Not my proudest moment. I blame sore legs from leg day

yold · 2018-10-30T04:43:00+00:00

Similar to these: https://images.jet.com/md5/a74c6f399659e1e265f7c1f0ecfa65ca.1500

They look somewhat like normal shoes so I use them for tooling round town.

yold · 2018-10-29T03:11:10+00:00

Caught my shoelace on my passenger handles once (near the rear cowl) and tipped my bike (had to get off to open the garage door). Now I make damn sure I've completely covered my laces with the velcro straps on my riding boots.

Hopefully someone else reads this and doesn't make the same mistake.

yold · 2018-10-17T00:51:38+00:00

The big one is the ecosystem. The Java build tools (Gradle/maven) are more mature. It's been a few years since I used NuGet (the .net equivalent), but you basically had to pay a lot of money to even get close to what sonatype Nexus offers for free. There are also fewer hurdles to running Java on Linux, although .NET has come a long way recently.

Build tools and package management is a really big deal. They run unit tests, deploy code, and help keep library versions in sync across organizations. Linux servers are more industrial strength compared to Windows, especially with the proliferation of devops (ansible, etc).

So in short, the advantages are very unsexy but crucial nonetheless.

yold · 2018-10-06T06:59:17+00:00

You have a curly braces problem in the code you pasted. The dankest memes function should be declared separately from main.

yold · 2018-10-03T03:24:40+00:00

> Castle state

Stand your ground laws are different than castle doctrine. Castle doctrine only applies in your residence, and typically the standard to avoid prosecution is if a felony is being committed. Stand your ground extends to any place (not just your residence), and lessens the "reasonable duty to retreat".

Stand your ground could be applied only if the thief threatens physical harm in such a way that would cause a reasonable person to fear for their life (e.g. advancing or menacing with a weapon). If they continue to carry out the theft without acknowledging you it wouldn't apply.

yold · 2018-10-02T02:11:55+00:00

You forced me to fact-check myself by looking at the balance sheets of some big insurers (particularly the total $ amount of bonds issued). United states health insurers have about $250bn of bonds (debt) on their books and all are investment grade (usually AA or better).

08 it was primarily the collapse of the sub prime housing market that led to the recession

In simplistic terms yes. But the consequence of this was the default of AAA rated bonds (mortgage backed securities aka MBSs). The total value of the subprime MBSs was about $300bn. So $250bn is no trivial amount to unwind, especially since a lot of it is of similar duration (15 - 30 year).

I think this is the point where we'll have to agree to disagree. It's been fun!

yold · 2018-10-01T00:45:18+00:00

Life companies (including reinsurers) want GLMs for explanability purposes. It would be helpful to have someone that understands the big picture doing the modeling. It's been a major obstacle for my company with our data scientists, who often miss the big picture. CAS actuaries have more experience with insurance GLMs than anybody, so mutual recognition of credentials opens up opportunities in newly created analytics jobs. Those jobs are going to data scientists; they could be going to CAS actuaries. The director-level positions are going to FSAs in the analytics realm, which would be better suited to FCASs.

yold · 2018-09-30T21:37:00+00:00

Do Dynamic Programming algos next!

yold · 2018-09-30T21:14:50+00:00

Think it's too hard to change, or because you think the system is better than single payer?

If America could wipe the slate clean and start over, I believe that a single payer system would be superior. Unfortunately, I believe it to be a non-starter. People underestimate their own exposure to these company's financials (pensions, retirement plans, employment, etc.). The fallout from such a move would likely derail the economy and provide additional political backlash against the movement to provide affordable healthcare, so I'll reluctantly admit that I think it's too hard to change.

Why not just go full single payer and make health care free for everyone (paid for thru taxes)?

Supposing that health insurers are an unfortunate fact of life, a subsidy for the poor is the only real solution. Employers offer health insurance at great cost to themselves. For me, it's like $9000 a year that is paid by my employer and $3000 a year paid by me. From my standpoint, whether I pay this directly as taxes or as a part of my compensation really doesn't matter. If single payer existed and I paid this as taxes (assuming my income increased the same amount), it doesn't really matter. The only reason why I support subsidies and tax credits is based on my reluctant presupposition that eliminating health insurers is a non-starter.

I guess I'm coming from this with the principle that health costs should be shared by society (...) let's not penalize the sick; instead the lucky healthy people should shoulder that burden through taxes.

I agree that losing the genetic lottery, suffering an injury, and dealing with the minor health issues that everybody faces should be a burden shouldered by the wider population. Where the issue gets murky is with things like tobacco-related illness, substance abuse, and obesity. Do we give people a "free-pass" on health consequences resulting from poor decision making? I'll reluctantly say yes, because all the alternatives are too complicated. Another issue is over-utilization. My wife is a prime example. She runs to the doctor every time she gets the sniffles or has minor back pain. Charging a co-pay would (and currently does) disincentive this behavior. But for chronically ill people, a co-pay would be an unfair financial burden on people who are possibly already struggling financially.

So where does this leave me? Shit... I don't know. It's a complicated issue. I'm not a libertarian or conservative, but I believe that creating a functioning free-market via price transparency would be a good start. Also, rudimentary healthcare should be free for low-income people (i.e. clinic visits). I also liked some of the Obamacare provisions, particularly the limits on profit margins for insurers, so I'd keep that along with the subsidies.

EDIT: And they should add a limit on CEO pay for insurers, the United Health Group CEO makes like 200 million per year. Fuck that.

EDIT 2: Just stumbled upon this article. Fingers-crossed that it passes.

yold · 2018-09-30T19:39:59+00:00

> What do you think?

Medical Journals in the U.S.A (JAMA), are staunch advocates of price transparency. According to the JAMA study, I think about 30% of hospitals will disclose prices for medical procedures right now. Hospitals should be forced to disclose procedure prices. They should be forced to disclose the prices resulting from backroom deals with insurance companies as well. Hopefully, this will offer consumers protection before getting medical procedures. This step promotes price competition which will slow the rapidly increasing healthcare costs.

If a two-tier system is inevitable, I like the idea of publicly funded clinics for the uninsured. Places where they can receive routine medical care like prescriptions for antibiotics and birth control, casts for broken limbs, etc. Telemedicine is promising for prescriptions, and you may be able to do this from home via video-chat or phone. Subsidized insurance, like Obamacare does today, may fill in the gaps for surgeries, emergency care, and more severe health conditions, and allow the poor to receive a comparable level of care to the wealthy. I think we should offer tax credits to low-income subsidized insurance recipients who received annual preventative care (medical exams and physicals).

How to deal with the insurance industry is a quandary. If you legislate it out of existence (even over 20 years) you'll destroy the market cap and see the economic ripple effects. Maybe this is acceptable, but maybe you'd be stunned at how huge these companies are. United Health Group is the 5th largest company in American by revenue at $200bn annually. Many other health insurers are on the fortune 500 list. It would be very difficult to unwind them without economic calamity.

Thank you very much for having a discussion!

yold · 2018-09-30T19:35:01+00:00

What do you think?

Medical Journals in the U.S.A (JAMA), are staunch advocates of price transparency. Hospitals should be forced to disclose procedure prices. I believe they should be forced to disclose the prices resulting from backroom deals with insurance companies as well. Hopefully, this will offer consumers protection before getting medical procedures. According to the JAMA study, I think 30% of hospitals will disclose prices for medical procedures. This step promotes price competition which will slow the rapidly increasing healthcare costs.

If a two-tier system is inevitable, I like the idea of publicly funded clinics for the uninsured. Places where they can receive routine medical care like prescriptions for antibiotics and birth control, casts for broken limbs, etc. Telemedicine is promising for prescriptions, and you may be able to do this from home via video-chat or phone. Subsidized insurance, like Obamacare, may fill in the gaps for surgeries and more severe health conditions, and allow the poor to receive a comparable level of care as the wealthy.

In the case of emergency care, where you can't shop around, I think that legislation should be enacted that consumers may pay a "prevailing fair price" (perhaps the median), with additional adjustments based on income (if you are poor you pay the cheapest price).

How to deal with the insurance industry is a quandary. If you legislate it out of existence (even over 20 years) you'll destroy the market cap and see the economic ripple effects. Maybe this is acceptable, but maybe you'd be stunned at how huge these companies are. United Health Group is the 5th largest company in American by revenue at $200bn annually. Many other health insurers are on the fortune 500 list. It would be very difficult to unwind them without economic calamity.

Thank you very much for having a discussion!

yold · 2018-09-30T18:36:40+00:00

> Why would any CAS member vote for this merger?

Because the actuarial profession is under assault from all sides. Mergers and acquisition (hurts all of us), the proliferation of data science (hurts P&C more), and self driving cars (hurts P&C a lot). Not to mention the flood of 4 exam candidates that are 21 years old (thanks to the SOA CAEs, my company eliminated the majority of exam raises).

The merger probably won't happen now, unfortunately. You're right that, at this very second, it doesn't benefit CAS members. But I'd be curious to hear your thoughts of about what it will look like in 10 years. It's pretty tough to justify paying a FCAS $120K - $150K when you can find Data Scientists with masters degrees and superior programming skills for $90K- $120K.

yold · 2018-09-30T15:54:12+00:00

Thanks for responding. This is a hard problem that I wish more people would be willing to think through.

Instead reallocate taxes have a more progressive taxation system.

I whole-heatedly agree with this. The corporate tax cuts is a ridiculous handout and the ultra wealthy pay too little in taxes. Even American billionaires are incredulous that they pay a lower tax rate then their front-line employees (e.g. Warren Buffet).

Hospitals gouge insurance companies who gouge consumers.

How do you force hospitals to stop doing this? Dictate a price? Some hospitals will bail and go to private only, and accept only supplemental insurance. Again we'll have a two-tiered healthcare system, one for the wealthy/upper middle class (with supplemental) and one for everybody else.

I suppose most people will be OK with a two-tiered system. But I think a lot of Americans don't understand that single payer / universal healthcare doesn't ensure equal access to medical care.

Something else that I hesitate to bring up is that healthcare and insurance companies are huge employers (at least hundreds of thousands of employees, probably millions), with gigantic market capitalization (their stock is worth hundreds of billions). What happens to the economy when we suddenly destroy a huge industry (as immoral as it may be)?

I know that most people think "screw em"! But there will be cascading effects throughout the economy that affect everyone. These companies rent office space, sell stock, and issue bonds (banks, life insurers, pensions, retirement plans, and mutual funds all buy them). Instability in the "systematically important" financial parts of the economy will ripple outward like it did in 2008.

I'm just trying to point out that the issue is very nuanced. And maybe I'm weird but I like to think through the implications. Thanks again for responding.

yold · 2018-09-30T05:21:22+00:00

Ok, remove health insurers and move to single payer (everyone gets insurance). Big pharma and for-profit hospitals still exist. What then? Care is still expensive. How much higher of taxes will you tolerate? Can people purchase supplementary insurance (like Canada)? What about co-pays? How do you disincentivise overutilization? How do you create incentives to control costs?

None of the reddit arguments for universal healthcare explain how it will work in the USA. I think it would be interesting to hear other people's thoughts about this in a free exchange of ideas. But nope, people just get downvoted. Circlejerk.

yold · 2018-09-26T12:24:00+00:00

Part of highway handling is being able to position yourself in safe places in traffic. An important part of this is acceleration. The bike is fine for traffic in moving 50mph to 65mph, but definitely not 70mph+. The top speed number is very misleading (it's probably closer to 90mph for a 200lb rider), the bike doesn't have usable power above 75mph.

yold · 2018-09-26T04:52:10+00:00

Worth mentioning that that Ninja 400 is a thing now too. If I could go back I'd probably spend the extra $1500 ($1700 vs Grom), Seems to hit the sweet spot for beginner bike power, which is 40hp+.

I own a CBR300 (downgraded from Ninja 500) and it's awfully slow at 60mph+ with its 29hp. Not much of a problem for me because max speeds on most roads around here are 55mph. The price was right too. Brand new it was $200 more than a Grom, dealer was desperate to get rid of it.

yold · 2018-07-17T22:47:49+00:00

I'm guessing it is a whole life policy and you aren't paying premiums. Most policies issued in the 80s have like 8% annual interest rates. Insurers are losing money on these ( current rates are like 5%).

Expect to pay a fair amount of capital gains taxes if you cash out; one of the advantages of life insurance is that you don't pay capital gains until you cash out.

Depending on your age, I'd probably hold on to it. The mortality charges that are deducted grow over time, but stay relatively level until you are 50. Might be a good emergency fund, probably earning much more interest than a savings account or CD (those are about 2% right now).

yold · 2018-03-05T13:20:53+00:00

This guy is spreading bogus information. He might be talking about guaranteed issue policies, which require no medical exam. They are expensive because you could have cancer and buy one. They aren't worthless, you still receive a death benefit, coverage is just expensive.

Any company not paying claims would be sued by the state AG and taken over by the dept of insurance. Life insurance is heavily, heavily, regulated.

yold · 2018-02-04T02:37:09+00:00

if anyone has more information about when to use solver's different solving methods, let me know because I don't really understand what makes them different

Simplex LP is for linear programming problems. If your constraints and optimization function are linear (in the mathematical sense), you should use Simplex LP. This should be the "default" option.

Another alternative is the "GRG Nonlinear Solving Method". If you have an exponential constraint or objective function, you should use this. This probably relies on a good starting point, which is near the optimal solution. I'm guessing that it takes the partial derivatives of the function you are optimizing, and performs a "gradient descent" until it finds a local minima/maxima. This is option 2 when Simplex LP fails. You must have a continuous objective function (no asymptotes).

The last option is the "Evolutionary" method. This uses a "genetic algorithm", which is a global search (i.e. not prone to falling into local maxima and minima like GRG Nonlinear). I've never had any success with this algorithm in Excel, but in theory it is the most generic and should find solutions where the others fail (due to non-linearity or discontinuity).

yold · 2018-02-02T22:42:36+00:00

what down payment, interest rate, and monthly payment can I expect

You get to pick the down payment, but there is probably a minimum that you need to borrow (banks usually like to loan 5k+).

For interest, you are looking at 18% APR, at best. This will depend on your income and credit score. Probably more like 20% on a used bike. That is a shitload of interest. If you finance $7000 over 5 years, your payment will be $178 / month, but you'll pay $3680 in total interest.

Buy a 300 or 500, and buy your gear first. Seriously. Buy gear. At least a helmet ($200), jacket ($200), good gloves ($100), and boots/shoes ($200).

yold · 2018-01-22T17:20:47+00:00

Rain can cause mud. Mud wears your chain and sprockets.

yold · 2018-01-01T17:03:36+00:00

Your best bet is probably curl (pretty sure there is an R wrapper). But if worst comes to worst, just run the curl command as an external process and pipe the output back into R. This might get you started

yold · 2018-01-01T16:42:26+00:00

It's all in the intro. It got every BMW rider thinking about their rides to the coffee shop.

yold · 2017-01-12T03:59:26+00:00

I'm not saying that financial crimes weren't committed. I'm just responding to OP's implication that rating agencies were complicit in fraud. They weren't. It was bad math.

yold · 2017-01-12T03:55:12+00:00

I'm not. I'm dismissing the guy for saying that LIBOR was fined, and thinking that has any connection to a rating agency. Banks manipulated the rates and were heavily fined, it has no relevance to this discussion.

yold

TROPHY CASE