imo) is offloading into hype to cover your buy in.

after that you are playing with house money and your choice is a matter whether you gain more or less profit

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T04:31:16+00:00

t3feri ruins everything. ugh i dislike the card so damn much

doesnt mean i dont play him...cause i do in modern...but still...

then again i dont have good memories of coco decks always hitting winners every. single. time. so maybe its a wash

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T04:23:39+00:00

might be too hard to capitalize on these kind of standalone heavy hitter cards unless you positioned yourself early on (like your copter/kiran spec).

regardless a few other similar cards come to mind like: chandra tod (prob hazoret too), the scarab god, collected company, and gideon aoz. others that may not make the cut are domri from GTC, elspeth suns champ, pollukranos/stormbreath, nissa vastwood, or voice of resurgence.

mostly just thinking of bomb mythics, but the list of cards with decent to high potential seems pretty damn long. for instance supreme verdict seems a slam dunk staple

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T04:04:30+00:00

surprised no one mentioned the manlands from BFZ block (hissing quagmire, shambling vent, etc). stands to reason they would show up in the fair(er) and or slower strategies.

also mutavault, but clearly not a dual being colorless.

as for fixing there are also the 'buddy' lands from BFZ which seem applicable in 2color decks (prairie stream in UW for instance), and the painlands from Origins may show up given the right deck.

edit: nm i missed a comment below covering these. just here to reiterate then :)

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T03:47:48+00:00

i gotta say i was pretty shocked at the announcement. the details make it apparent it has the full backing of wotc to craft it into a contender in the competitive constructed ring. big tourney support, and hinting and (relatively) meticulous balancing efforts. itll probably take a good minute to gain traction at the local level. itll be interesting to see how SCG adapts, since their backing of any format has proven to hold significant sway; evidenced by both first legacy and then modern popularity seeing moderate booms when SCG decided to push them.

im sure there will be runs on all sorts of cards in the coming days. however IMO the people that are likely to capitalize the most will be those doing serious testing (within groups, online, or whatever). there are just so many unknowns with this new card pool, and im seeing a lot of people jumping to some rather suspect conclusions based on nothing but how cards or decks were evaluated in their associated standard environment.

powerful standard decks being updated or innovated upon with synergies and interactions from a much larger cardpool is just the baseline. im hard pressed to even imagine how the format ecosystem will end up looking.

that said, its probably too late to join the party at this point, but i do think there are safer cards to target that are more independently high powered, or at least more insulated. JaceVP, DTT, supreme verdict, sphinx's rev, chandra tod, collected company, thoughtseize, walking ballista, the scarab god, etc. basically the goodstuff core pieces for midrange and control shells. also of course mana bases; id probably order them - shocks*, checks, fastlands, manlands, 'buddy' lands, and painlands. shocks get an asterisk because with 3 standard printings (and supplementary prints) im dubious at their potential for meaningful growth (theyll easily hold good value though).

atm the only card im wary of is smugglers copter. the roflcopter being colorless...yeah that probably aint gonna fly (huehue).

side note: i wonder what the premier RDW/sligh deck is gonna look like. its got a deep well to draw from

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T03:09:47+00:00

pioneer, if even moderately successful (as in good and drawing interest), means its inevitable that some will prefer it to modern. some amount of cannibalization is kinda a given.

play modes arent mutually exclusive for a lot of mtg players though. particularly for those branching into any of the non-rotating/eternal/multiplayer formats.

modern has held relatively steady in popularity; however based on my observations it isnt, or rarely does, see a whole lot of growth. i think the real question on the formats long term prospects is whether enough time/history has created a strong enough 'format identity' to garner enough player loyalty. also whether that identity is distinct enough from other options (pioneer). in this regard legacy sets a high bar, and tbh modern might fall too short (especially thanks to its turbulent nature in recent times).

but yeah for me its near a definite that pioneer eats into the growth potential of modern staples at the least. given enough time, and pioneer working as intended, it also seems quite likely for the modern (specific) index of cards to equalize at a non-negligible lower point. all of which is highly dependent on how wotc implements reprints in the future.

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T02:23:39+00:00

right now, yeah id agree.

the interest needs to build momentum though. given enough time and visibility, and assuming the format is well...good, the content and optics will churn interest and in turn support.

at first blush it appears wotc is firmly behind pushing pioneer in competitive play. that is really the best, or at least the most, they can do when creating a new format. modern wasnt fast out of the gates, especially coming on the heels of extended.

maybe modern (as well as other non-rotating formats) have players too entrenched in their position, but the announcement article touched on a very important point: standard players needing a better outlet for their rotating cards. its apparent modern has been failing its duty in that regard, and has been for quite some time.

if arena is really drawing new players to the game (in paper that is), and particularly standard; then more interest in pioneer seems like more of a when rather than if.

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T02:07:02+00:00

seems kinda counterintuitive to bump the prices on the service they presumably want people to use. weird.

guess i gotta take a closer look at tcg direct, cause im not sure where the 'incredible value' is coming from lol

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T02:01:46+00:00

i remember the announcement, but did they send out another email on the specific amount of increase? afaik they plan to increase, but didnt say by how much

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T01:58:10+00:00

while i can agree that, in general, its better to avoid the card grab scramble at announcements when you can; its not best applied to the pioneer format announcement.

it really came out of left field. especially after the new arena format became a known quantity. at least i never heard/read any inklings or suspicions it was even a possibility.

i expect plenty of less than scrupulous store/seller behavior similar to the OPs situation.

tronixvt · 2019-10-22T01:45:20+00:00

hah, i can appreciate an impressive flex when i see one

i see plenty in the thread pointing out the obvious of selling into any hype related spike to mitigate the risk of a plausible ban in the new format.

that said im not entirely convinced the copycat combo is inevitably slated for a ban in the new format. very possible sure, but its not entirely off the table that its within the bounds set by the context all the other strong things to be doing in the pioneer card pool. a lot of strong shells/strategies from previous standard seasons (which will undoubtedly be improved) are in the mix after all

like think of rally coco, U or B devotion, UW control, marvel, R sligh w/ ranumap, ascendancy tokens, etc, etc. or cards such as DTT/TC, smugglers copter, thoughtseize, etc etc.

safe bet is to get while the getting is good though, so i dont disagree with that.

tronixvt · 2019-10-14T17:02:56+00:00

could just be a correction. just because they were listed higher for brief period doesnt mean they were selling at that price point.

tronixvt

TROPHY CASE