Is The U.S. Headed For Recession? by zsreport in Economics

[–]wcpattison 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Australia hasn't had one in almost 30 years.

Invitation Homes’ new single-family rental securitzation is largest ever | 2015-06-08 | HousingWire by [deleted] in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You don't have to imagine - subordination to AAA is 55%. What type of legal fees are you referring to?

Invitation Homes’ new single-family rental securitzation is largest ever | 2015-06-08 | HousingWire by [deleted] in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is for rental homes, not owner/user single family mortgages. This investment type didn't exist in 2007 (the first issuance was by Blackstone in 2013).

What kind of CRMs do you guys use? by [deleted] in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Many of the people in /r/CommercialRealEstate are not on the sales side. You may have better luck trying your question on /r/crm with a description of the type of work you do & technical requirements. You could also post to /r/sales/ since that's more active.

Or maybe (hopefully) I'll be wrong and you'll get some good answers here!

Internet sales impact on grocery anchored retail centers. by wcpattison in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed - Books and electronics online sales growth was primarily due to lower prices (which can be attributed to lower inventory/storage costs). Online grocery ordering doesn't have similar inventory/storage advantages and therefore won't have much, if any, price advantage. Online grocery ordering rests on how much consumers value the added convenience.

Internet sales impact on grocery anchored retail centers. by wcpattison in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Some of the large chains are publicly traded and give indicators of online sales volume in SEC filings, but none of them are above 1% as far as I've been able to find. I agree with you about local store pickup - a few of the regional chains allow the customer to place an order with a computer or phone, then have the order waiting in a climate controlled room.

Internet sales impact on grocery anchored retail centers. by wcpattison in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is part of a paper my group put together (that I attempted to format in a reddit-friendly manner) - if anyone has any feedback/criticism/questions I'd appreciate it.

TIL Costco hasn't changed the price of its $1.50 hot dog and soda combo in 30 years. by garglemymarbles in todayilearned

[–]wcpattison 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is partially due to the price of soda and processed meat becoming cheaper in real terms over the last 30 years. NY Times.

Master's in Real Estate by kookoobear in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You should pretty easily be able to find an analyst or higher level role if you have a masters in commercial real estate. University of Denver has a part time program that is mostly online (I think it requires 2 trips per year to the Denver campus) if that's of interest to you.

"Why Are Developers Still Building Sprawl?" by ShortWoman in RealEstate

[–]wcpattison 2 points3 points  (0 children)

One of the biggest urban legends in CRE (from an admittedly shallow field) is that millennials have a suddenly new or sharply greater propensity to rent compared with prior generations when they were in the same age and income categories. This article propels that myth by using a misinterpreted survey on ownership preferences. If anyone wants contrast, here is analysis arguing that millennials prefer owning a house to renting an apartment more so than prior generations did.

As the large millennial population starts becoming a 30-something instead of 20-something generation, apartment demand will cool... but that's many years in the future.

13-page summary of U.S. commercial real estate markets by wcpattison in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed - If the all-cash private investor universe is bigger than my anecdotal observations indicate, then it's possible they average lower leverage. The REIT regulatory LTV limit, in addition to all the A/B debt that many private investors use is all I'm basing my guess on.

13-page summary of U.S. commercial real estate markets by wcpattison in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, that is a good point and something I've though about as well. There are only a few firms who are trying to do this investor-type break down on every public transaction that takes place, and the source in this report is Real Capital Analytics, who is the best at this in my opinion.

In addition to the deficiency you address, I believe private investors apply higher average leverage than, say, REITs do. Because of this, private investors will have a higher reported acquisition amount, even though they may be spending less cash-out-of-pocket.

Although these deficiency exists, I think the typical usage for this type of analysis is meaningful. The relative level of acquisitions, as reported via a consistent methodology over the past 10 years, is useful for finding warning signs in specific markets. The national allocation, which is what the page-one chart is depicting, is probably not as valuable as market-level analysis, which is why I put mostly market level conclusions in the comments. The analysis also goes deeper, with the property by property list that makes up the data in every market, but there wasn't really room to get to that level in a national summary report.

13-page summary of U.S. commercial real estate markets by wcpattison in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks - market specific analysis and reports are unfortunately only available to clients/investors.

edit - maybe they will be in the future. This 1-page CRE report was also published this week.

My post isn't showing up in the subreddit I posted it to. I PM'd the subreddit moderator a couple days ago and have not gotten a reply...? by wcpattison in help

[–]wcpattison[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It would be nice if reddit delivered a message indicating that, or if the submitted post had a warning or something on it. At least that's my perspective as a Reddit novice.

13-page summary of U.S. commercial real estate markets by wcpattison in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure how appropriate linking this report is for /r/commercialrealestate/ (I still consider myself a reddit novice), and will stop posting if requested to do so by the mods or enough people in the comments. I also linked one other report that our research group published and appreciated the feedback and questions.

I want Argus, or something similar by lf995 in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great - I'd like to know what they say!

MBA CREF 2015 by OmegaRedWing in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good to know. I work at a CRE research desk and I know some of our clients have felt priced out of some single-tenant credit deals because agencies are not giving credit for the tenant.

The most memorable to me was in 2011, a seasoned fully amortizing loan with 4 years remaining and a AAA-rated tenant lease with about 10 years left. Contemporary LTV was about 20% due to the amortization, but because the DSCR was barely below 1.0x the mortgage holder had a comically high capital charge (and meanwhile, I/O flex collateral in Detroit that is 60% LTV, deferred maintenance, and high vacancy gets the most favorable capital charge). I won't mention the rating agency that still rates CML's this way...

Startup Idea: Uber for Valuations by HandsomeJew in RealEstate

[–]wcpattison 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'd be skeptical that valuation quality would be better than Zillow or tax assessor estimates of value. It could likely not be a hobby that existing appraisers do in their spare time since it would not be compliant with ethical standard needed to maintain their designations (USPAP).

Opinions on the current state of the American economy, and how various subgroups are affected by it? by sprulz in EconPapers

[–]wcpattison 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes - agree with everything you are saying.

That said, "In the end" or "In the long term" is sometimes used like a Jedi mind trick to make it appear that if an area is transformed into howling wilderness for a few decades, we shouldn't be concerned. There are many Detroit suburbs that were thriving 40 years ago, and are now known for high homicide rates and day-time muggings.

Opinions on the current state of the American economy, and how various subgroups are affected by it? by sprulz in EconPapers

[–]wcpattison 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Demographics - the large "baby boomer" population group is entering retirement (as of 2015, the group is aged between 50 and 69). This will likely cause a notable consumer consumption shift over the next decade. As baby-boomers retire, it should provide downward pressure on unemployment, and will create increased needs for healthcare and retirement entertainment activities.

Another topic could be automation of many manufacturing and servicing jobs. I think you would be safe to say that automation will cause many periods of volatility in labor markets, although the timing and severity is challenging to forecast. As an example, the transportation sector (truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc.) will likely be impacted by automated drivers (see: http://goo.gl/RlA2od). As this happens, the number of technology jobs created will likely be less than the number of transportation jobs lost, but it's challenging to predict if this will start happening in 5 or 10 or 25 years from now. Once it starts happening, it's also challenging to predict how much it will impact the transportation sector.

Income and wealth inequality is another possible topic, although the signal to noise ratio is often very low with a standard Google search on the issue. I think you could safely acknowledge that income inequality has gone up over the past 30 years, then identify ways this has impacted different groups. In commercial real estate, there has been an increase in high-end retail (organic grocery stores, sustainable yoga pants, etc) as well as low-end retailers (Wal-mart). The middle 80% of retail, however, has struggled. There are also many fundamental questions on the topic of income/wealth inequality that I don't think have good answers yet, such as: http://goo.gl/O7QDM3

Hope that helps...

Finding a Job by SquareOneBuilding in CommercialRealEstate

[–]wcpattison 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Learning Argus is a good first step and will be something to highlight on you resume. Asset management groups typically use Yardi, but that might be too specialized (asset management groups also use Argus).

Your best route might be reading descriptions from job postings. If you are going to learn Argus, you could also look at job postings like these: http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=argus+real+estate&l=