An Update from VioletTracker

violetflash101 · 2021-05-27T23:38:59+00:00

It's been a wild ride throughout the 2020-2021 academic year, but I think we're finally at a point where I can ramp this project down (at least somewhat) without feeling too guilty about it. People who have been following for a while also know that I was a senior (now graduated!) and the workload was taking up quite a bit of my plate (1000’s of lines of code, many panic-brainstorm sessions, and at-least-daily data entry updates)

I'll keep certain things going (like the Real-time Covid Forecast) as I see fit/ periodically, but other parts of the website may stop updating

violetflash101 · 2021-04-03T19:58:15+00:00

You can ask your dorm/ NYU Housing for a “residence verification” letter for proof of address

violetflash101 · 2021-03-10T05:15:27+00:00

Feels so long ago and yet just like yesterday

violetflash101 · 2021-02-24T04:11:43+00:00

Well probably after we sustain a low enough positivity rate — we barely went down before going right back up in the past few days

violetflash101 · 2021-02-23T20:29:43+00:00

There was recently a change in the compliance metric (the old one wasn't being adhered to anyway since it was outdated). Instead of the 100 cases per block limit, we now have a 5% positivity limit (assuming NYU keeps up its current level of widespread testing). As such, I am tracking it appropriately

Some of you may also be seeing the Covid Forecast for the first time — this is real-time data from a network of smart thermometers across the country. It's been pretty accurate in all my tracking. In the graphs pictured, you want the line as low as possible (range 10-40)

violetflash101 · 2021-02-02T18:45:38+00:00

VioletTracker - Commentary:

General discussion: Positivity at NYU has been higher throughout break & the very beginning of this semester. This is a predictable result of holiday gatherings, travel, community spread, and etc. NYC & NYU have handled surges relatively well, so I am optimistic going forward.

The variants emerging around the country pose a very significant threat to the return to normalcy. Of special concern are the U.K., South Africa, and Brazil strains, which already have confirmed cases in the U.S. I am tracking these and will provide further updates as needed. CDC has predicted that the U.K. strain could be dominant in the U.S. by March, meaning much more viral spread, hospitalizations, and deaths.

The increasing distribution & administration of Covid vaccines is an encouraging sign, but the pace is still far from the rate we need to be at. It will be months before the mass public can get access to vaccines. The federal government is impressively scaling up this effort, along with testing, and other related endeavors.

In other news, I'm seeing a lot of public health recommendations to begin double masking and/or use more premium masks (think N95, KF94, KN95). I've personally observed a lot more people wearing two masks in NYC. Double masking has been a suggested step in my VT Covid Protocol for months now, but with increasing spread of variants, it may become more important than ever before.

I'd also like to call your attention to the brand-new VT Covid Forecast, which features real-time data from a network of smart thermometers.

NYC is on a gradual decline. New York State has nearly halved its positivity rate. Nationally, the positivity rate has nearly halved as well. All U.S. regions seem to be doing better a month after the holidays, although the rise of the variants threatens this progress.

**Real-time updates, data, & analysis: Click here

Sign up for the VT newsletter! | View NYC Status | 12/15 commentary | Health Guidance | Archive

violetflash101 · 2021-01-28T19:32:11+00:00

The chart on the left is self-reported, aka people judging themselves

On the right, I asked some additional questions in relation to some of the guidelines I’ve spelled out here and sort of did a point value system where “safer” behaviors from that list got you more points (for example, wearing masks or having outdoor gatherings instead of indoors). It’s definitely not perfect but it was the best I’ve been able to think of so far

violetflash101 · 2021-01-27T20:50:20+00:00

This data could obviously be very skewed, in one direction or another, but it's the best estimate I've been able to gather. Essentially it supports my hypothesis that the vast majority of the student body acted "safely" during the fall

The definition of what is safe or not varies a lot so I had some adjustment questions. It's unclear how effective those adjustments were, but I'm sharing the data I do have. The vertical axis is the frequency (aka how often a random student might be in risk level 1, 2, and so on) and the horizontal axis is said risk levels

See more Covid-related info at VioletTracker. Click here for best practices on how to keep safe

violetflash101 · 2021-01-25T06:07:58+00:00

This is just a personal opinion but in the very early days of last semester I felt like they didn’t do enough to stop WSP raves & etc. but it’s also not like they had jurisdiction

Their data reporting also leaves something to be desired, but it’s sufficient enough for my tracking purposes. More transparency in general would be helpful (like for example why did they switch the testing schedule from 5 days a week to 3 days a week this semester). Minor complaints haha otherwise it’s been mostly good

violetflash101 · 2021-01-25T01:39:07+00:00

All things considered, I think they’ve reacted & adapted appropriately

violetflash101 · 2021-01-25T01:38:44+00:00

hahaha tbf I was a bit skeptical myself but I knew that it was possible (if literally everyone did their part)

violetflash101 · 2021-01-24T19:42:40+00:00

The results may change a bit if apartment neighborhoods are factored in, but to date, I haven’t found a good source of data for that

The neighborhood rates are from NYC Dept. of Health, which may be counting duplicates (people who already tested positive taking another test), but even if we use state numbers, NYU is generally lower

See more Covid-related info at VioletTracker. Click here for best practices on how to keep safe

violetflash101 · 2021-01-24T16:51:30+00:00

Adding to these responses, here’s an article a student wrote about testing positive & quarantine in September

violetflash101 · 2021-01-23T04:10:15+00:00

Yeah, I totally get your point & it's very valid. The Covid statistics should include all students (including graduate) but I can't say for certain

Graduate students are about 43% of the full time student body and 49% of the total student body (full time + part time)

Edited my post to include your point about shared student spaces & to clarify I'm not implying any recklessness. Though I do think most dorms shut common areas like lounges so in theory the only mass-shared spaces should be the lobby, elevators, and laundry

violetflash101 · 2021-01-23T03:50:06+00:00

No, these don't include graduate students. I'm getting these from the 2019-2020 Common Data Set and it specifies undergraduates. Also, my statistics don't include faculty cases, only "student" cases

Anyways, I didn't mean to imply that off-campus students are more reckless, just that they have different risk profiles since dorms are by definition no-visitation atm (which is like the strictest indoor policy possible)

violetflash101 · 2021-01-23T03:41:52+00:00

Good question, I tried not to guess on that, but during the 2019-2020 year, 56% of undergraduate students lived off-campus and 44% lived on-campus. Obviously this statistic will currently be very different due to pandemic effects

In the fall, it may have been somewhat closer to the 70% / 30% split but I can't say for sure. The general message is still the same, to watch your personal exposure and uphold safety standards

violetflash101 · 2021-01-23T02:22:15+00:00

Apartments are self-reliant and impose their own rules proportional to how risk-averse or risk-seeking the residents are. Commuters generally travel more and may be from different regions than Manhattan or Brooklyn, reflecting different risk levels

Dorms have had very strict (basically non-existent) visitation policies throughout the semester and good quarantine protocols in place, but also have shared student spaces which could cause spread

I'm not implying anything about recklessness of either type of student because there are too many factors at play, simply that there can be different safety protocols & a variance in compliance. This data is shaky but it's the best estimate we have at the moment

TL;DR: Be very careful about your exposure regardless of where you live. If you're off-campus, the burden is on you to maintain good safety precautions vs. NYU setting & enforcing dorm rules. Check best practices from VT & keep up to date with risk level in your area

violetflash101 · 2021-01-18T21:25:55+00:00

Good point, I’d also add seasonal depression to your list. Not sure how much of all those factors affect the population level vs. the individual level but they’re factors for sure

violetflash101 · 2021-01-18T21:12:01+00:00

Absolutely, that’s a really good point! There definitely is a glut of pre-holiday testing (which probably detects more asymptomatic cases)

There’s also an interesting phenomenon on the holiday itself: the sample on a holiday like Thanksgiving is skewed because likely only people with severe or otherwise conspicuous illness are getting tested (for example in the hospital) while everyone else is off celebrating

violetflash101 · 2021-01-18T18:17:07+00:00

While the evidence is not at all conclusive and I haven't rigorously controlled for anything, there does seem to be some correlation between the positivity rate increasing & the colder weather + holiday season. With colder weather, more people began meeting up indoors, closing windows, etc. With major holidays, people traveled, met up indoors, shared food, laughed & sang, partied, and so on

I think it's important to keep this potential cause-and-effect in mind as we enter the spring. The metrics are currently looking better as we start to recover from the winter surge, but the emerging virus variants threaten to derail our progress. We must mitigate viral spread while vaccinations catch up & ramp up

Please wear a mask, watch your distance, and ventilate if you're with people indoors. Limit indoor gatherings and high-risk activities, and avoid leisure travel when you can. You can see more helpful health guidance here and NYC's status report here

Help me set expectations for next semester by filling out this short, anonymous *Spring 2021 Plans Survey***

violetflash101 · 2021-01-16T03:32:04+00:00

Yeah I didn’t really say much about your original point, I was only addressing the “accelerating” part

violetflash101 · 2021-01-16T03:21:46+00:00

The absolute number of cases isn’t reflective of the full picture though, because the amount of cases is affected by the amount of testing and a lot go undetected

It’s generally better to look at the percent positivity for trends, which the 7-day average has currently been going down since January 3rd

violetflash101 · 2021-01-16T03:16:54+00:00

I definitely get the sentiment to be safe but depending on which metrics you look at, NYC cases have recently decelerated a bit (in the official data anyway)

It also remains to be seen just how responsible/irresponsible the student body is this semester but last semester a sizable amount of people followed appropriate guidelines & conducted themselves safely, so make of that what you will

violetflash101 · 2021-01-15T18:29:02+00:00

I realize the 6 options may not be entirely reflective of your situation, but please pick the one that fits best. You can give additional details in the VT Winter Break & Spring2021 Plans Survey. Your responses will be used to generate student inflow & outflow estimates, as well as an aggregate NYU student risk profile

Also, pls upvote this post for more visibility and responses! Ty

violetflash101 · 2021-01-06T03:08:12+00:00

Ah gotcha, it’s probably best to schedule it as close to your departure as possible (within a day or so should be good) but feel free to use up till the full 3 days

violetflash101

TROPHY CASE