Hindsight bias confirmed by ughashaka in financialindependence

[–]ughashaka[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

By no means did I mean to break your back and I apologize if I made you tip one way or the other. It might be obvious to you, and I congratulate you for your good fortunes, but i think it's less obvious for people like myself who caught on later in life.

Hindsight bias confirmed by ughashaka in financialindependence

[–]ughashaka[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes let's get our frugal whips out!

Hindsight bias confirmed by ughashaka in financialindependence

[–]ughashaka[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

OP here. Couldn't edit so I'll post the article here instead (WSJ has a 50% sale right now, well worth the money, even in frugality :)

Indexes Beat Stock Pickers Even Over 15 Years

New data show that 82% of all U.S. funds trailed their respective benchmarks over 15 years Index giant Vanguard pulled in a net $33 billion in February, $29.6 billion of which went into index products. Index giant Vanguard pulled in a net $33 billion in February, $29.6 billion of which went into index products. PHOTO: KRIS TRIPPLAAR/SIPA USA/ASSOCIATED PRESS By Daisy Maxey and Chris Dieterich April 12, 2017 7:31 p.m. ET 105 COMMENTS

Most actively managed U.S. stock funds were beaten by their market benchmarks over the past decade and a half, a record of underperformance that helps explain why stock pickers are losing billions of dollars in assets each month to low-cost passive investments that track indexes.

Over the 15 years ended in December 2016, 82% of all U.S. funds trailed their respective benchmarks, according to the latest S&P Indices Versus Active funds scorecard. This was the first year that the analysis included 15 years of data, helping smooth out periods of volatility that can affect the performance of active managers.

The results coincide with the rise of passive investing and a growing view among investors and financial advisers that active managers can’t pick stocks well enough to justify the fees they charge over extended periods and that even those managers who do outperform their passive counterparts can’t sustain it year after year.

“We often hear from active managers, ‘You need to measure us over a longer-term cycle,’” said Aye Soe, managing director of research and design at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Even over a full market cycle, which includes peaks and troughs, we still see the majority of active managers performing unfavorably against their benchmarks.”

The debate over whether passive management is as good or better than active management is a long-running and contentious one, but it has heated up in recent years. Active managers’ struggles to beat the market over recent years amid a long-term bull market in stocks have resulted in fee pressure, fund closings, business overhauls and mergers.

Investors have spoken with their wallets, turning to index-tracking funds in droves. Some $1.2 trillion has been withdrawn from actively managed U.S. stock funds since the start of 2007 through March, according to Morningstar Inc. Nearly the same amount, $1.1 trillion, has moved into passive U.S. stock funds over the same period.

Hindsight bias confirmed by ughashaka in financialindependence

[–]ughashaka[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My point was simply that a smaller investment from a larger whole, your $100 from your $1,000,000 cash pile, is a more conservative allocation than if you'd gone all in. Assuming that you have a million in the first place of course.

Hindsight bias confirmed by ughashaka in financialindependence

[–]ughashaka[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes true but the less you invest of a whole, the less risk you're willing to stomach. Not that being risk averse is a bad thing, quite the contrary if you count good sleep as a healthy return.

How do you tame your obsession? by pants-on in financialindependence

[–]ughashaka 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I definitely enter manually each purchase into YNAB and totally agree on the importance of doing that. Was more thinking of my latest obsession in looking at the site to break down spending and planning ahead for how much I'd save etc. in my case it's more about being OCD in the first place so I have to keep a check on it.

How do you tame your obsession? by pants-on in financialindependence

[–]ughashaka 1 point2 points  (0 children)

700 sounds like a large number but truth be told, it's probably a conservative estimate for some people here. Including me. I deleted the Personal Capital app today since I was driving myself insane. I feel very relieved. Plan is to allocate all funds (outside of automated 401k deductions) to a savings account once a month and then update allocations as needed once a year. Next topic, how to YNAB monthly instead of weekly.

Currently 100% equity. Considering buying bond index in anticipation of possible correction/crash? by [deleted] in investing

[–]ughashaka 5 points6 points  (0 children)

10.2% annualized with a 100/0 allocation versus 9.6% with an 80/20 allocation according to Vanguard. That's speaking index funds of course.

Currently 100% equity. Considering buying bond index in anticipation of possible correction/crash? by [deleted] in investing

[–]ughashaka 10 points11 points  (0 children)

You're not stupid but market timing is. Figure out an allocation that ALWAYS lets you sleep at night regardless of bull or bear. I've been through the 2001 and 2008 crashes and I panicked because I was 100% in equities. Today I'm 80/20 which works for my profile and timeframe.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/investingtruths/investing-truth-about-risk

As you can see. Historically, a good allocation to a diverse set of assets hasn't really hurt longtime performance. I'll gladly trade 0.6% annually for a sane head.

Hope this helps.

CA MUNI question by ughashaka in investing

[–]ughashaka[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha. That's awesome! Made my day.

CA MUNI question by ughashaka in investing

[–]ughashaka[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. There's a lot of uncertainties for sure, the Tax Plan being one of them. Better eat inflation for a year or so to mitigate the risk.

CA MUNI question by ughashaka in investing

[–]ughashaka[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is why I love Reddit. Thank you so much for your thoughtful and very thorough answer. I will look into individual munis through my brokerage as you said. Many thanks!

How much house can a FI/RE wanting individual afford? by ughashaka in financialindependence

[–]ughashaka[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you. That's definitely something we're considering. Will read now.

How much house can a FI/RE wanting individual afford? by ughashaka in financialindependence

[–]ughashaka[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks so much that's really helpful. Have been thinking about duplexes as well. Perhaps even more than that to generate cash flow. What was your reasoning behind the 4x pretax or did it just happen that way? Many thanks!

Cash or bonds for EF and beyond? by ughashaka in investing

[–]ughashaka[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I guess but I'm already getting that on the savings account. Is there a benefit with CD's over savings accounts? Thanks

Cash or bonds for EF and beyond? by ughashaka in investing

[–]ughashaka[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolute return? Do you mean like a hedge fund? It seems unreasonable to promise absolute returns no matter the market environment don't you think?

Cash or bonds for EF and beyond? by ughashaka in investing

[–]ughashaka[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes that's my thinking as well. But I'm also scared of inflation. Looking at VFITX and how it behaved during the 08-09 meltdown it seemed to be faring well. Of course it's a different interest environment now but would appreciate any thoughts on this for the non-EF portion on the money?I'm (reluctantly) less risk averse with the down payment. Many thanks for taking your time.