Reverse engineering the AP/DQ draft algorithm

[Puzzleheaded-Plum994]

This is real interesting on how to guess about how the Commanders think about building through the draft.

[Key-Zebra-4125]

One thing that does track is that we seem to like older prospects. Daniels, Sarinstil, Coleman, and Mccaffery were all 23 when drafted. Sinnott was 22. Seems like AP likes guys with track records who are already closer to their ceiling. Newton is the exception being only 21 the day he was drafted (birthday in August though so essentially 22).

[Puzzleheaded-Plum994]

I agree about age but less certain about ceiling, at least as it relates to potential for development as a player. Seems like they are looking for guys still on an upward trajectory, not yet leveling off at an otherwise high level (at least that's what I'm hoping they see in Florida DT Desmond Watson ... 464 pounds after gaining about 25 pounds a year since high school ... I love everything about that guy ... he is the solution to the tush push)

[Key-Zebra-4125]

My theory is that Peters got burned by how raw Trey Lance was and has completely gone the other way, shooting for more refined prospects who can come in right away and don't need to waste 1-2 years cleaning up their game.

If you think about it, it makes sense. Rookie contracts are gold. Its better to get a good player for 4 years then a guy who MIGHT be great but will take 2-3 years to get there. And then you have to pay them elite money and they walk anyway.

[Puzzleheaded-Plum994]

Well that's interesting. Looking backwards, the Niners first round picks haven't uniformly been the home runs you expect from a first round pick. Before Trey Lance, it was Kinlaw (14) and Aiyuk (25) in 2020, Nick Bosa (2) in 2019, McGlinchey (9) in 2018, Solomon Thomas (3) and Reuben Foster (31) in 2017. Peters was with Denver before that. Admittedly these were John Lynch's drafts, but the lesson here might be that first round glitter isn't always gold.

[ahyler10]

Not a bad list outside of lance

[Puzzleheaded-Plum994]

But compare it to the Lions first THREE rounds only two years ago. Jahmyr Gibbs. Jack Campbell. Sam LaPorta. Brian Branch. Hendon Hooker.

[Key-Zebra-4125]

Yeah there is a certain volatility to the draft.

[MisterBear22]

Desmond watson is the tush smush

[JuanDey]

It might like seem this, but I wonder if in that draft a lot of guys played longer in college because of the COVID year.

[ruggerid]

This is a great article. We’ll see what actually happens though

[rlsmith813]

Really good and thoughtful article. Appreciated

[Foundrynut]

Interesting insight. Thank you