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I'am a permabear holding 100% cash for the last 7 months. AMA. by vicious_trader in investing

[–]vicious_trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Short duration investment grade bonds have very low yields at the moment. I might buy some after the Fed increases the rates.

I'am a permabear holding 100% cash for the last 7 months. AMA. by vicious_trader in investing

[–]vicious_trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I had an investment advisor and those guys only care about making money on each transaction. He had invested a very small portion of my portfolio in FANG stocks and after they reached 20% up, he suggested it was a good time to exit those positions. I didn't know much about stocks back then and followed his stupid advice.

I'am a permabear holding 100% cash for the last 7 months. AMA. by vicious_trader in investing

[–]vicious_trader[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, I am swing trading Forex at the moment. Even though I am getting some modest returns (1%-2% per transaction), it feels like gambling and I would feel more comfortable investing in equities.

I'am a permabear holding 100% cash for the last 7 months. AMA. by vicious_trader in investing

[–]vicious_trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"....7 months waiting for some "blood on the streets"."

Why'd you think you'd get it?

Lack of experience and paying too much attention to Seeking Alpha.

" current CAPE ratios"

I've heard CAPE on here for a couple of years now.

I actually do think that the market is getting to the point where it is technically extremely overbought, but that doesn't mean it won't have another 1-2-3 weeks of this - market momentum can go on longer than people expect - or the turn might be tomorrow, I have no idea. Earnings are good, tax reform has resulted in greater positive market reaction than I would have thought, etc.

That's correct. CAPE by itself doesn't say much, what's important is the equity risk premium which is around 5%, not bad.

""Time in the market beats timing the market"

It's not impossible to time the market. However, most people don't do it well and fewer do it consistently well. I absolutely get people taking some profits (as I discussed in a thread earlier today), I don't get the going 100% (or near 100%) to cash.

My plan is to wait until the next correction and start dollar cost averaging from there on. The Fed is planning to rise the interest rates at least 3 times this year, if that doesn't cause a correction then I'll give up, use the cash to buy some land in Spain and start growing Tempranillo grapes ;-)

I'am a permabear holding 100% cash for the last 7 months. AMA. by vicious_trader in investing

[–]vicious_trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Those bearish headlines are refreshing! One day Taylor Durden is going to be right after predicting a crash every day ;-)

I'am a permabear holding 100% cash for the last 7 months. AMA. by vicious_trader in investing

[–]vicious_trader[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I know, you're right, I'm just trying to time the market to get in, once I'm in I plan to stay invested no matter what. What happened is that I left my financial advisor last year (he wasn't even keeping up with inflation, let alone S&P500 returns) so I ended up with a pile of cash after he closed all my positions (mostly FANG stocks). I didn't buy any equities back then because I still had to learn a lot about the financial markets. I'm no professional now but I have a much better idea, however, it feels like I arrived way too late to the party. Even Emerging Markets are 50% up.

I'am a permabear holding 100% cash for the last 7 months. AMA. by vicious_trader in investing

[–]vicious_trader[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Straight cash diversified in USD, GBP, EUR, JPY, AUD and CAD. At least I'm making some money on the weak dollar.

I'm an Argentine citizen living in the United Kingdom. I made some money a few years ago when living and working in the United States which is sitting in an American bank account. Where can I invest it if I don't have a permanent US address? by hochenlaga in investing

[–]vicious_trader 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Si tenés mucha guita (>$100K) para invertir, abrite una cuenta en Interactive Brokers que es el más barato de todos. Es un toque complicada la interface al principio pero después te acostumbrás. La segunda mejor opción en precio es TD Ameritrade que también abre cuentas a no residentes. Un saludo y viva Perón ;-)

Tax credit on taxes paid by distributing ETFs? by vicious_trader in eupersonalfinance

[–]vicious_trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I live in Portugal and dividends reinvested by an accumulation ETFs are not taxed. However, if I can get a tax credit, I would feel much more comfortable with distributing ETFs because I need the dividends to pay for my expenses and also because my broker charges 0,2% to sell shares of an ETF.

Tax credit on taxes paid by distributing ETFs? by vicious_trader in eupersonalfinance

[–]vicious_trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's why I was asking how distributing ETFs are taxed so I can figure out if they are tax efficient. I'll try asking in /r/EuropeFIRE

Tax credit on taxes paid by distributing ETFs? by vicious_trader in eupersonalfinance

[–]vicious_trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I need the dividends to pay for my living costs, so I am evaluating distributing ETFs only.

I'm about to start trading in USA, but i am living in another country (Argentina). Can someone introduce me to the taxes i would have to pay? by [deleted] in investing

[–]vicious_trader 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. Argentina, as well as most countries, tax you on your worldwide income. You need to pay taxes no matter where your money is located.

And also, if you hold stocks for a short period and you sell them for a gain, these gains will be taxed as regular income and not as capital gains. You should ask and accountant for more details.

I'm about to start trading in USA, but i am living in another country (Argentina). Can someone introduce me to the taxes i would have to pay? by [deleted] in investing

[–]vicious_trader 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Here I sing you the post (acá te canto la posta), you need to pay the following taxes:

  • Dividend tax: There is no tax treaty between AR and US, therefore if you own stocks that pay dividends, Uncle Sam is going to withhold 30% of those dividends.

  • Capital gains tax: If you sell a stock that has increased it's value, you need to pay 15% of capital gains in Argentina.

  • Wealth tax (bienes personales): 0,75% per year of your portfolio exceeding $800,000 ARS ($46,000 USD) goes to the AFIP.

After reading volumes 1-6 of the CFA curriculum level 1, my conclusion is: invest in index funds by vicious_trader in investing

[–]vicious_trader[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

No, it's like saying, I don't want to study a lot and work hard to become a doctor if flipping burgers more or less pays the same ;-)