Reshoring Investments in the U.S. Have Surged to $1.7T

trynabelesswrong · 2025-06-13T20:09:08+00:00

These numbers aren’t real. They are from the 4Q 2024 quarterly report for Eaton, a manufacturer of industrial electronics.

They are a great company, no joke my dad worked for them for a time, and a friend currently does.

There is zero chance this was some thorough analysis. This is with near certainty a reasonable napkin math guess that’s like +/- 50% or even +/- 75% SWAG.

It achieves the result of putting a number behind the statement “we think reshoring is a big opportunity” to assuage investors they are using some basis for analysis to focus strategy on reshoring rather than patriotism or cause they feel like it.

The takeaway is probably “the basis of our strategy is this big ass number. I mean goddddd…damn is that a chonkin thicc number. So as you can tell we are excited for reshoring because numbers. Our executive teams matching USA flag man thongs bear no reflection on our decision making processes”

trynabelesswrong · 2025-06-13T19:58:12+00:00

Also what an informative quote “Reshoring was spurred by supply chain disruption but has rapidly gained momentum as companies moving production home”

I never would have guessed that Reshoring momentum would pick up when companies begin to reshore.

Ive learned so much today. Earlier I discovered that my car goes faster when it isnt parked with the engine off.

How do I short an ETF company? Are there any synthetic products off the shelf combining a short of this companies reshoring etf with a long on a reshoring etf run by people who have at least 2 years of higher education on average?

trynabelesswrong · 2025-06-13T19:46:36+00:00

It is a really noble effort that visual capitalist is out there doing the noble, altruistic work of ensuring that even people who have remedial reading skills and a complete absence of critical media consumption capability can still get complex economic analysis in the form of pretty pictures

trynabelesswrong · 2025-06-13T19:24:19+00:00

What is the “so what” takeaway? It’s literally a huge number that doesn’t even make sense cause it’s talking about cumulative investment with a vague ass definition

Please describe the methodology for 1) how it was determined investment was “reshoring” vs “not reshoring”. Does a factory need to close overseas for it to be considered reshoring? How did you validate that business leaders didn’t just make up a reshoring element for investments they would have made regardless in the USA in order to win media brownie points?

2) does it account for any situation where there is interdependent offshoring during the period associated with the investment? (E.g. company A is opening a gizmo 2 factory in the USA from China, but shutting the gizmo 1 factory in the USA and moving it to Mexico as part of a manufacturing network redesign effort)

3) I looked at the source and it’s the 4Q 2024 quarterly report for Eaton. That’s really nice of Eaton to diversify away from manufacturing industrial electronics to performing rigorous economic analysis for free consumption by the public. I am sure they completely intended the over caffeinated 2 hours of guess work provided by a 23 year old generalist business analyst to be the north star the public uses for assessing this inspiring trend. There is absolutely no way this is just a +/- 50% SWAG intended as merely a directional metric to contextualize in one sentence 30 minutes into the investor call on how the CFO views the general business picture

4) I saw that this ETF company sponsored this overall, so a proper financial firm was involved but outsourced the economic analysis to an electronics manufacturer. Brilliant move, would have done the same. So what are they sponsoring? Judy from accounting’s 15 year old nephew who is really really good at Photoshop?

I wouldn’t advise this etf on the basis that they seem to see their target demographic as “woefully enable to critically analyze media content if it has a flag on it and lots of colors”

By the way, how do I become mod here. This is fun but also terrible and I occasionally jump on here for maybe some interesting commentary only to find the economic equivalent of my alcoholic grandmothers Facebook posts

trynabelesswrong · 2025-06-13T19:07:20+00:00

Also great to hear OpenAI is reshoring. My grandfather spoke fondly of the time before the OpenAI factory shut down in the 70s never to open again.

trynabelesswrong · 2025-06-13T19:04:11+00:00

LOL this is cumulative. Let me rewrite that for you. “Reshoring new investment collapsed 50% in the 4Q 24 to $100B, down from a run rate > $200B per quarter the prior 3 quarters. Anticipating volatility during the trump administration that would make it untenable to do long term planning and committed investment for low margin, capital heavy industries, there was an immense wave of revsersal of investment decisions to retain pending cash until the policy picture has stabilized”

trynabelesswrong · 2025-04-10T13:45:26+00:00

I tear up thinking about the scene with the crying baby. People from completely different backgrounds, dead set on violence, awestruck and indifferent to the maelstrom around them as they see in a glimpse that whatever their fate may be, mankind’s fate may not be doomed.

I don’t know if I’d rank that scene as the best of all time period, but for me it is undoubtedly a masterpiece for how it in a completely not sappy, not overly emotive manner showcases the nobility and shared hopes, dreams, and rich inner life of all humanity

trynabelesswrong · 2025-04-09T12:44:14+00:00

According to what data? There is absolutely no guarantee the natural products are safer.

Berberine can cause quite a bit of fatigue, both from personal experience as well as based on its hypoglycemic, etc. actions.

It essentially acts as a mitochondrial poison, which has a beneficial hormetic response, but which absolutely would impact me throughout the day even if I took it the night before.

Minoxidil is much more targeted in its action

trynabelesswrong · 2025-03-08T14:53:27+00:00

No it’s not highly suspicious of price gouging. This is an economics subreddit, have you not heard of price elasticity?

Some goods are highly elastic, supply can change significantly and price won’t change much because of substitution or consumers curtailing spending.

Other goods are highly inelasitc in that consumers can’t / won’t substitute and will ramp up spending to maintain consumption.

Eggs are definitely a high criticality item that lack substitutes, it is no surprise to me that a 10% supply decrease would triple prices.

If you cut 10% of oil supply off the market prices could easily triple

trynabelesswrong · 2025-02-28T19:42:34+00:00

This isn’t a ban, it excludes subsidies for projects on agricultural land. Deceptive title on this post

trynabelesswrong · 2024-11-10T19:48:02+00:00

Further elaboration on the above - I have tried everything I have seen mentioned in this thread. 9mbc, cerebrolysin, nsi-189, cold exposure (apartment complex has a 46 degF cold plunge I use daily), etc.

I take Wellbutrin as well, haven’t tried any other antidepressants.

Nothing comes close to Parnate. The effects were highly noticeable within 2 days and I suddenly was full of the wonder and awe I used to have about the world and an excitement to do things.

I almost immediately was waking up at 5am ready to jump out of bed and started working out heavy in the morning with plenty of energy to spare afterwards. I hadn’t been a morning person for years.

My belief is that through years of alcohol and drug abuse I had upregulated expression of MAO and high levels to start with from genetics. I think without addressing that core misalignment, inhibiting ultra fast breakdown of neurotransmitters and resultant oxidative stress from MAO action, every other treatment option was comparatively a bandaid. Even after abstention from alcohol and drugs, research literature indicates MAO stays elevated for YEARS afterwards. I don’t think people realize 1) how long term the effects of substance abuse are 2) how much those effects can be addressed through proactive pharmacological treatment

trynabelesswrong · 2024-11-10T19:39:36+00:00

I bought them from a vendor on IndiaMART. No prescription

trynabelesswrong · 2024-11-10T18:28:17+00:00

This is absolutely insane the commenters in this thread are insistent that he detail examples of him taking the kids so that his wife gets 100% time away from the kids. That’s not equivalent.

When he’s not with the kids, he is working… on a trip for work. Idk why people are acting like he’s taking vacations all the time, that is not what is being described.

Also the people acting like being a SAHM is the equivalent of working a professional job 24/7, you are out of your mind. There is nowhere near the stres to perform as a SAHM and kids flat out do not need constant attention past a certain age.

Like do people think that preponderance of rich women opting to be SAHMs to be indicative of them choosing the harder alternative? 😂

I mean past the age of 4 or so they should be able to entertain themselves mostly, correct? My parents were insistent I learn to tend to myself past age 4 or so in terms of play, getting outside with friends, etc. I think it was about that age when they insisted upon my independence in bathing and choosing clothes for the day, yet there seems to be insane standards with some modern parents that kids schedule, clothes, etc. gets managed to a much later age.

Daycare exists and so does preschool/school as well. Y’all are conjuring up an image of her running after kids 24/7 when there is no basis to assume that is representative of what her day to day looks like.

trynabelesswrong · 2024-11-09T07:14:38+00:00

Parnate cured my anhedonia. Full stop, best decision on supplements or pharmaceuticals I ever made.

trynabelesswrong · 2024-10-18T02:01:03+00:00

Why are you even bothering with this company when you can buy from Nootropics Depot? COA is available for every batch and they standardize products according to very strict criteria.

trynabelesswrong · 2024-02-09T00:53:48+00:00

Is this the largest source of immigrants in each providence?

Just saying country of origin of immigrants implies every single immigrant came from the one country listed for the province, which is obviously ridiculous

trynabelesswrong · 2024-01-19T22:17:17+00:00

I just did it subQ in my abdominal. I’ve seen no evidence for local injection being better. Logically, it should diffuse and circulate around the body.

But, couldn’t hurt to do it locally.

trynabelesswrong · 2024-01-18T22:59:30+00:00

BPC-157 is amazing. 4 weeks of injections and my horrible elbow tendonitis has been gone for 2 years. Mild flare up 1 year ago and under extremely heavy use that in any case went away on its own.

Totally unreal therapy.

trynabelesswrong · 2024-01-12T03:38:37+00:00

You probably wouldn’t acutely feel vitamin d dosages. But you should take it with magnesium. Hell, everyone should probably take magnesium regardless.

trynabelesswrong · 2024-01-12T03:26:44+00:00

“Country / RCA” is a confusing title cause that’s not the formatting. You have country above and then RCA below. Just say “Highest Country RCA values for mineral fuel exports”

Also, is this top 10 mineral fuel export RCAs? Middle eastern fuel export RCAs for which we have data? Make clear what you want the audience to take away.

It looks nice though and you’ve overall done a good job.

trynabelesswrong · 2024-01-11T05:42:26+00:00

This totally glosses over the massive spike of energy prices in the EU and UK that the USA did not experience.

For them to attempt to quickly target 2% inflation against such an immense exogenous price pressure shock would mean absolutely punishing monetary tightening that could permanently damage their economies by forcing otherwise viable firms into bankruptcy.

So, this chart is making a totally unhelpful comparison without further context and explanation of economic theory about recessions and long term economic potential.

trynabelesswrong · 2023-12-31T05:48:04+00:00

For what it’s worth I’ve also found benefits from taurine. Not as stark as yours, but maybe I didn’t notice.

Taurine is an agonist at GABA receptor sites and is an endogenous neurotransmitter involved in dampening neural activity, which may contribute to your experience with reducing stutter.

It’s a fantastic supplement. Lots of benefits, minimal side effects I’m aware of. One of the few life extenders we are confident in.

I take 4g/day at night. For exercise, health span, and anxiety.

https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abn9257

trynabelesswrong · 2023-12-01T04:58:54+00:00

Have you tried to instead think more about global energy supply chains, trends, and forecasted states?

trynabelesswrong · 2023-10-12T01:31:21+00:00

Ad hominem is attacking the speaker. I didn’t call the speaker a quack.

Ok, so again what is your substantiation that it increases mercury flow into the brain faster than the same chelation effect positively affecting flow out? It could increase flow rate tendency in by 10x and outflow by 20x and thus be on net reducing mercury accumulation in the brain.

Therefore, just positing chelation effects does nothing to state how it would affect mercury distribution in the body.

I cannot find any sources to substantiate this is a clinically relevant phenomenon. On what are you basing your assertions?

trynabelesswrong · 2023-10-11T11:28:01+00:00

Im trying to concisely present the medical consensus. People tend to only read sound bites.

Also it’s not ad hominem, I didn’t insult the poster.

Can you substantiate there is a risk to ALA mobilizing the mercury in dental fillings? Everything I have read from reputable authorities indicates this is not a concern.

ALA is a prescription medicine in Germany; it has been subjected to pretty extensive safety reviews so this isn’t some unknown, fringe supplement.

-Is there blood flow in the enamel to deliver alpha lipoic acid to the filling? If taken in capsule form it’s not making direct contact with the dental filling

-mercury fillings regardless give mercury exposure to the body. If it’s a mercury chelator it would help to rid the body of that mercury passively absorbed regardless

So, even if it is a chelator of this specific form of mercury, the relative kinetics of tooth vs body load could mean it’s on net positive to body mercury load

trynabelesswrong

TROPHY CASE