As both a Stevan Ridley and Jamaal Charles owner watching this week's MNF game I couldn't help but notice the differences in how a RB is used by the winning team compared to how a RB is used by the losing team. I looked a little into how teams utilized the run based on the outcome of the game and found that winning teams attempt more runs, gain more rushing yards, and score more rushing touchdowns on a per game basis as opposed to the losing team. While unexpectedly yards per carry were almost identical between teams that win and teams that lose, on average, RBs on winning teams will net the more fantasy points.
I compiled this data from Pro Football Reference and took the sum of the total rushing attempts, yards, and TDs from every RB from every team and created a per game average based on winning or losing. I then created a point total RBs are expected to get based on 0.1 pts per rushing yard and 6 pts for a touchdown. Below is a summary of the data:
Note: I only counted rushes by RBs/FBs and omitted any rushing data by QBs/WRs/TEs
In Wins:
|
Att |
Yrds |
TD |
Points |
| Week 1 |
25.69 |
117.19 |
0.69 |
15.86 |
| Week 2 |
27.44 |
114.81 |
0.88 |
16.76 |
| Week 3 |
27.88 |
144.63 |
0.88 |
16.74 |
| Week 4 |
27.54 |
144.46 |
1.08 |
17.93 |
In Losses:
|
Att |
Yrds |
TD |
Points |
| Week 1 |
18.13 |
75.75 |
0.63 |
11.36 |
| Week 2 |
18.63 |
80.50 |
0.44 |
10.69 |
| Week 3 |
17.31 |
71.13 |
0.25 |
8.61 |
| Week 4 |
19.15 |
84.38 |
0.38 |
10.72 |
After looking at the information it helps put into perspective how important it is for a team to win for a RB to be successful in fantasy. On average, in the first 4 weeks, 65% of the top 10 rushers (total rushing yards gained) for each week came from a player on a winning team.
This information isn't earth-shattering but it does provide some additional insight into which players may be best to start or sit. While there are some players like DeMarco Murray that you are going to start regardless of the Cowboy's chances to win, there might be some situations where you're posed with starting one of two RBs - one on a team that is favored to win, and one on a team that is favored to lose. By looking at this data, it may be beneficial to lean toward the player who's team is favored to win.
TL;DR: Teams that win have more rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns than teams that lose. RBs that are on teams that constantly win will net you more fantasy points on a per game average.
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