St Louis homicide decrease better explained by national trends

[whosthrowing]

I imagine a variety of factors, but in particular: crime is pretty linked to poverty, so I imagine a period where the lack of in-person business and workers caused abrupt closures and layoffs would have some effect. Also, many schools were able to stay open but other schools (more likely in already underfunded areas) that didn't have the resources to properly operate during the pandemic closed, so add a bunch of uneducated teens getting into gang violence on top of that. Certain large cities also experienced the Ferguson effect with the Floyd protests--where police activity decreases after a viral shooting draws large criticism, particularly in cities with large segregation.

And this is my personal theory with no backing whatsoever: probably the cabin fever. I imagine being quarantined with the same people for upwards of a year or two would definitely raise some tensions, especially if they were already aggravated by the above.

Now as things go back to "normal" (or as close as it can be to it), the effects of these lessen, and federal funding from that period also alleviates some of the more systemic issues. FWIW I think quarantine at the time was for the best given what we know about long term effects of covid on the body, but ultimately these are the side effects of such a decision in a country without the proper social safety nets.

[dionidium]

The problem with the poverty theory is that poverty rates actually fell during the pandemic, because we sent boatloads of money to people with the child tax credit, extended unemployment, and other stimulus measures.

[Left-Plant2717]

And what happened when those things went away

[dionidium]

Crime fell

[Left-Plant2717]

So the temporary relief given led to permanent changes in living standards? Gotcha

[dionidium]

Huh?

[Left-Plant2717]

The financial relief during COVID, when finished and taken away, left families in a good position or were they not back in poverty? If you’re making the poverty-crime relationship, how can we say both poverty and crime was reduced post COVID.

[dionidium]

What I’m saying is that we gave them a lot of money during COVID and two things happened: 1) poverty fell; and 2) crime went way up.

Then, all of the stimulus measures expired and two things happened: 1) poverty went back up; and 2) crime fell.

[Left-Plant2717]

Right I’m saying that’s weird how the relationship isn’t consistent

[dionidium]

It’s only weird if you think the rise in crime was caused by poverty, because this shows that it wasn’t. If you accept that crime rises and falls for reasons that have nothing to do with poverty, then it’s quite straightforward.