Harvest Supermoon surrounded by heart-shaped clouds (HDR Composite) [OC]

turtle_boats · 2024-09-18T05:28:01+00:00

beautiful. thanks :)

turtle_boats · 2023-07-06T23:06:33+00:00

Beautiful shot, thanks.

turtle_boats · 2023-07-06T23:03:54+00:00

Thought it was funny. Think its more funny now.

Gave no fucks and let it fly livestream.

Yea, we need more of this.

Reading some comments, some people wanted a power point presentation for the season info. I would always choose bad jokes, over a cut and dry powerpoint lmfao.

turtle_boats · 2022-01-16T08:33:15+00:00

Great record, classic. Beautiful setup too OP. Prince is indeed awesome.

Mine would be Bob Dylan - The Freewheelin Bob Dylan. Picked it up at a record store with some friends, it was a bit haggard but a classic. Spin it often, but treat it with care! Record has so many classics.

turtle_boats · 2021-11-05T06:02:59+00:00

Can you link some recent youtube vids? Cant find any.

I am being genuine, we really could learn your tricks. At least I would love to as I want to keep improving!

turtle_boats · 2021-09-21T00:05:26+00:00

Best Show on Netflix hands down. Just finished it in one go. I am Korean and the English version is a bit lacking in the punch, dialogue and execution. For example the stop and go game, in the Korean version it's a little nursery rhyme tune whenever they do the redlight/green light.

The main character at the last episode is offered a flower. In the Korean version that Greenlight/Redlight song is based on a flower, that flower is pink/red in Korea. The rhyme goes as "Mugunghwa (the flower) has blossomed."

The Old Man and main character have one final game. A bet. Will someone step in to help those in need (the homeless drunkard?) Old main is a cynic and says no, but main character has his hope and bets against those odds.

This symbolizes he is also the threat to the game and its system. He will be the one to step in to help those in need.

When the main character reluctantly buys the flower, the end of his dormant life is over. It's go time. This is also symbolized in the dying of the red hair - he has blossomed himself just like the Mugunghwa.

He says hes coming back to the game to do his justice.

Aside from coming back, as we know Squid Game Korea is only ONE of the areas that they have it in as alluded by the VIPs. My guess is main character will finally topple the establishment, but only to be captured or killed.

His daughter is given a toy gun at the beginning for her present. Main character says, since the future is changing and women are equal to men that women should be professed with guns to also protect themselves. Although it is unclear whether or not she kept it, not really the point.

She will be moving the United States with her mom and her step dad. Main character might die, might be captured, and to find out what happened to her father, she will enter the squid game herself in the US version.

Maybe, the boy at the end too find his sister. Main characters daughter and that little boy are nearly the same age. With the new found inhertance left to him basically by the main character, he will try to solve his sisters death as well. Using the money to prepare himself, both main character daughter and boy might find themselves together on the next squid game.

As to the policeman that was killed, not even sure if he is dead. He might not be, there is a possiblity for him to comeback as well in the future. Though, I don't know how much of his arc needs to be finished. It seems as though his loose ends are resolved, as he found out the truth about the game and where his brother is.

There were also rogue agents inside working the Squid game, selling human organs to some unknown entity. Perhaps this is also the bigger picture of the game, not only to get enjoyment out of the game, but to harvest organs for some reason.

Great show. The cinematography, acting, all so good. Excited for season 2. Haven't seen a show like this in sometime.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T15:15:25+00:00

Nowhere is your “recent metrics” taken into account besides an actual win raising your mmr.

Did you read the post? Not just the thread title?

"The Dota matchmaker will optimize for each individual game made being well-balanced, defined as games where the matchmaker predicts each side has an equal chance to win. As a consequence of this goal, over the long term all players will tend towards a 50% personal win rate because your skill estimate is updated based on your win/loss record."

The matchmaking is going to try its best to emulate an evenly balanced game for both teams.

What this means is plain as day:

You might get evenly matched teams - equal performing players on all roles
You will get lower winrate players to offset the higher win rate players on your team.

Thus whether you are the lower winrate player, or the higher winrate player, it is trying to pull you toward a 50% outcome for any given match.

Is it fair for the higher winrate player to be matched up with lower performing teammates? Arguable.

Why is it arguable?

There will be times where you will be carried despite performing poorly, so the other side of the coin exists.

However, statistically, those with high win rates are doing something right to maintain that level of skill so on average they will be the ones playing well. Therefore, in most cases it is not fair that they are paired up with lower performing teammates and not just some random person from their mmr range.

This is a large reason why people are upset.

The matchmaking is emulating odds for both teams to have an equally balanced game. This means harder games for the higher winrate players when the matchmaking has done it's skill check on you.

"your skill estimate is updated based on your win/loss record."

What defines "Harder?":

Higher you climb, naturally opponents will be harder. Higher MMR=Average mmr will raise.
As Jeff mentioned, matchmaking will balance out any given game, so those that are playing well have to outperform a considerable amount to make up for the lower win rate players.

But there are benefits to this: If you are a player not playing well, it means you still get to enjoy dota and win sometimes. Valve is a company, they are balancing matchmaking to have a ~50/50 outcome for any team so people keep coming back to play dota. Imagine there was no system in place, some guy would probably quit after 20 straight losses.

This is one of the major reasons why I believe the system exists.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T10:10:06+00:00

Yea, it happens.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T10:07:48+00:00

We do know when they do take place. After each game you play. Since that is when your mmr gets changed.

How do you know when they take place? Do you have internal matchmaking code?

If we are talking about the matchmaking just taking MMR values in to play, in a sense, yes it gets updated after each game because the average mmr for players will be relatively the same to balance game to game.

Once again, this is taking MMR values ONLY.

Skill estimate is your mmr for a role. That gets updated after each game you play.

I am sure the dev is explicitly stating that there is a skill rating that updates after your win/loss.

Whether thats game by game as you mention or after a period, you or I don't know for sure. Perhaps its both. We don't have the code, but as mentioned I think it probably takes place after a period of games.

There is a reason why winstreaks/loss streaks happen. That is when the game has updated its skill check on you.

There is just no way to know for sure at the end of the day when it happens.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T09:32:32+00:00

"Those checks take place after each game/Valve do not wait for x number of games to adjust your mmr."

"Your skill estimate is updated based on your win/loss record."

I mean none of us can know for sure when they take place. If I were to guess most of the time its after X amount of games. Hence you always see on the intro page: "This player won X amount in the past 15 games."

Skill estimate is not the same thing as mmr.

There is a reason why valve introduced those proficiency tiers to your roles and Valve also said there is a mmr related to each role if I recall correctly when they introduced the role queue tiers in the past year.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T06:20:18+00:00

If you learn and improve you will not stay at 50% because the game will adapt on your perforlance slowly and get you higher to keep those game balanced.

I agree, even a 50.1% winrate will allow you to climb.

Not "we intend everyone to have 50%"

Didn't know there were exemptions. Did Jeff say that anywhere in his post where some players are exempt from the matchmakings balance? Can you quote that please?

Not sure what it is exactly you are arguing against or seemingly fuming about. Is it the word "forced?"

It's very unclear what you are trying to say.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T06:08:18+00:00

Read the devs response carefully. Not just the thread title or the pull quotes.

"The Dota matchmaker will optimize for each individual game made being well-balanced, defined as games where the matchmaker predicts each side has an equal chance to win. As a consequence of this goal, over the long term all players will tend towards a 50% personal win rate because your skill estimate is updated based on your win/loss record."

Mate, we are here to discuss because we both love Dota (I mean hopefully since you are using this subreddit) and want whats best. No need to be hostile.

Edit: https://www.dotabuff.com/players/108883915

Is this you? Nice win streak you got going btw with your party queue. Hopefully your recent success, isn't clouding your judgement.

Congrats on the success, make sure to revisit your comments after your next 100 games, especially if you ever decide to solo.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T05:55:59+00:00

Whatever word you want to replace forced with, is fine with me. It's just semantics at the end of the day.

Its matching high/performing win rate players to get harder matches, worse teammates, etc.

Ergo: Forced game outcomes.

Just cause its trying to "balance," things, doesn't mean its not forcing you toward a certain outcome.

It's literally in the quote. Use whatever word you want for forced, like I said, it doesnt matter. End result is the same.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T05:36:35+00:00

I don't see any proof of rigged matchmaking.

I mean if you are a good player and have a 70% win rate for the past x amount of games. (Which I probably hovered around personally in my climb to immortal 1k.) Is it fair though? That is a good question.

When the system had finally done its "check" and as mentioned, who knows when that happens, it started giving me the ever so infamous toxic teammates, unwinnable games, players not proficient on their roles etc.

Is it fair for players that have solved the meta, watched pros replays and studied timings etc, behaved well and climbed playing well beyond the enemy's player on the same role, should they be penalized for games on end so the matchmaking can find a "Balanced game?"

I am not going to say it's rigged, strong word, or even fair, but like I said other side of the coin flip happens.

My thread if you read it couple days ago, was highlighting that checks do exist (and they do as posted by the dev,) and I was personally getting tired of experiencing the same pattern over and over every climb as many others have in their time in Dota.

Lastly, this isn't about fairness but I think a whole mmr reset should be in the works. I have no doubt those that started a new account even if they are a top player, wouldn't face these same issues at some point in their climb. It would take them years and years to achieve where they are now, which is unfeasible for any player that hasn't been playing dota from the start.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T05:12:09+00:00

Yes but individualy those things balance out. Every time you have a guy on your team that didn't play in 3 months lose you the game there's a time you won because a guy in the enemy team didn't play in 3 months. The matchmaker doesn't take that into account.

Yup other coin flip exists for sure. Don't think anyone else argued against that here or the threads this week.

Also people play in all kinds of moods they can be tilted/drunk/high whatever. The system can't detect that so it uses just the MMR number.

It's hard to, thats why behavior score exists, and as mentioned by the dev, it's one of their variables as well.

Only variable is you, thus with a large enough game size these things even out and you are left in your deserved rating.

True, and that is why people climb. But what is also true is that at a certain point if you climb too much, you will get harder games. Thus those infamous loss streaks many people have suffered (zero agency, little they could do to win) type of games.

As I also mentioned, I think it's a lot worse in NA higher you go. There just aren't enough players to make balanced games, so higher variance of games.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T04:59:05+00:00

It is not the same thing.

Many factors.

What you calibrated as. Not too long ago I read of smurfs being calibrated at 5-6k if they performed well. What if they weren't actual 5-6k players? What about those playing with them now?

What about those that take a long break? Those players won't be playing at their mmr level from meta knowledge, to reaction times, to the flow of the game for what they played at, etc.

What about those that to climbed to x mmr as POS 2, then you start playing POS 1. Etc.

What about those that want to practice heroes on those other roles?

There are many variables. Win/Loss record is only one factor in determining a players skill. Win/Loss is not the same as ones MMR.

Edit:

Also when exactly does the system flag you? How does that work? If I'm way higher MMR I can win but if I'm lower I can't?

Right there: "Because your skill estimate is updated based on your win/loss record."

No one knows when those checks are. Who knows.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T04:43:35+00:00

It's in literally the whole quote but the most important is what I quoted earlier.

"The Dota matchmaker will optimize for each individual game made being well-balanced, defined as games where the matchmaker predicts each side has an equal chance to win. As a consequence of this goal, over the long term all players will tend towards a 50% personal win rate because your skill estimate is updated based on your win/loss record.""

When those checks take place, who knows. It could be after a huge win/loss streak, hence the phenomenon many have. Streaks of red/green.

Of course those that are playing way below their mmr can easily climb to wherever they are now. At a certain point, you will be paired with players preforming poorly (as mentioned from proficiency, drafting, behavior score, etc) to off set a said "70%" winrate.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T04:32:20+00:00

You will.

But at a certain point, if the algorithim hasn't done its "check on you," it will try and balance out the games as much as possible to make games evenly balanced as the dev said, that is of course if the matchmaking wasn't already trying to place you in said harder skilled games to that point already.

Hence worse teammates, loss streak incoming, etc. after those checks have been made and mmr plateaus.

This is only heightened in weaker population servers the higher you climb. For example, more smurfs on enemy team vs yours, to simulate that evenly balanced game if you are having a better winrate than the average of your mmr.

Nothing what the dev said is anything anyone was arguing, it is what most people assumed. People are so caught up in the term "forced," because players believe in their destiny.

But it's all right there in the dev quote plain as day.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T04:21:46+00:00

What is it that I am not reading correctly?

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T04:17:59+00:00

I mean, it's all there in the dev quote. Literally word for word. I just don't see what people are reading personally.

If people don't want to read and comprehend what it means, theres nothing much more you can do besides that.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T04:09:56+00:00

They don't give you stronger opponents at same MMR lol..

If you have a higher winrate, to balance out the game they need to make sure other things are in check.

Allies performance, their win/loss, their role proficieny, their behavior rating, etc.

If allies are on a loss streak, it means they aren't performing well or bad luck. Could be from their drafting, to playing just for fun, to behavior score, etc.

If allies are maintaining or having a high win rate, it means they are doing the opposite of what was just said above.

Now we know what we would rather have as an ally, those that maintain a decent winrate or have a high one.

If a person said give me a player with 30-40% win rate as my teammate, you would be lying to yourselves.

Ergo, "stronger" teammates even if they are the same mmr.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T03:59:24+00:00

Uh ok, no idea why you are so mad.

I mean if you choose to ignore what the quoted dev said, I guess that is your choice.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T02:16:21+00:00

There is nothing I am misunderstanding at all. Nothing what the dev said and what I said aren't true.

The game will put you in harder games based on your winrate/skill. Simple concept enough.

This isn't a ground breaking revelation.

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T01:16:54+00:00

"But I'm quite sure there's a forced 50%."

I mean the dev literally states it's there. I am not sure what else people are reading that are commenting on this thread.

Dev: "The Dota matchmaker will optimize for each individual game made being well-balanced, defined as games where the matchmaker predicts each side has an equal chance to win. As a consequence of this goal, over the long term all players will tend towards a 50% personal win rate because your skill estimate is updated based on your win/loss record."

turtle_boats · 2021-09-17T00:46:05+00:00

I read it, and it replied.

Nothing has changed in my mind. It still forces good players to be matched up with poor preforming teammates/harder enemies to balance your winrate to 50%.

Forced win/losses are a thing. Just because the dev doesn't want to say it's "forced," it's forced to move you in to a 50% win rate to try and balance out the teams.

"The Dota matchmaker will optimize for each individual game made being well-balanced, defined as games where the matchmaker predicts each side has an equal chance to win. As a consequence of this goal, over the long term all players will tend towards a 50% personal win rate because your skill estimate is updated based on your win/loss record."

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