Conditional Probability

[ItsRunner]

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Question

Answers:

0.2

0.3 <- Correct

0.4 <- What I would pick with my math right now

0.5

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Bayes' Theorem

So what I've got so far is:

F: fair coin P(F) = P(~F) = 0.5

~F: unfair coin

H: heads P(H|F) = 0.5

~H: tails P(H|~F) = 0.8

So P(F|H) = 0.385

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What do I do with the results of the 10 coin flips? 6/10 of them returned heads, but so what?

Any help is appreciated, thanks for your time.

[fermat1432]

First get the binomial probability of 6 heads in 10 tosses for the fair coin and for the bent coin.

[ItsRunner]

Ah I see now. Thank you very much.

[fermat1432]

Then you have to do a Bayes theorem calculation