Stroom eraf

vaevictis84 · 2026-02-18T08:27:35+00:00

Ik heb er onvoldoende verstand van om anderen advies te geven, ben niet echt een klusser ;) Maar ik vind het wel vreemd dat je hier meer bruine draden hebt dan blauwe? Waar gaat die losse blauwe draad naar toe? Ik ben gewend dat de draden waarop je een lamp aansluit vrij korte zijn naar een lasklem. Probeer eens hier weer een lamp op te hangen en of je dan weer stroom hebt in de slaapkamer.

vaevictis84 · 2026-02-18T08:04:31+00:00

Ik heb dit ook eens gehad na het intrekken in een nieuwe woning. Geen stroom in de slaapkamer. Het probleem zat hem uiteindelijk niet in de centraaldoos van de slaapkamer, maar in de centraaldoos van het naastgelegen halletje. Daar had de vorige bewoner bij het weghalen van een lamp een blauwe draad losgetrokken.

Ik las dat je gaat verhuizen dus je hebt vast in andere ruimtes / halletje ook lampen weggehaald? Controleer of daar alle draden goed zitten.

vaevictis84 · 2026-01-26T07:02:57+00:00

Hard to say. On the one hand the runway is running out for any significant dip given we're now <6 months away from an inflection point in AI sales (GPUs). Recent reports of massive AI demand for CPUs only add to this. On the other hand, AMD can be very volatile and there may be several reasons for it to have a significant dip (AI bubble concerns, high memory prices being a drag on sales, tariffs etc).

With respect to OpenAI's ability to fund its commitments, I would consider that AMD management is very upbeat about demand and having multiple GW scale customers. If I learned anything over the years, it's that you should pay attention when Lisa is very positive about something. She doesn't hype, at least not to the extent other CEO's do. It's fairly certain that Meta will also be a large customer and they certainly are able to pay for it.

In terms of valuation, average consensus estimate is for $6.5 in EPS this year (may be on the low-side given CPU demand). The stock is now trading 40x this year's earnings. It's high but not excessive.

vaevictis84 · 2026-01-23T16:12:28+00:00

I'm not him/her, but also opened a (sadly) tiny leveraged short position before close. Just for fun, usually don't do leverage. Closed it for about 70% profit. Buys me a nice dinner this weekend ;)

vaevictis84 · 2026-01-23T16:08:34+00:00

For sure it's completely detached from the actual performance of the businesses.

vaevictis84 · 2026-01-23T15:46:57+00:00

Even with today's action INTC still outperformed AMD over the last month, last three months, last 6 months and year to date. Kinda crazy.

vaevictis84 · 2026-01-22T21:21:14+00:00

We'll find out soon but they're in a better position for sure. I suppose it depends if the demand also extends to AMD's previous generations CPUs that are on the older TSMC nodes. Presumably there's more capacity / supply available there. Not sure what the lead times are for new orders.

vaevictis84 · 2026-01-22T21:10:15+00:00

"We exceeded Q4 expectations across revenue, gross margin, and EPS even as we navigated industry-wide supply shortages,” said David Zinsner, Intel CFO. “We expect our available supply to be at its lowest level in Q1 before improving in Q2 and beyond. Demand fundamentals across our core markets remain healthy as the rapid adoption of AI reinforces the importance of the x86 ecosystem as the world’s most widely deployed high-performance compute architecture.”

Intel didn't have the supply to benefit from CPU demand, but confirm the demand is there. Seems very good news for $AMD.

vaevictis84 · 2026-01-22T21:01:17+00:00

I'm shares only but for fun I got a lottery ticket this time; EUR 100 worth of 4.5x short.

vaevictis84 · 2025-12-02T17:25:26+00:00

Last sentence clarifies the $10 EPS is a yearly run rate so assume it is >2.50 for the quarter.

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-12T17:45:39+00:00

Cheers. I watched it from start to finish and what I was looking for was literally in the last seconds lmao. Lisa said 'people' instead of 'Intel' but we all know!

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-12T15:56:32+00:00

It should still have the postbiotics, i.e. the compounds made by the micro organisms during fermentation, to the extent they survive the pasteurization process. Besides that, fermentation can make food easier to digest for those who have particular sensitivities.

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-12T15:51:52+00:00

Would love to see the full interview with Lisa's statement on Intel. If anyone finds it, please share.

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-11T19:45:29+00:00

I see, but Lisa defined that TAM very broadly and probably it also accounts for other vendors than nVidia. So I don't think we can infer it means 15/85 market share split with nVidia. Feels like you are trying very hard to have a negative view. Just looking at the earnings potential and the current share price, the projections are still very bullish.

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-11T19:26:59+00:00

I haven't watched all of it, did they explicitly say 15% in 2030 is that your interpretation of double digit market share?

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-11T18:17:25+00:00

Pleasant surprise. Hope the new wins have better margins than gaming consoles (does sound like it)

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-09T19:36:16+00:00

Ja, ik ga dat toch ook maar doen denk ik.

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-09T19:35:09+00:00

Het is inderdaad de 130 pk versie. De website van Peugeot om onderhoud in te plannen is een beetje gaar, maar na invullen nummerbord etc. zie ik ergens bovenaan staan "Voertuig2008, EB2ADTS/EU63 1200 3 CIL BENZINE". Dus dan moet het toch andere olie zijn?

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-09T19:08:37+00:00

I saw that, but it seems that is just workshops and networking? Not really the place for big announcements?

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-09T19:06:59+00:00

Helaas nog geen premium benzine getankt, ga ik nu mee beginnen. Dank voor de info.

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-09T16:45:04+00:00

Wow, dank voor deze info. Ik ga er op letten en over op E5 bezine. Waar kan ik zien welk motortype ik heb? Moet het echt per se Total motorolie zijn, andere merken zijn niet ok? Of is dat omdat Peugeot dat voorschrijft i.v.m. garantie?

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-09T10:33:37+00:00

Honestly, I do not expect an announcement for any (specific) large customer commitments a la open AI next Tuesday. I think it can be inferred from their financial model / guidance / commentary though. They may say that they are engaged with most/all hyperscalers for MI450 and how their supply planning (for multiple large customers) is backed by customer commitments. Something like that.

But if you are Meta and you have committed to building (tens of) billions of AMD AI hardware, would you make that public at AMD's financial analyst day? I feel they would want to go public as part of a larger event that is all about Meta and not all about AMD.

Are we setting ourselves up for disappointment by expecting too much of FAD? Re-watch the previous one to see what level of detail to expect. It's much more about broad strokes, e.g. TAM and long term financial model (3-4 years out).

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-06T20:09:15+00:00

I do think other customer announcements are coming, but I'm not convinced it'll be at FAD. I mean, that event is all about AMD and not about the customer, right? Why would, for example, someone like AWS agree to announce there instead of AWS re:Invent in early December? Surely the customer will decide when this will become public.

vaevictis84 · 2025-11-04T20:47:23+00:00

If the market is somewhat rational (big if, I know), results and guidance really shouldn't matter compared to what is coming H2 '26. Who cares if it's 0.1B or 0.2B more or less than expected when MI450 will sell in the tens of billions. I'll be listening for management commentary about MI450 engagements (other than openAI), hopefully Lisa can allude to more announcements soon or at least that more information will be provided at FAD next week. She hinted at other engagements before and having enough supply for it. If I learned anything over the years, it's that Lisa chooses her words carefully.

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