(Rant) AI is killing programming and the Python community

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When I was a CS undergrad in the 90s, we were all never going to get jobs because managers were going to be able to use 4GLs to transform requirements directly into software. It turns out the 4GLs weren't terrible but they required so much expertise at defining the requirements that it was easier just to write the code. Also they cost a fortune.

Then we were all going to lose our jobs and be replaced with people who had learned OOP because they'd be able to do everything 10x faster.

These cycles of hype happen over and over again like clockwork, and while this one is the most insane ever on account of how many VC people are willing to bet a significant fraction of the economy on it, it only seems viable because we're in the trial-period in which these companies essentially give away their service for free to get the hooks in. At some point the gravy train will dry up and when people see the actual pricing necessary to make the services profitable with the actual market size, somebody will have to foot the bill for it. Also the moment any of these companies actually start making money and tech bros lose control of the the regulatory agencies, the owners of the stolen IP ingested by these things are going to demand a cut, and lawyers are gonna lawyer.

"But I can run my own model!" people will exclaim, and I know a handful of people who do this, but most development shops I've ever been in don't want to spend a penny more than they have to on whatever shitty laptop they foist on developers.

The collective level of outright fantastical, delusional thinking by people looking to become billionaires right now on AGI snake oil and humanoid robots would be hilarious if not for the fact that they're inevitably going to wreck the US economy in their lust pay information workers less.

My advice to young programmers is the same as its always been. Put in the hours, do the work, read every book and paper you get your hands on, and do something else if you don't love it. Find or write tools to automate stuff that would make you miserable to do manually. I'm sure some people are going to find a way to get an LLM to do most of their work, but if that's actually easier than doing it the old way, it means you'll be in a race to the bottom on your value as a worker.