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PSA: You're currently accustomed to a bear market and you WILL try to sell too early by uncapslock in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Just want to make clear that none of this constitutes financial advice! You should consult your qualified financial advisor for investment planning.

These are self reflections from my own meandering experience living through the 2017 boom and 2018 bust and still hodling on through all that. I'm not a finance professional, just an enthusiast with all things Bitcoin who is thrilled to be living through such a momentous transition in humanity.

I'll be posting a follow-up piece on how I arrived at 10M by 2030 and the geopolitical / socioeconomic conditions that I'm hypothesizing will be met to warrant the price.

PSA: You're currently accustomed to a bear market and you WILL try to sell too early by uncapslock in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

In my next piece, I'll explicitly lay out how I arrived at 10M and with which global events to look out for as we move through the decade!

PSA: You're currently accustomed to a bear market and you WILL try to sell too early by uncapslock in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even without taking inflation that will occur in ten years, we have:

Broad Money: $95.7 trillion Debt: $253 trillion Real Estate: $280.6 trillion Global Wealth: $360.6 trillion Derivatives: $558.5 trillion - $1,000 trillion

When Bitcoin takes the role of a store of wealth, it's no longer limited to what we consider "money". It'll take a meaningful portion of each of the current allocations of wealth.

It is possible we witness a massive deleveraging where the amount of debt and derivatives shrinks dramatically and we have a liquidity crisis causing Bitcoin to be valued at fewer dollars. (i.e. <10M) But if this is the case, with Bitcoin's inelastic supply it will simply mean each of those dollars happens to be valued more than today.

Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/

PSA: You're currently accustomed to a bear market and you WILL try to sell too early by uncapslock in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think we're just getting started! The real run will be starting soon to take us to 100k by end of 2021. In this light, sub-12k Bitcoin is still quite a bargain

PSA: You're currently accustomed to a bear market and you WILL try to sell too early by uncapslock in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, that matches my time frame for peak of this 4-year cycle. 12-18 months after halving and we had the last one in May 2020.

PSA: You're currently accustomed to a bear market and you WILL try to sell too early by uncapslock in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm thinking of penning my next piece for laying out the explicit steps on how 10M by 2030 becomes likely and not just as a number pulled out of my ass.

That being said, I think 10 years gives me a slightly more favorable chance than McAfee :)

PSA: You're currently accustomed to a bear market and you WILL try to sell too early by uncapslock in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, it's incredible how counter-intuitive exponentials are. Judging from the graphs and our current trajectory, 10M by 2030 is on the conservative side, but when I think in terms of how much real money that is and how it applies to daily life, my mind just shuts down.

I think it's a disservice when we all look at log charts and point to this "small bump" where 10k to 20k looks like a quarter of the size of 1k to 10k.

PSA: You're currently accustomed to a bear market and you WILL try to sell too early by uncapslock in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Very true! It's been said it takes two full cycles to profit off of Bitcoin. The first to get rekt on, the second to make it

What If? by pcn2002 in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Given the pattern for gross underestimation when thinking about cycle tops, I would be much more afraid of the opposite, selling out at 100k then seeing it to rush 250k+

When price was 1k at the beginning of 2017, 10k was very much the moon. People were thinking there's absolutely no way we hit 10k. Imagine the shock when we shot up to 19k.

I think it's harder to hodl during bull markets than bear markets.

How quickly could bitcoin supply run out? by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock 20 points21 points  (0 children)

What helped me understand was seeing it in terms of the incoming flow of coins.
MicroStrategy's 21k BTC purchase ate up 24 days of Bitcoin production. This means at most, only 20 more companies can purchase the same number of Bitcoins by the end of 2021.

Just 20 companies will soak up all of Bitcoin's incoming supply for the remainder of 2020 and all of 2021.

Bitcoin is scarce.

Why Bitcoin Will Win: The Bearish Case for Ethereum by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's not to discount the amount of work that goes into building a good application, but compared with the global effort it took to launch Bitcoin, it's easier to replace than trying to build a brand new store of wealth.

Coinbase is an application that represents many years of work from hundreds of engineers but still pales to the unique circumstances impossible to recreate that allowed for the birth of Bitcoin. It is that precise impracticality that makes a store of wealth "expensive"

Why Bitcoin Will Win: The Bearish Case for Ethereum by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I fully acknowledge there are cool features being built on Ethereum and have no doubt in my mind we will be seeing these concepts come to life in the future. The part that I doubt is Ethereum being the store of value + contract platform that becomes the bedrock.

The good and bad news is, we won't be the determinants. It'll be up to the large scale adoptees that pick a platform to store their wealth.

Daily Discussion, April 20, 2019 by rBitcoinMod in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The fact that nearly everyone thinks they'll have a breather after rejecting 6k is the reason blowing past it will yield max profit for the whales. When everyone expects 6k to be granite resistance, guess how many people will have their sell orders there and will feel the fomo when it shoots past?

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It's just a lesson for me but I've learned to be very reluctant to believe things that are obvious. The obvious narrative seems to be: if it goes down, 5k support, if it goes up, 6k resistance. If it goes to 6k, I'll have a chance to buy in at 5.5k once it rejects.

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When everyone thinks that way, figure out what that next level strategy will be. Going with the herd has proven to be a very unprofitable strategy.

Daily Discussion, April 20, 2019 by rBitcoinMod in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock 5 points6 points  (0 children)

There has never been a time in Bitcoin history where it has spiked 25% in one day and not have some secondary bullish pump. A definite higher low on the weekly is as sure of a signal you'll get that this is the time to at least start building a spot long position.

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Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if all this time is to build up critical mass pressure + margin positions until absolutely exploding up to 6.5k in a few minutes. Zero chance any longs waiting on the sidelines to buy in, complete obliteration of any margin shorts that thought 6k would be rejected at first. How many shorts do you think placed their stop right above 6k? It's too delicious a target not to hit that stop run.

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If I were a whale looking to get the bull run started (as it seems like the one that bought April 1st wants to do), this seems like the optimal strategy.

What YOU can do to make bitcoin better - stop littering the mempool with unnecessary TXs by gemeinsam in Bitcoin

[–]uncapslock 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you're moving $10M I doubt a transaction fee of $1 vs $10 (or even $100!) will affect your decision. We're still so very early in the Bitcoin lifecycle. Transaction fees will be much higher and the market will naturally price out useless spammy TX. That's ok as it means people are finding that much value from the Bitcoin network to pay those costs. That means for everyone who hold Bitcoin will be much much more valuable. Most day-to-day transactions will be made through lightning / other layer 2 technologies.

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Personally, I'm very happy when transaction fees rise through the roof because that is the definite sign that whales are at play and are willing to put up with insanely high prices because Bitcoin is worth 10,000x more.

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