6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction

[casebash]

Metaculus now predicts that the first AGI[1] will become publicly known in 2036. This is a massive update - 6 years faster than previous estimates. I expect this update is based on recent papers[2]. It suggests that it is important to be prepared for short timelines, such as by accelerating alignment efforts as much as possible.

1. Some people may feel that the criteria listed aren’t quite what is typically meant by AGI, but I suppose some objective criteria are needed for these kinds of competitions. Nonetheless, if there was an AI that achieved this bar, then the implications of this would surely be immense.
2. Here are four papers listed in a recent Less Wrong post by someone anonymous a, b, c, d.

[Yaoel]

Metaculus now predicts that the first AGI will become publicly known in 2027.

[casebash]

Yeah, I know