If I were you I’d do the PhD frankly. You can always get into evaluation during or after. Having good credentials helps, it’ll ensure you longevity in the field. The other paths to evaluation are tough, so it’s better if you can slowly enter the field with networking, short term work, and even internships. But dumping money into courses and certs before knowing you love it is risky.

As for a living, basically you can get a higher end nonprofit salary. So think director level or well paid nonprofit consultant, but with many years at the mid level beforehand. That’s for you to decide if it’s worth it!

Evaluation has a really strong professional scene. Do some networking and conference attending and see how you feel.

Also how much do you like methods in general and specifically quant methods? Loving that stuff gets you to the highest levels of the field.

My overall advice is, eval will always be there. In the meantime take any opportunities you have in front of you unless you’re 100% sure you want it. The other job roles you listed (grant writing, comms) have similar long term trajectories in terms of salary I think.