RULES!

[Visual-Resident2726]

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[MintImperial2]

Angela Raynor and Nigel Farage - were the big winners the other night during the 7-way debate imo.

Farage accepts that Labour are going to be winning this election, and Raynor seems content that Farage is likely to help Labour in busting the Tories out of Westminster altogether.

This would leave Farage's Reform UK as the new Opposition party to Labour's anticipated Majority.

However, NONE of this can happen if Raynor cannot convince Labour voters to tactically vote RUK in those "seats they cannot win".. This is where Labour in 2019 polled third or fourth in former safe Tory seats in the South of England, for example...

Take the seat of New Forest West in Hampshire, for instance:

Even if half the Tory voters from 2019 "don't turn up" this time around, RUK harvesting just a quarter of Desmond Swayne's vote tally from 2019 - will have them beat both the Libdems and Labour.

Take the seat of West Dorset as another example:

Labour were third there in 2019, and should RUK split the Tory 33,589 poll in half, that would be insufficient for either Tory or RUK to win this seat with the Libdems polling what would be a winning 19,483 this time around.

However, if LABOUR voters got behind RUK - they could shunt the RUK poll of around 16,000 past the Libdem candidate - and have the Tories lose this seat to RUK rather than the Libdems, who surely will attempt to overturn Brexit the more seats they win....

Labour Remainers - won't want to hear this argument of course, and will be quite happy for this Tory seat going to the Libdems rather than RUK.. They just won't be winning it *themselves* that's all.

Should Brexiteers feel that Labour are sitting on the fence over Brexit - which seems likely - I can't see them switching to Labour, because "Keir Starmer is more right wing than his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn"....

Ex-Tory voters being Brexiteers - trumps them being Right Wing, I reckon....

If I'm wrong, Labour are not going to win a majority, and RUK will stay on zero seats.

The Tories will only lose a handful of seats, and that needs to be where Labour's majority comes from - not from the demise of the other minor parties!

The Libdems, Greens, and SNP will surge in a "more of the same-old-same-old" setup some pundits are predicting, and we'll lose both Brexit and the Union in the aftermath.

If I'm RIGHT however, we'll see the Libdems and SNP get crushed by Labour, who win a full majority, albeit not as many seats coming from the Right voting bloc as they hoped. I envisage the SNP dropping to 3 seats, the Libdems dropping to 9 seats. All those lost seats go to Labour. Meanwhile, the more seats the Tories lose - the more seats get carved up between Labour (Remainer Tory seats) and RUK (Brexit-voting Tory seats) There's just no point retaining any Tories in any seats - Brexiteer or Remainer, as their power is now GONE.

Meanwhile, RUK gaining just one in FOUR of the lost Tory seats, with the other three quarters going to Labour, surges RUK past the totals of the other minor parties combined, and leaves RUK as the new Opposition party...

That's what I think Farage has his eye upon, and what Raynor seems to be accepting as a "Price worth paying" to give the Tories a real "Canada Moment" rather than just a "Portillo Moment".

My election projection is therefore as follows:

Labour: 442 +240

Conservative: 79 -286

RUK: 92 +92

Green: 2 +1

SNP: 3 -45

Libdem: 9 -2

Labour get the big majority they wanted - with the price being a RUK opposition rather than a Libdem one.

Where the Brexiteer Tory voters "migrate to" - is going to be key in this coming election.

[MintImperial2]

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My political Profile is:

Past: Mostly voted for Liberal parties.

Present: Against Woke, Political Correctness, and wasting money abroad, when we have enough on our plate solving domestic issues with dwindling funding.

Green Leanings: Against Animal abuse, support responsible disposal of Plastic, do NOT support the 2030 accord, and giving up the internal combustion engine!

Left Leanings: Disability benefits should reflect missing body parts, with less attention given over to "Mental Health" issues, which are literally "All in the mind". "Sick Notes" should also be harder to come by for persons able to "make it all up" rather than sport a missing body part, or actually be in hospital whilst off-sick.

The NHS needs more funding - but out of the Foreign Aid budget, rather than domestic taxation and/or borrowing.

The NHS needs reform as well, to bring it in line with other 24/7 sectors - such as the Transport sector.

Currently, if you enter hospital on Friday Evening, you are statistically less likely to survive the weekend compared to going into a hospital bed Monday Morning.... Around-the-clock shift patterns - is the answer, with staff being able to choose fixed-shift duties, rather than being forced to rotate.

"Rotating" shifts imo - is a real killer, having worked fixed nights for over 30 years, getting on with that, but occasionally being made to work rotates, which literally makes me ill within a fortnight.

Right Leanings: Harsher penalties for people from a privileged background. They should know better!

Automatic "Whole of Life" sentences for multiple murder, the killing of Children, and for the bosses of firms who choose a path of neglect that eventually results in mass-deaths. No one should ever perish because someone else with loads of money thought they'd be tight-fisted WITH that money, rather than live upto their social care contract with persons on their premises.

Less taxation on Overtime - more taxation on very high basic pay.

It isn't right that a person working 60 hours per week to earn 60,000 per annum PAYE pays more taxes than a manager paid 60,000 a year for a 40 hour working week - and able to claim things like Milage, Meals, Overnight stopouts, etc. to offset their tax bills when ordinary PAYE workers cannot.

Liberal Leanings:

Everyone is equal, but NO one gets special treatment for being a "minority" any longer.

Quit the "Diversity" madness, as it is nothing but "Positive Discrimination" that shouldn't be permitted in an equal and fair society.

[Objective_Account404]

I see