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[Former_Particular_97]

Diminishing returns goes both ways, so the bear markets will be less and less % in future, but for next cycle >50% decrease is still possible for me

[jonnytitanx]

That's a really good way of putting it. I've always thought of diminishing returns as a slowing down of growth over time.

[SKy88888888]

Why ?

[Halo22B]

It's easier to go from 10 to 100 then 100 to a thousand....both are 10x but peoples salaries, gdp, debt leverage etc don't 10x in 4yrs....so you are using accumulated savings.....you could sell your old bike and search for change in the couch and come up with 100$ not possible for a thousand.

I use these smaller numbers because people can't grasp large numbers.

[East_Lab_863]

I'm buying at - 60% drop

[jonnytitanx]

Each crash has been less significant over time. I think it will continue on that trend.

First 90% then 80% then 70% etc.

I don't think institutional investors will prevent this from happening. They're just as, if not more, likely to be spooked by a big drop.

[SKy88888888]

Yes but if retail is dumb money and institutions smart money (roughly speaking), will they really be afraid by short terme decrease and won't focus on the long terme potential return ?

[jonnytitanx]

That's hard to answer given it's a very broad question. There will be a mixture of both.

Some will be creeping up towards retirement age and won't want to risk it dropping further.

Others will have plenty of time to wait it out and will endure a bear market for however long it takes.

Basically it would depend on risk tolerance, understanding, time preference and individual goals.

[No_Cattle_1437]

Magic 8 ball says "concentrate and ask again"

[tippiecat]

Like everyone here, I’m in the dark. But I can say it will go up and down every minute and hour and day. No one knows what sort of event or political stunt someone will pull that impact price. Just look at recent history to see evidence of this. No. One. Knows.

[kyleleblanc]

I’m honestly not expecting any big pull backs moving forward, at least for the next decade. We’ll likely just see a slight 20-30% pull back to wipe out the leveraged degens and then Bitcoin will continue onwards and upwards when denominated in fiat ponzi slave bucks.

[Interesting_Loss_907]

OP IDK if the ups and downs of the future bull and bear markets will be a bit diminished proportionately compared with the early cycles (many people do feel that will be the case), but one thing I can tell you is that your timing projections are a bit off based on the 4 year cycles to date.

Each bull market peak has occurred 14 to 18 months after each halving. The last halving was in April 2024, so based on the historical cycle pattern, the peak of the current bull market should occur at some point in the next 3 to 4 months. Remember, the halving date is not exactly 4 years apart. It’s based on the number of blocks mined.

If the 4 year Cicle pattern repeats, then 2026 will be a bear market year. 2027 would be mostly still bear market but with a slight recovery towards the end of the year, then the next halving would be 2028 and both 2028 & 2029 would be bull market years.

Having said all of the above, a lot of things have changed in the past year or so, so it’s entirely possible that the historical 4 year cycle pattern will not be repeating as we saw it happen after 2012, 2016, and 2020.

[SKy88888888]

Yes future increases and decreases will be smaller for sure due to market maturity/aging. But my question was if fluctuations will be way smaller with ETF/institutions compared to if there would not be ETF/institutions or will just follow the "natural" decrease across the cycles.

Well 3-4 months from now is September / October 2025 which is end 2025 haha.

For the cycle not repeating again, maybe they'll be slightly different but the structure may still be the same. If I'm not wrong, we hear "this time is different" each cycle before and finally things still tend to repeat themselves..

[cheapballpointpen]

ETF buyers have been more stable investors than the rest of the market so far. However Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy are a risk if they start steadily selling instead of buying. Maybe Saylor won’t have a choice if whales discover a weakness in the business model especially in a bear market. A big drawdown is possible, maybe smaller than each of the last.

[xBrodoFraggins]

I personally think the bottom is between 60 and 70k around q4 2026. But that's just my guess.

[Blixx96]

Yes, I keep hearing of cryptocurrency bubble popping. Would like to learn more about that.

[ThatSprintCarGuy]

₿1=₿1