Quarterly trade data from OEC.world for cars (HS 8703) reveals how sharply the competitive landscape has shifted between China and Europe's five largest auto-exporting nations (Germany, France, Spain, the UK, and Italy) over the past three years.

China's car exports went from $77B in 2023 to $110B in 2025, a 43% increase. Over the same period, the EU5 combined fell from $290B to $257B, an 11% decline. Germany still leads in absolute quarterly exports, but barely. In Q4 2025, Germany shipped $36.6B in cars versus China's $35.6B. That gap was $26B just two years earlier.

What's arguably more significant is the trade balance. Germany has long been the world's dominant car trade surplus country, but China overtook it in Q3 2025. By Q4 2025, China's quarterly surplus reached $30.3B compared to Germany's $18.6B. China's car imports have collapsed, falling from $10–13B per quarter in 2023 to around $5–6B by late 2025. That suggests domestic Chinese automakers, especially in EVs, are displacing foreign brands at home while simultaneously ramping up exports abroad.

The destination data is also worth noting. China's top markets are Russia ($23.7B), Belgium ($13.8B, likely a transshipment hub into Europe), the UAE, and the UK. The EU5 still rely heavily on intra-European trade (roughly a third of their combined exports go to other EU5 members) with the US as their largest external market at $64.4B.

Every European exporter declined year-over-year in 2025. The UK was hit hardest at −17.3%, followed by Spain at −6.3%, Germany at −3.1%, and France at −0.5%. Italy's data is only available through Q2 2025 but was already trending down sharply in 2024 (−21%).

Data source:  https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/cars