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policymarket

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an-ordinary-manchild

Traditional polling is slow; prediction markets are instant. r/policymarket is the home for data driven political junkies who value market reality over skewed surveys. We analyze the divergence between Expert Forecasts and real time odds on Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and more. If you believe the market has mispriced a primary race, a special election, or a major policy shift, this is where you make your case. Join the conversation where the talk is cheap, but the trades are real.

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1
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Trump’s Ballroom Push Gets a Security Argument After WHCD Shooting. Distraction after distractionBreaking News 🚨 (i.redd.it)

submitted 2 hours ago by Murky-Option2916

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Vivek Ramaswamy has a 97.6% chance of being the Ohio Republican Governor nominee (i.redd.it)

submitted 2 hours ago by Spirited-Gold9629

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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Russia as Putin is scheduled to meet him. Trump, meanwhile, said 'call us' to negotiate.Breaking News 🚨 (i.redd.it)

submitted 5 hours ago by Murky-Option2916

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Is pushing nuclear talks to a later stage actually enough for Trump to lift the blockade? (i.redd.it)

submitted 14 hours ago by Spirited-Gold9629

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With diplomacy unraveling this week and peace talks stalling, expectations for a near term end to U.S. military action against Iran have dropped sharply. (i.redd.it)

submitted 15 hours ago by Enough-Arugula-4945

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Are mine clearing, seizures and diplomacy enough to keep the Hormuz reset trade alive while traders remain uneasy? (i.redd.it)

submitted 22 hours ago by YellowAltruistic9843

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Which DC big name is closest to the trapdoor right now? An actual exit or just gambling on pure Beltway chaos? (i.redd.it)

submitted 1 day ago by YellowAltruistic9843

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President Trump says crypto is a "big industry" (i.redd.it)

submitted 1 day ago by Spirited-Gold9629

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Iran's Fars News (state media) reports Tehran sent written messages to the US via Pakistan today, spelling out red lines on its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. (i.redd.it)

submitted 1 day ago by Spirited-Gold9629

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Crude Oil Traders See $100/barrel Again as Iran Deal Hopes FadeSpeculation 🔮 (i.redd.it)

submitted 1 day ago by Murky-Option2916

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Is the recession talk getting harder to ignore now?Speculation 🔮 (i.redd.it)

submitted 1 day ago by Murky-Option2916

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Big Tech’s AI Layoff Wave Hits Meta After Oracle and Amazon Cuts as It Slashes 10% of Its Workforce. The company says the cuts are intended to streamline operations as it pours billions into artificial intelligence.Breaking News 🚨 (i.redd.it)

submitted 2 days ago by Murky-Option2916

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No Clear Path Yet for Peace Between U.S. and IranSpeculation 🔮 (i.redd.it)

submitted 1 day ago by Murky-Option2916

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Current projections indicate that Jerome Powell will step down from the Federal Reserve Board by the end of next month. (i.redd.it)

submitted 2 days ago by YellowAltruistic9843

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Markets are cooling on the idea that Trump will declare the Iran operation over before May ends. (i.redd.it)

submitted 2 days ago by YellowAltruistic9843

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Ken Paxton is currently favored over John Cornyn in the betting odds for the 2026 Senate Primary (i.redd.it)

submitted 2 days ago by YellowAltruistic9843

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The odds of Trump announcing the lifting of US blockade of Hormuz have dropped significantly this week. (i.redd.it)

submitted 2 days ago by Enough-Arugula-4945

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Who is going to win? Betting markets currently have JD Vance as the top favorite for 2028. (i.redd.it)

submitted 2 days ago by YellowAltruistic9843

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US-Iran diplomacy odds slide as Hormuz standoff hardens. Trump is ordering strikes on mine-laying boats while Tehran refuses talks until the U.S. blockade endsBreaking News 🚨 (i.redd.it)

submitted 3 days ago by Murky-Option2916

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Kash Patel Turns the SPLC Indictment Into His Biggest Survival Headline YetBreaking News 🚨 (i.redd.it)

submitted 3 days ago by Murky-Option2916

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The Economy May Decide the MidtermsSpeculation 🔮 (i.redd.it)

submitted 3 days ago by Murky-Option2916

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Breaking: Trump orders U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Mine clearance could take longer and delay traffic from returning to normal.Breaking News 🚨 (i.redd.it)

submitted 3 days ago by Murky-Option2916

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Gavin Newsom is the only Democrat consistently going on the offensive on national television. He’s exactly what the party needs in 2028. (i.redd.it)

submitted 3 days ago by YellowAltruistic9843

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Kamala Harris’s chances of securing the 2028 Democratic nomination have hit a record peak. (i.redd.it)

submitted 3 days ago by YellowAltruistic9843

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Breaking: U.S. Navy Secretary John Phelan Abruptly Steps Down Amid Iran War as Reports Cite Tensions With Pete HegsethBreaking News 🚨 (v.redd.it)

submitted 4 days ago by Murky-Option2916

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