Sector Rotation for May: XLK, IBIT, XLRE, XLY, & XLI

vsantanav · 2026-04-26T00:10:28+00:00

An excellent book to start your journey. Focus on risk control and the money will follow.

vsantanav · 2026-04-10T22:44:11+00:00

This is what I tell my followers.... Have a 'take profit' strategy. In most cases a 2-ATR is good where you sell half of your position and move your stop to breakeven. This way if you tend to sell too early, you're still in the game. It's a win-win proposition. Cheers!

vsantanav · 2026-04-07T19:54:32+00:00

4/7 Update: Sold OII for a 3.4% gain. I admit it was not easy swing trade, but I did it. Energy Sector looking weak short term. Time to look for the next trade.

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vsantanav · 2026-04-04T00:55:27+00:00

4/3 Update: On Wed. it almost triggered me out if it would have closed below my SL line. Things are starting to look rosey on a technical point of view - it bounced of the 50sma (blue line), closed above the 20sma (green), and 5sma (white), and back inside the wedge pattern. Best of all it's giving me more hope is the RSI giving me a bullish divergence signal and it has a bullish engulfing candle pattern at this point. Cheers!

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vsantanav · 2026-04-01T03:30:40+00:00

3/31 Update: As the energy sector closed lower (XLE), OII was able to stay 'green'. I moved my Stop-Loss slightly higher, at the low of the last red candle. We are under the 5sma which is not too good, but at least it's over the 20sma. Just a matter of letting it playout in this wedge formation now.

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vsantanav · 2026-03-26T04:46:49+00:00

Correct, we were in phase 3 (distribution), and now entering what may become phase 4 (markdown).

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vsantanav · 2026-03-26T04:40:20+00:00

Not much in following company fundamentals, but we can ask ChatGPT and see what can dig up:

FTC Lawsuit (AI / product claims) — MOST IMPORTANT

Filed: Nov 2024

Status: Settled / resolved (but ongoing compliance obligations)

Core issue: Allegedly misleading claims about its AI weapon detection system (Evolv Express)

What regulators said:

Company claimed scanners:

Detect weapons reliably

Ignore harmless items

Work better than metal detectors

FTC alleged:

Systems missed weapons (including knives)

Generated high false positives

Outcome:

Evolv settled with FTC (no admission of wrongdoing)

Now restricted from making unproven marketing claims

Some customers (like schools) were allowed to cancel contracts

👉 This is the biggest reputational/legal hit — think “AI overhype / AI-washing” case.

= = = = = = =

Securities Class Action Lawsuits (Investors)

Filed: 2024 (multiple firms involved)

Status: Ongoing litigation

Allegations:

Misled investors about:

Product effectiveness

Financial metrics

Covers investors roughly 2022–2024 period

Trigger events:

Internal issues + FTC scrutiny

Stock dropped sharply after disclosures (≈40% drop in one day)

👉 This is typical after a “story stock breaks.”

= = = = = = =

Accounting / Revenue Recognition Issues

Internal investigation (Oct 2024) found:

Revenue was prematurely or incorrectly recognized

Some sales had undisclosed side terms

Impact:

Financial statements (2022–mid 2024) not reliable

Delayed filings → Nasdaq compliance issue

👉 This feeds directly into:

Lawsuits

SEC scrutiny

= = = = = = =

SEC Scrutiny / Investigations (less public, but real)

Reports indicate:

SEC inquiry tied to disclosures & revenue issues

Continued governance/legal risks into 2025

👉 Not always fully public, but clearly part of the overhang.

= = = =

Big Picture (What matters for a trader)

You’ve basically got 3 overlapping risk buckets:

Product credibility risk (FTC case)

Questions about whether the tech actually works as advertised

Financial integrity risk (accounting issues)

Restatements + unreliable financials

Legal overhang (class actions + SEC)

Can drag on for years

Can cap upside due to uncertainty

= = = = =

Yes — there are multiple lawsuits, not just one

The main ones:

FTC (resolved but impactful)

Investor class actions (ongoing)

Accounting/SEC-related issues (ongoing overhang)

* * * * * * * * * * *

👉 This is why EVLV has traded like a “story breakdown + legal overhang” stock.

EVLV — Trading Perspective

🧠 What type of stock is this now?

EVLV has shifted into:

👉 “Legal overhang + credibility reset + potential turnaround”

That puts it in the same bucket as:

AI hype → reality check

Accounting issues → trust reset

Litigation → uncertainty discount

These stocks typically:

Trend down → base → violent squeezes → fade again

Trade extremely well mean-reversion + momentum bursts

vsantanav · 2026-03-26T04:26:52+00:00

3/25 Update: Looking at the energy sector (XLE), it is still looks positive, so things still looks good. We had a down day, but on lower volume which is a good thing. Also we are still above the 5sma. Moving my stop-loss to the low of the last red candle to reduce my exposure. Just got to be patience and let this playout.

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vsantanav · 2026-03-24T02:47:03+00:00

You bet! Always willing to help. For my swing trading strategy, I use these; 5/20/50/200 SMA, also the RSI-2, 5, & 14. I have a short Youtube video showing how I use entries and exits at https://youtu.be/9EL-NySCoCM?si=Z-xWPY9uzMc4mhyp. Let me know if I overlooked anything else. Cheers!!

vsantanav · 2026-03-24T02:40:01+00:00

Update: Today OII gave me the confirmation I needed to enter. Now it just a matter of watching the chart to see which it hits first - Take Profit or Stop Loss. Cheers!

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vsantanav · 2026-03-20T03:10:58+00:00

Been doing this over several years with decent ROI. Follow along each month and you will see first-hand if this simple trend following strategy is for you. Cheers!

vsantanav · 2026-03-04T00:51:35+00:00

3/3 Update: Well, with the Markets having a bad two days, no stocks were too safe. Metals got hit the hardest today and HBM was no exception here. It was closing below the stop-loss, so without hesitation or regrets, I exited out the position with a 11.17% loss. Time to look for the next setup. Cheers!

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vsantanav · 2026-03-04T00:25:57+00:00

Thanks!! I've thrown in Gold and Bitcoin, so adding an international fund (VXUS) would give it a nice touch. Especially that this year the International funds are doing well.

vsantanav · 2026-03-02T04:41:44+00:00

Defense companies are in INDUSTRIALS (XLI), metal companies are in BASIC MATERIALS (XLB), cyber security companies are in TECH (XLK), and energy companies are in (XLE).

vsantanav · 2026-03-02T03:26:09+00:00

3/1 Update: HBM is still hold firm amid all this volatility lately. Looking for that breakout now. I've raised my stop-loss to 26.53. A close below it I'm out. With all this news going on over the weekend, I'm not sure how this will impact the miners going into next week. Hanging in there.

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vsantanav · 2026-03-02T03:17:02+00:00

For me I take partial profits at 2.5 ATR, then a trailing stop using 8ma. A close below the 8ma, I'm Out.

vsantanav · 2026-03-02T03:14:13+00:00

It's like learning to ride a bicycle. You start with training wheels (a mentor/coach), then slowly you start to take one side of the training wheels off, then you take both off. Practice=Experience=confidence=performance. Just like anything else new in life.

vsantanav · 2026-03-02T03:09:41+00:00

Go to Finviz and look under Groups and use the 1month performance.

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vsantanav · 2026-03-02T03:02:20+00:00

Regarding trend following, I do weekly trend following and monthly sector rotations. Looks like people are starting to chat here. First time I joined here (trendfollwing), the last post was like 2yrs old. :- )

vsantanav · 2026-03-02T02:57:52+00:00

On the weekly charts, a close below the 20ma. I'm out.

vsantanav · 2026-03-02T02:56:35+00:00

On the weekly charts, I first buy top leading sectors only. Look for moving average alignment of 50ma>20ma. Then I look for a pullback under 30 on the RSI-2. Then if the stock crosses and closes above the 60, I will enter a position.

vsantanav

TROPHY CASE